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alstry (35.66)

The Adoption of Technology Will Create MASSIVE Convulsions

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February 11, 2010 – Comments (16)

In the Alstrynomic Digital Age....the need for Real Estate is declining rapidly.  What we were talking about ten years ago we are implementing today.  Most economists don't even realize that rising unemployment is actually a sign of progress....not distress....but most economists are cyclical thinking and not revoluationary.

The issue is how do we deal with progress that is reducing the need for people to work....something that has NEVER happened before.  We see it everywhere.  Banking moving online reducing the need for branches, movies delivered online reducing the need for videostores, news delivered online reducing the need for newspapers and magazines.  The next two MAJOR areas will be healthcare and education.

Roughly 40 Detroit public schools will close, and the district will impose layoffs, furloughs and other concessions upon its staff this year to help close a $200-million deficit, emergency financial manager Robert Bobb said Wednesday.

We are rapidly moving our life online, in the not too distant future, our children, mine included,  will be likely going to school online and not in a building.....think of all the fuel we will save from not requiring 4,000,000 teachers to drive to and from work, heating, electrifying and maintaining hundreds of millions of square feet of space, the savings from not needing massive administration overhead around the nation....etc......

At this point the direction is clear, the process, manner and timing is still uncertain.

16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 11, 2010 at 10:19 AM, chk999 (99.98) wrote:

We are rapidly moving our life online, in the not too distant future, our children, mine included,  will be likely going to school online and not in a building.....think of all the fuel we will save from not requiring 4,000,000 teachers to drive to and from work, heating, electrifying and maintaining hundreds of millions of square feet of space, the savings from not needing massive administration overhead around the nation....etc......

 

I find this remarkably unlikely, since one of the largest parts of school is learning social skills and how to work in teams. Imagine trying to hire someone to work in a team who was home schooled their entire life.

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#2) On February 11, 2010 at 10:30 AM, alstry (35.66) wrote:

My wife is a first grade school teacher, you think you find it highly unlikely, can you imagine our discussions at home?

My guess is if one told passengers on the Titanic they would be flying from across the ocean in a few decades instead of sailing, they too would have thought it highly unlikely at the time

Learning off the internet will become a skill....a necessary skill for success....IMHO, socialization will come through other means like community centers, gyms, or some other more efficient means.

Guess what, you learn much faster off the interent because there is less down time....that means much more time for socialization;)...and few like socialization as much as Alstry.

 

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#3) On February 11, 2010 at 10:32 AM, Melaschasm (89.42) wrote:

I agree with Alstry???

Most homeschool students participate in group activities, and tend to be more mature than kids who attend public schools. 

From team sports, to homeschool parents teaching each others kids the subjects they are best at, the myth of homeschooling does not reflect the current reality.

I expect to see more digitial education, where students can work at their own pace, so that the smart kids are not goofing around in class because they are bored, as they wait for the not so smart kids to learn. 

I also see more and more jobs which can be done at home.  Why drive to corporate office everyday, when most of the tasks can be done from home?  Having employees work from home reduces the fixed costs of maintaining an office, and often makes for happier employees, because they do not have a long annoying commute to work.

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#4) On February 11, 2010 at 10:38 AM, alstry (35.66) wrote:

Also..."home" schooling will be different going forward....there will be a teacher(s) online giving instructions in many subjcts, there will be controls to make sure kids are actually learning, feedback on progress will be practically instaneous.......further, millions, hundreds of millions of kids will be able to get the "best" education instead of a few.....and anywhere in the world.

The key difference now is game changing technology is actually being implemented AND adopted. 

BUT THE CHANGES WILL BE CONVULSIVE BECAUSE IT WILL DISPLACE WELL OVER HALF THE CURRENT WORKFORCE IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

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#5) On February 11, 2010 at 10:43 AM, stan8331 (96.02) wrote:

Education and healthcare are two areas that will be the most resistant to the online wave.  At least for the foreseeable future, we humans still inhabit physical bodies that can't be effectively treated by IP packets.  And as chk999 pointed out, socialization by wire is also a very dubious concept.  In terms of the complexities involved with learning to work with others, participating in an occasional group activity is not in any way equivalent to full-time co-existence in a classroom setting. 

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#6) On February 11, 2010 at 10:52 AM, mrindependent (76.16) wrote:

 I agree with Alstry that technology is indeed having a silent but detrimental impact on real estate values.  but he has gone astray in his bold prediction that his children will be attending school online.  "Home" schooling is not an option for any two wage earner couples.  And CHK999 is correct that socialization is the most important part of school - this includes college as well. 

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#7) On February 11, 2010 at 11:01 AM, Melaschasm (89.42) wrote:

If you consider the number of hours kids spend in school listening to the same lecture the teacher gave to last years class, and the small number of hours the kids spend actually socializing, it would not take much for digital education to replace the lectures, and interactive activities to replace the brief socialization that schools provide. 

The big benefit of digital education is twofold.  One the students work at their own pace, if a student is good at english and bad at math, that student can spend more time with math, and learn more advanced english at a young age.  Meanwhile another student might be the opposit, and would be able to do the same with digital education, while traditional school education requires that both students learn both subjects at the speed of the slower student in each subject.  The second big benefit is the availability of many more specialized classes.  If a student wants to learn chinese as a second language, instead of spanish, digital education will make that possible.  If a student wants to learn advanced drawing, or computer programing, those subjects will also be available.

Community sports, debate clubs, science project groups, and various other social activities will be more available, because fewer financial resources will be needed for 'core' education.  The biggest benefits will go to students in small school districts, and in poor quality big city school districts.  With digital education, every student will be listening to the most skilled lecturers, and the lessons can even be specialised for individual learning abilities.

It will take time to break from the traditional education model, but as the results of those who are willing to make full use of technology provide their kids with a big advantage, it will become more popular.

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#8) On February 11, 2010 at 11:08 AM, hrc777 (59.34) wrote:

Sounds to me like we're going to have a massive requirement for in-home daycare workers and probably a very large opportunity for in home tutoring.  Yes, some of it will be provided by parents but what with the faster learning curve will generate organized socialization centers.  The amount of driving will only decrease with high gas prices.  You also fail to recognize that this will be happening at just the right time because of the demographics situation.  Your extreme view has just enough truth for people to take you too seriously.

However, I do believe it is well intended.

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#9) On February 11, 2010 at 11:38 AM, Melaschasm (89.42) wrote:

hrc777, you might be right, but another possibility is learning centers (schools), with larger student/teacher ratios, where the teacher could be a tutor for the core curriculum, and the 'daycare' adult supervision.  Classrooms may go back to being one room schools for k-12 education.

I could also see student teachers (college kids) helping tutor the older kids, while the older kids help the younger students. 

This would provide a higher quality education, with a much lower cost structure.

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#10) On February 11, 2010 at 11:48 AM, alstry (35.66) wrote:

Instead of focusing on school, focus on those things that you can grasp right now.....and then move to schools later.

like digital delivery of movies replacing CDs, stores and labor

digital banking replacing bank branches and tellers

online trading replacing brokers and brokerage office space

purchasing insurance online replacing insurance brokers

and purchase books online replacing bookstores......

All of the above drive efficiency and lower costs, less usage of resources, and less labor and space.

Now that we have invested trillions developing the technology, we are finally at the stage where we can implement it and drive efficiency everywhere.

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#11) On February 11, 2010 at 1:44 PM, biotechmgr (58.81) wrote:

Applause. I can now see your thesis. The Adam Smith model of land, labor, and capital is in the throes of transformation. Perhaps you will write the new Wealth of Nations :)

The efficiencies of no driving time, no office/school, less fuel consumed, etc. are apparent. Kids would probably learn better from an animated online course content than some of the "boring" teachers. There is the issue of socialization but that could be handled in other social settings and home gatherings.

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#12) On February 11, 2010 at 1:49 PM, cudakhan (< 20) wrote:

Although technology has made some jobs obsolete, the creation of the technology will spur new employment opportunities. Last check on the employment number show that construction and labor industries have taken the largest hits. Most of these jobs have not been lost to technological advances, rather as a result of the adjustment in economic expansion.

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#13) On February 11, 2010 at 2:10 PM, ChannelDunlap (< 20) wrote:

I... I... I agree with Alstry?  Can this be?  What is happening here...

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#14) On February 11, 2010 at 4:32 PM, jesusfreakinco (29.61) wrote:

Rec 10... stimulating discussion.  Good food for thought!

JFC

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#15) On February 12, 2010 at 2:00 PM, weg915 (< 20) wrote:

Next year, I will likely pull my child from LAUSD and homeschool for first grade (Unfortuately, no nice Mrs. Alstry to be his teacher - only dodo's). 

So I am there already.  Although the software isn't.  Most of it is just junk. 

I have recently started working with an educator to comeup with a framework which would support flexable, responsive digital learning for the elementary grades.   

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#16) On February 12, 2010 at 4:07 PM, chlyd (< 20) wrote:

http://www.tulsaworld.com/opinion/article.aspx?subjectid=61&articleid=20100212_61_A16_Itstim244139

this article shows what the OK state is going through about the digital age.

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