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Varchild2008 (84.64)

The Art of Waiting...wait....wait...and how long?

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April 25, 2010 – Comments (3)

Unfortunately Scottrade is Kapoots all weekend this weekend so I don't have access to as much information to make my point.  So I'll be brief.

There are 2 ways to be a LONG TERM investor that I know of....

Approach 1:  Buy a stock AFTER a great earnings report..paying UP for the stock in hopes it still has some room to run.

Approach 2:  Finding a still beaten down stock price from a company that appears to be doing well...appears to be a turn-a-round story...

I am a strong believer in both approaches as solid good approaches...

When I invest.. It is sometimes #1  and sometimes #2.... 

But......how patient must one be?  How long do you wait for your beaten down stock to finally produce results you believe it will eventually?

Here's my question to you.... How long before we see (ETFC) @ $5.00 a share? 
 (FBC) @  $5.00??     (C) @ $10.00????

How long does one wait??     The big money guys don't want to wait for their payouts... They wait for a solid earnings release or two to come out before jumping in.

George Soros got into (F) about 1 month AFTER I bought into Ford....and several months after the stock bottomed.

George Soros isn't a guy that has as much patience as some of us on Motley Fool have.
But how much patience is too much?

Frankly... I have to pin-point something about a mediocre earnings release that shows signs of improvement and cling to it.   So... I look for perhaps Market Share.... Or I look for Sales....or I look for expansion!

So I can hold onto a sideways trading (SVA) for quite awhile than I can a stock that doesn't yet show any improvements in anything....  SVA has shown expansion improvement is coming into 2012.... That keeps me at least a shareholder for that long.   After that I will want to see something else about SVA to convince me to stay longer.

I jumped on board (CBOU) prior to the Q1 earnings release and I am enjoying the ride up here because I channel checked the company several times before buying shares of CBOU.
Now I personally can testify to an increase in traffic and sales going on at SBUX and CBOU and many other smaller coffee & tea shops in downtown districts.

It's like with American Eagle...  As soon as I started buying clothes from American Eagle, the earnings releases got much better....sales overall got better....  Channel checking works more often than not but it still can fail!!!

Bottom Line.....  The reason for catalysts....is to motivate you as a long term shareholder beyond just the daily ticker price action.

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 25, 2010 at 2:05 PM, Varchild2008 (84.64) wrote:

Here's a watch list stock for those who really really really long patience:

(APOG) <----

Improving cash on balance sheet with disasterous earnings performance last year.  Is this year a turn-a-round story?  next year??  How long does one wait?

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#2) On April 25, 2010 at 3:09 PM, blesto (31.64) wrote:

I can't say anything for those other stocks but (C) may only bust $10 if and when they do a reverse stock split. I heard 7 to 1.

Others say here and there they are looking for a one year target not to get much higher than $5.

As for how long to wait? I guess that's where doing your own due diligence comes into play and having faith in your decisions.

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#3) On April 25, 2010 at 6:44 PM, Varchild2008 (84.64) wrote:

Absolutely....  My point was the individual investor sets the length of time.....  That means that it is perfectly ok to not listen to pundits on T.V. telling you that holding onto a stock for X number of months is long enough..so sell...

You set the time.....you decide how long you want to be patient with a stock.

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