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alstry (< 20)

The Alstry Project



October 20, 2009 – Comments (17)

Alstry was created to simply post the truth...fact after fact....the truth and nothing but the truth.  A counter to the lies, misprepresentations, and crazy presentations of less bad is good and worse is better than expected.

In Alstry's world less bad sucks unless you are terminally ill and worse is never better than expected under the excellence standards of traditional American capitalism.

Alstrynomics tells it as it is and sifts through the nonsense.

The truth is if unemployment was measured the same way we measured under Reagan, it would be reported at approximately 21% today.  The truth is that if we measured more like The Great Depression over sixteen and not working, and factored for no welfare back then, we would be well over 30%.

But many of the Fools want to live in fantasy land and think government can print their way to prosperity allowing them to think they have a reason going to work my friends, it is just an illusion and the only thing government is printing is a perfect path to perpetual poverty.

Some of you are so narrow sighted that you can't even see that when Alstrynomics made the hard top call for Spector Vector Analysis of 8300 with 10% margin of error...after factoring Ghoser's breaking the silver and gold layers of the convex reflector.....and considering the over 20% devaluation of the dollar....Dow at 10,000 is really Dow under 8000 in constant valued U.S Dollars.

I know you want to believe that the Dow is over 10,000...but that is only in funny money dollars......soon changes will have to be made, and Fools will once again have to be responsible and live within their means and not depend on Obama showering trillions of fake dollars down from the that point, just watch what happens.   Benny the B will no longer be able to simply print to give his banker buddies as much money as they want.....the result will be a sea change that will make a tsunami look like calm waters.

I just talked to an aquaintance who is a partner in one of the largest Architecture firms in the nation....he informed me after this year ends, things really shut down...way down, including the office in China.  Further, unemployment now in Architecture is around 60%....yes that is right 60% and confirms the Alstrynomic perspective of Zombulation.

In the mean time, enjoy your counterfeit Dow 10,000.....soon we will have to come back to reality and realize the Dow never really went over 8,000 in devalued dollar adjusted terms. 

Will our dollar be a worthless pile of paper or will it have any value???  I guess we are about to find out... and whether Obama will be forced to take us to war because many Fools are simply too spoiled to live within our means and they depend on government to hand out fake money so the can delude themselves in properity.

It appears the natives are getting restless.....the cracks have formed and Alstrynomics warned you about MOAP occuring in has occured, now we Feel as we head to 11.10.9.




17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 20, 2009 at 10:58 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

"Dow at 10,000 is really Dow under 8000 in constant valued U.S Dollars."

LOL - now that's some funny sh!+ !!!

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#2) On October 20, 2009 at 11:00 PM, ChannelDunlap (< 20) wrote:

Alstry I thought we agreed to relax in 10.09.  Jeez.  Lighten up and join the rest of us partying like it's 1999! 

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#3) On October 20, 2009 at 11:03 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote: is not the end of the world....just the end of the world as you know it ;)

and my what an end it will be...............................and the beginning of something much more exciting......but we are still a bit too early to discuss that right now.

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#4) On October 20, 2009 at 11:09 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

IF YOU THOUGHT MADOFF WAS BIG...MOAP IS ALSTRY BIG...and we are just beginning to feel

The agency that runs a voluntary retirement plan for state employees failed to adequately disclose a $48 million loss in the market value of a conservative investment pool, according to an audit released Monday.

A toughly worded report suggests that the staff and board of the Maryland Teachers and State Employees Supplemental Retirement Plans had been lax in their oversight of private firms that manage many of the plan's investments. The auditors also said plan managers were unable to answer many of their questions or provide relevant documents.

The issues raised by legislative auditors echo many of the concerns surrounding the much larger Maryland state retirement fund several years ago, when the state pension board and staff failed for many months to detect an investment fraud that cost the system millions of dollars. Those problems led to the conviction in federal court of money manager Nathan A. Chapman Jr.

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#5) On October 21, 2009 at 12:53 AM, cashkid79 (93.36) wrote:

Thoughts ---

There is an abundance of American keystone "entities" evolving operations on the fly in today's shifting paradigm of a local/regional/national/global economic environment, playing off of the different (and locally diminished) new opportunities to make money BUT, at least that resembles competition, which I like, the US needs (domestically), and no matter ones personal views/perspectives on competition, which we ARE going to see more of soon at all levels...

Leaders (in any capacity) need to encourage and entice others to steer each other and do what anyone could do to make certain the path we take TOGETHER AS A COUNTRY is not one built on a foundation where the value in dollars or yens of each citizen's assets is protected and valued NOT in such a way that allows government to ever GET INTO a position to seize individual rights or even get close enough to cause any more issues than are inherently necessary to get done what we need to do as THE global super-power to protect and preserve our interests and freedom...yeah, I'm feeling patriotic...

Thumbs up for: life, liberty, happiness...When this time passes and gets worked out (however), and since America homes such brilliant minds as Alstry and other fellow members of TMF CAPS, (speaking of which / split TMF off, re-organize, throw some IPO to the all-stars, channel some collective pools of cash into worthy capital venture, and see how we as Fools profit WHILE helping solve all the global financial and economic problems of the day) my hope is that our grandchildren will still know the same (hopefully a better) definition of 'The American Dream' in the book on my desk AND get to enjoy the benefits of living in a world run by those willing to share, innovate and develop for the GREATER good with less ego-driven motivation (and none of all that other stuff that isn't world peace either);     


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#6) On October 21, 2009 at 1:19 AM, DOW4000 (< 20) wrote:

Alstry, what do u get from doing this? My guess is nothing but some personal satisfaction. In any case, you do provide a service, and I think TMF shoul make you official site bear: TMFAlstry. I am serious TMF! Just look at how many love to hate you. Jdubya for example loves the clash! I think it's great.

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#7) On October 21, 2009 at 2:34 AM, 1315623493 wrote:

Increasing the money supply during a recession is bad? Alstrynomics isn't based in reality. 

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#8) On October 21, 2009 at 6:22 AM, cashkid79 (93.36) wrote:

MS up GDP up UE down, all fundamental in our history of economic models and theories that are constrained by one set or another of 'Assumptions' / constants - and nothing is ever really constant so...would say we just got too smart for our own good, but then we have BennyB in office so that theory dies instantly before I can even get started on which problem to point out first..I don't see how anyone can disagree with the fact that we did this to ourselves, but hindsight is such an easy analytical process...

We just need new/revised Economic models to base our current market analysis and policy implementation strategies on...


Alstrynomics could be the one!!! haha - just think, saying you 'blogged' alongside Alstry back before his Nobel prize winning release of the official Alstrynomics models that spare us all a complete world 'as we know it' economic/financial meltdown!

{No I am not insane or delusional, just kidding - give me a negative rec if you like} 

Honestly, I must say Alstry is one of 1-2 favs I have on CAPS and there is some reasoning behind it beyond not using that tab and then the obvious blog-tainment services A provides...haven't got it pinpointed quite yet, but least I know I can count on more blogs...kinda like a newspaper column - I want to see how they evolve and match or don't with the actual events that unfold over the next few quarters though. 



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#9) On October 21, 2009 at 9:49 AM, mawnck (< 20) wrote:

---Increasing the money supply during a recession is bad? Alstrynomics isn't based in reality.---

Gee whiz ... MY money supply hasn't increased. Has yours?

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#10) On October 21, 2009 at 10:01 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

What does Alstry get from this?......he gets to read the pulse of a wonderful cross section of people and their interpretation of the data.

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#11) On October 21, 2009 at 3:23 PM, 1315623493 wrote:


It never was about your money supply. Something called "MONETARY POLICY". You want to get into why your income lags, that would be an entirely different subject..

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#12) On October 21, 2009 at 5:02 PM, cashkid79 (93.36) wrote:


We could also get into how well the FED or it's oversight committees are (not really) keeping track of who is accountable for the stim/tarp money disbursements, then for how much, then where and how that piece was allocated, but do not forget to take into account consumer sentiment and how it affects when and where the private money moves (the big C, consumption, but also remember to break that down into it's various segments including government's share)  Keep in mind that most people will agree with mawnck in not having realized any significant local effects of this increase in money supply but rather likely encountered something called the 'paradox of thrift' IF they are lucky and we hold constant the unemployment numbers for rate of, avg. length of, and lobbying by Senators (D) for extensions of said benefits(federal & state funded) AND hold constant all issues regarding the other target of Monetary Policy, inflation, which for being so 'in check' in some initial reports can't help but show the world imminent devaluing of the USD --- no, no hold that constant, get back to the money supply thing and then explain the concept of money velocity to all citizens while being sure to mention that its not really something citizens need to understand...just a concept thingy and we'll figure it out when we hit up that committee for our reports--just keep that constant too...hmmm accountability, well since it sounds almost the same lets just mention that different accounting methods can skew numbers quite a bit too depending on when a piece of money is recorded be it company to company US comparison under FASB/AICPA regulations or, lets do this-- compare US and China -- remember China was growing so fast yay!!! all the money was put on the books as soon as it hit the floor as rubber off the factory conveyor NO MATTER if there is already 50 million tires sitting there -- fact is there GDP is UP they grew, who cares if its jobs or rubber, it looks better than no growth right? because trade laws of the ummm non?protectionist US swayed in favor of helping out some domestic interests (9/9/9 news - google it) -no, WAIT, lets back up Im going too far BUT since it's now global lets not forget to figure in effects of exchange rates on earnings reports and reporters suggesting small business in America grow by simply starting to export mention of how to raise the money to perform these revenue increasing operations other than benefitting from our devalued currency..hmmm, just hold that constant too and get back to your paycheck from your job if you will and then backtrack to the beginning and see where exactly the cash notes you put in your wallet have spent their last ten weeks versus the cash notes you received say ten years ago and still im betting that the flow of money to that particular stream is headed in the opposite direction that news @ 5 told you was the plan for all of this nice fluffy stimulus plan which has served thus far to do a good job of holding up a glass house for the lucky - but remember -- there are a lot of assumptions and constants for what I'd say is a world with at least enough VARIABLES to maybe just consider keeping a little better track of the next trillion we print up...  


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#13) On October 21, 2009 at 5:23 PM, cashkid79 (93.36) wrote:

whew...sorry for the rant, just clean up the mess Gov...learn from mistakes...go USA --- cashkid79 - out - time to catch an hour of sleep b4 Im back up at it....

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#14) On October 22, 2009 at 1:08 AM, cashkid79 (93.36) wrote:

Wow...I really need to make more time for sleep...Alstry - how many hours of sleep do you average in any given week?

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#15) On October 22, 2009 at 7:16 AM, cashkid79 (93.36) wrote:


Alstrynomics will continue.  It has become the accepted theory now among some of the brightest minds in the country including George Soros, Paul Volker, and Nobel Prize winning economist Mr. Stiglitz'

I pulled that from a past jdubya blog, your most dedicated student it appears...I was actually joking about the Nobel prize comment I made, but am now just reading the history behind "Alstrynomics"...

Correct me and/or help me out though with your background - you got your UG in accounting, are/were a small business owner, attended the 'school of hard knocks' with maybe a little alcohol issue, then just decided to begin working on the development of concentric contraction based "Alstrynomics" to share ongoing research freely with CAPS members solely in an effort to help them make better investment decisions??

Did you develop A-nomics to create a more appropriate model to base your personal investment decisions upon?

What do you hope to achieve through your time dedicated to CAPS research and blogs?

Are you published in the US at all (articles/books/etc) or is the CAPS forum your primary channel for communication?

Do you posses any professional awards related to your political and economic research and analysis?

Last one -- can you clarify the quote at the top you made on 2/2/9...basically, to provide any references supporting the specifics of the statement?

Thanks for your time - truly interesting story you's amazing the time it appears you have dedicated and continue to dedicate here through the measure of your daily blog counts alone. 

I only ask because I want to understand the man behind your theories.  I guess I'd call it a request for your personal biography in a way, but I completely understand if that is not something you wish to disclose on a public internet forum.  Thanks for sharing your research freely either way and best of luck in all aspects of your life.  

Regardless of your CAPS fan/critic ratio or member rating, having personally observed many people generate less and put forth less effort (not even weighing quality of performance) than you have over the past year in blogs alone AND get full-time pay and benefits in return (as they should), you stand out from the crowd as a great person IMO, both for freely sharing your time in an effort to help others and as an example of one extremely generous spirit among a world of many that have lost sight of the value of what you seemingly represent - assuming you represent sharing knowledge to help others at your own expense (time), and with no expectation of monetary compensation. 

Good job man!!!  

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#16) On October 22, 2009 at 7:31 AM, JibJabs (90.74) wrote:

"The truth is if unemployment was measured the same way we measured under Reagan, it would be reported at approximately 21% today.  The truth is that if we measured more like The Great Depression over sixteen and not working, and factored for no welfare back then, we would be well over 30%."

Alstry, I'm stupid. I'm stupid, but I'm interested. I read your blogs. I'm intrigued by them. I recognize that you were prescient before so I listen today. However, I'm young and stupid. I don't know what this means. Could you please do me a favor and post another blog of blogs (like the one you posted months ago that began with "we have a debt problem" but even more painstakingly dumbed down). In that blog, could you explain with links that explain the statistical method of calculating unemployment and their historical changes? Could you please explain it to a neophyte like me, along with the rest of the moving pieces of your thesis and the relevant links to help me understand the background knowledge? You claim much and I'd like to trace your thoughts more clearly. I would infinitely appreciate, and study in great detail, a single blog that you post that reveals your thought process and the relevant links to explain economic concepts (and facts of course, though you never tire of those). I realize this is asking a lot but, as an ignorante, I am your intended audience and you clearly devote a lot of attention to your blogs so I beg you, please break it down in one place where I can follow your connections between the dots and see what sense I can make of them. Thanks. 

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#17) On October 25, 2009 at 7:08 PM, ResearchLover (65.43) wrote:

Beware 10/26/09!  It's here.

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