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Varchild2008 (85.25)

The BEAR market we are experiencing is pure BUNK

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June 28, 2008 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: DE , IR , KO

Doing some thinking about all of these stocks from great companies in the toilet bowl.
Coca Cola, Pepsi, Starbucks, Sonic, GM, Ford, and the endless list of companies just continues trading at or near their 52 week lows or perhaps creating brand new lows.

Dollar is inflated?
Oil is up?
Corn Syrup costs more?

Uhm. Ok.  Whatever.

People don't drink pop?  They're sure as heck drink it at McDonalds, Baseball Parks, Movie Theatres, and well every where I go.

Here's how I see it.   Investors are scared over all of this inflation/oil stuff that they are neglecting quality companies and quality stocks over the obsession with the Dollar, Corn, Wheat, and Oil situation.  

Looking at the manufacturing sector.  Even that's taking massive hits!  We have lots of great companies out there producing insane profits and their stock price goes SIDEWAYS.

HERE's a LIST that should *piss off* any Investors out there as it does me.

1)  IR  (Ingersoll-Rand)     Near 52-week Low!     It's got a Standard and Poor's 12 month target price of $50.  They pay an 18 cents a share dividend quarterly!

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Has the "Security Technology" and "Industrial Technology" sector gone bust overnight?
I...Don't....Think....So...

2) DE: Deere & Co.       28 cents a share quarterly Dividend.

Sure.. Maybe it's tough to sell Agricultural Tractors.   But, that's only part of what John Deere does.  They also make John Deere Engines.  They make construction equipment/vehicles.

It's John Deere.  They didn't lower their FY 08  EPS expectations 1 penny.  Yet the stock has fallen considerably.
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Give me a break!   Like for example... a 4th of July Break so Investors can get a clue!

I can rattle on and on about company after company getting completely bizarre treatment by investors.  But, I am sure everyone knows that the current Stock Market does not represent the current situation with America's Economy.

It's time for investors to stop being scared and start getting greedy cause FY 09 projections for all of these Industrial companies in America, and the Beverage Sector, and so on are all UP!

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 28, 2008 at 9:11 PM, RVAspeculator (28.82) wrote:

You are very correct my friend, oversold in the short run.   I plan on putting a rant together about this when I have more time on Sunday...  Check it out tomorrow night.

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#2) On June 28, 2008 at 9:48 PM, FleaBagger (29.09) wrote:

Why be PO'd? Buy 'em on the cheap. As for the bear market in general, I think we are in one for a very good reason, but the stocks you mentioned are probably some of the best for riding it out. I prefer metals and oil, though.

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#3) On June 28, 2008 at 10:27 PM, MaskedMan2007 (99.34) wrote:

Well the trend on the market is clearly lower.

It is just a buying opportunity to buy those great companies at a bargain price. To do so you need to have a 5 years target tough.

 

 

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#4) On June 29, 2008 at 12:07 AM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

The big wigs are still out and what you have is a traders market.

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#5) On June 29, 2008 at 12:19 AM, Varchild2008 (85.25) wrote:

I guess that's the way to look at it.

Trudge through the "Slough" buying great company's stocks as you accumulate the money to do so and enjoy the Dividend payments and patiently wait for the Investor "Bipolar Disorder" to swing wildly to the other way.

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#6) On June 29, 2008 at 1:09 AM, SemperGumby77 (55.69) wrote:

I don't know that I'd call Ford or GM great companies, but I do agree that we're currently short-term oversold. I expect a pop somewhere in here soon, but will be using it as another opportunity to get back into the market with my short hedges in place.

My curent opinion is that I wouldn't consider a net long position until the S&P fell another 15% or so, which IMHO will happen sometime around October this year.

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#7) On June 29, 2008 at 7:51 AM, abitare (31.73) wrote:

Varchild2008,

We all hope you have a billion dollars inheritance. 

"A fool and his money are soon parted"

GM and Ford are great companies! Lol. I guess they will be even better after a bankrupcy.

The best part is CAPS clearly reflects your ability to predict "great companies". In a Bear market 80% of companies will fall. But I guess you can pick the 20% that will stay up. Let us know when you start demonstrating this ability.

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#8) On June 29, 2008 at 9:37 AM, abitare (31.73) wrote:

I guess you go it right and Bloomberg and the market are wrong?

Worst June Since 1930

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/ 

 

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#9) On June 29, 2008 at 9:52 AM, abitare (31.73) wrote:

Please provide some evidence of your "beliefs". The majority of your stock picks are down. Right? 

Here are some links: 

Business Week Doubles Down On Housing's Fall

"Market Breadth Back to Lows

Below we highlight the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages for the S&P 500 and its ten sectors.  Currently, just 17% of stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 50-days, which is just about as low as breadth has been during the prior lows seen back in August, January and March.  Eleven percent of Industrials and Materials stocks, 8% of Consumer Discretionary stocks, and just 3% of Financial stocks are above their 50-days."

Are you sober? 

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#10) On June 29, 2008 at 10:01 AM, abitare (31.73) wrote:

More evidence?

Shorts Piling OnInternational Declines

"While markets have been bad here, they've been even worse in many other areas of the world.  Below we highlight the year to date performance of major equity indices in Japan, Germany, France, Canada, China, the UK, and the US.  As shown, Canada and Japan are outperforming the US, but the rest are down quite a bit more.  While the S&P 500 is down 12.6% this year, the UK is down 14.5%, Germany is down 20%, France is down 21%, and China is down 45%.  All you had to do was short China and buy the US and you'd be making a killing this year.  If it were only that easy."

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#11) On June 29, 2008 at 4:25 PM, Varchild2008 (85.25) wrote:

People have been predicting the Death of American Auto Companies for 2 decades and it hasn't happened.

Plus, GM and FORD have improved the quality of their vehicles as well as the mileage per gallon.  They are competitive with Japanese Automakers it's just a matter of WHEN not IF consumers will wake up to this fact.

Can't disregard either GM or FORD's successes at least in overseas sales. 

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#12) On June 29, 2008 at 4:29 PM, Varchild2008 (85.25) wrote:

I can't honestly think of a time when the MARKET was ever "right."  I mean come on.  This is the same MARKET that priced JAVA well over $100 a share.

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