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The beauty and the moron



September 06, 2008 – Comments (4)

As a net buyer of stocks during the next 4 years, I have a vested interest in cheap valuations. But cheap valuations are hard to come by. Especially when a president is smart and his efforts to enrich his Wall Street buddies are well thought-out and efficient. No big mistakes are being made, every blunder gets quickly recognized and correctred, the banking system functions like a Swiss clock, and S&P is one big bubble of gigantic proportions. That's what we had under Clinton - a totally unassailable stock market fortress that never offered a good entry point.

Although there are no differences between the two parties, to the extent that personalities matter, the election of a stupid president can shift the odds slightly in one's favor. The Bush presidency was a golden era for beginning investors. The failed Irak adventure, the botched tax reform, the enrichment of oil companies and, lastly, the ethanol saga, all contributred to dampen investors' enthusiasm, and the general impression that the Bush administration has a magic Midas touch (think the George Bush sewage treatment plant working in reverse mode) created a feeling of pessimism even in the rare cases when Carl Rove's sound bytes made sense. The Dow 11000 did not materialize by accident. All those who feel excited about current valuations must feel grateful to Bush. 

So should we beginning investors congratulate ourselves with this chance to elect another useful idiot? Not so fast. The problem is that the stupider candidate may just be too stupid to win this election. True enough, all election victories were always achieved with the help of cheap PR tricks, but the important thing is to recognize that you can't win a campaign by PR alone. When the gap between the image and the substance becomes too wide, people will become suspicios of otherwise perfectly good PR tricks merely because these tricks are coming from someone who's lost credibility. So yes, you can always embellish the substance of your program with some nude pics, but when the substance is missing entirely, your hope to carry 26 states thanks to the effectiveness of Palin commercials is pure wishful thinking. Irak? Housing? Health care? Taxes? Oil? Any meaningful message other that "let's leave everything as it is, and by the way, I have a pretty girl for you to vote for in case you're missing Hillary"? Look here, you cannot point to a deer and say, "it's a horse" unless the person you're talking to really wants to believe that it's a horse, and as far as Hillary fans are concerned, you can't replace Hillary with an anti-abortion activist giving birth to babies with down syndrome and hope nobody would notice the difference. Once upon a time, merchants would buy islands in exchange for glass beads and iron nails and blankets. The kits sold like hotcakes. But notice that these kits always combined useless trinkets with some objects offering an apparent tangible value to the voting members of the tribe. The merchant would always throw in a nail or two. Now, the progressing stupidity of Bush's team resulted in a successor who's utterly lost his sales pitch and is now hoping to close the deal by offering nothing but glass beads. This is not very good news for the investors hoping for another "useful idiot" discount. We have a perfect useful idiot who is going to lose the election in a landslide. Now, how useful is that?  


4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 06, 2008 at 10:08 PM, LordZ wrote:

Yawns, where do I begin ?

Cheap valuations ? you might as well vote that Obomination Obama into office, lets have the least qualified community organizer in the last 100 years as our resident of the United States.

Stock brokers just love Obama, such that when Palin gave her speech Obama's people got scared and called up their power brokers and got a quick 10 million within minutes.

Wall street is funding Obama, because under an Obomination residency, you will have no long term position holders, and as brokers get paid by volume, they are going to enjoy the increased volumes as very few traders will hold a stock for more than a day, heck minutes may be the new standard.

Meaningful message, how about business will no longer be conducted as usual. Mccain plans to shake things up and will have no problems embarassing legislators who put themselves before the people they serve. Under Obama, it would be business as usual with the dem twist of increased welfare and bigger oversight and controls and budgets. Obama has no problems trying to spend his way out of the crisis, but all thats going to do is make the hole just that much deeper.

I get the sense that many so called intelligent people are afraid that Mccain is somehow some bloodthirsty war mongerer, and that is not the case, but he will not back down and cower against our enemies.

As to women, women come in all shapes and sizes, all beliefs and party affiliations, and I wouldn't be surprised if many women decide to unite and  vote Republican, its time for a real woman, and not some butch man wanna be Clinton to break the ceiling and achieve the previously improbable.

Doesn't it make sense that a woman would get voted in before a black man ?

Obama will get 90 plus percent of the black voters who actually will vote, but what if Palin was to get 70% of the women vote.

Can you say President Mccain and the very first woman VP Palin.

Palin can become  the newer younger Ronald Reagan, much to the dems loathing and dismay.



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#2) On September 07, 2008 at 3:17 AM, awallejr (56.54) wrote:

While people love to blame Bush for all the current ills of this Country they tend to forget, or at least not disclose, that the House and Senate are controlled by the Democrtas.  Man I wish we would put term limits on Senators.

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#3) On September 07, 2008 at 10:42 AM, BradAllenton (31.54) wrote:

If you understand how our government works "awallejr" you would know that simply having the "control" doesn't mean you are calling the shots. The republicans can (and have) block(ed) whatever the democrats attempt to do. Also Bush will veto (and has) anything that doesn't hook up his buddies. Republicans seem to forget that part when the say "this do nothing congress" Lets make an analogy shall we? If someone was fitted with handcuffs and cement shoes and thrown into a river can you then call them a "do nothing swimmer"?

About people looking down on Obama calling him not ready and blah, blah. Let me tell you something, most of the loudest mouths on that subject couldn't fail out of the schools he graduated. The fact is you would never make it past the entry exam. I will take a resonable, smart man with less exp over an old angry, dumb f**#ng hard head. (before you say it, yes McSame is dumb. Truth is he never was did well at much his whole life. Check his record) Call me crazy I guess.

Lastly, people do blame the people (republicans) in charge for the stupid crap that they do. 12 of the last 14 years had republicans running the show in congress and the president has been a republican for the last 7+. WHO ELSE WOULD YOU BLAME? Oh wait I know..... Obama, after all you can clearly see it is his fault.

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#4) On September 07, 2008 at 11:49 AM, LordZ wrote:

The do nothing Democrats, well thats do nothing but look for ways to spend your hard earned money, frack things up, and simply blame others and Bush for everything.

Whats worse is when I hear sympathetic democratics who aren't upset with their own members or how bad everything is, but are upset for them not taking any actions to impeach Bush.

Like impeaching Bush is the only most important thing they didn't do these past 8 years, its laughable except that these guys are making serious $$$ for doing next to nothing, well Obama with all his so called intelligence had tried on many legislation he at least voted, voted present, LOL, whats this ? yes rather than use that so called big brain to take a side to be for or against certain legislation, he simply utilized the time honored right to vote present, why do you think that is ?

Some will say well he really didn't know about the issues ?

Some will say well he was more concerned about becoming president and didn't want any possible association with bad legislation or controversial legislation ? But doesn't representation deserve better than a i'm here but i'm not going to vote today candidate ?

Some will question his true logic and reasoning ability ? after all aren't men created equal ?  we just apply ourselves differently.

How silly is it for them to thumb their noses at any attempts by Republicans  to enact any legislation and than expect anything but similar discoperation but than again they are politicians.

Maybe some day when you throw puppies and kittens off a tall building the laws of gravity may not apply, but come on, you reap what you sow and whats even worse is when the two groups combine and do things like enact the patriot act, enable wiretapping and wholesale intrusion in the day to day lives of americans, all it now takes is your banker questioning why you took out 1,000 dollars in cash and suddenly your on some list.

Elliot Spitzer got caught up, not because they were looking to bring him down, but because some banker thought it was odd and thought that maybe he was using his money for ulterior purposes so they investigated and realized that he was consorting with prostitutes and thus unlike the biggest prostitutes who are for sale in the Senate and house.



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