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alstry (35.44)

The CRASH is just beginning

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July 31, 2009 – Comments (27)

About 1 in 10 Californians with a home loan is now in default, and there's growing evidence that the mortgage meltdown is spreading to commercial real estate.

The home mortgage delinquency rate -- the percentage of borrowers who have missed several payments and are in the first stage of foreclosure -- climbed in June to 9.5% in California and 9.9% in Los Angeles County, according to First American CoreLogic.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-default31-2009jul31,0,173542.story

We are reaching Zombulation saturation....where so many are Zombulated, the remaining simply can't hold the system together without collapsing.

The staggering number of home mortgage defaults probably will lead to large numbers of foreclosures through at least this year, housing experts say.

Yes the numbers are staggering.  And yes it will likely lead to lots of addional foreclosures which will put further downward pricing pressure on homes leading to even more foreclosures.

Imagine what a neighborhood is like when one in ten homes are in distress. Now imagine an entire city.....entire state....and soon an entire nation.

As millions more are likely to lose their jobs or suffer massive wage cuts as we proceed into Fall, the defaults will likely spiral out of control.

At the end of the day, much of our nations wealth is simply debt intruments owned by our financial institutions and pension funds......these assets skyrocketed over recent years simply because the banking system overdosed America with too much debt which is now mathematically impossible to repay.

We are now entering the crash phase of concentric contraction...if my estimates are correct, GDP will contract by at least 50%.....yes, AT LEAST 50%.

27 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 31, 2009 at 11:04 PM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

Then why is the dollar crashing?  I expect the dollar to be strong in deflation, but th inflation trade still reigns.  I can't get long commodities until the banks are "done"..ie debt destruction

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#2) On July 31, 2009 at 11:23 PM, alstry (35.44) wrote:

My guess, and it is only a guess, on the dollar is concern for a collapse of the dollar due to default.

Strained finances are causing serious stress at the state and local government levels.....and it is only going to get much worse under current Zombulation policies.

It is ridiculous to be discussing health care reforn when we don't even know if we have money.....as more and more run out of money.

 A Jefferson County judge this evening denied a request by the county tax assessor to block county commissioners today from putting eight members of his staff on unpaid leave due to a financial crisis.

Weinrib filed the suit today, contending the budget cuts will leave him unable to perform his state-mandated duties to assess and value property in the county for tax purposes.

It was the second lawsuit filed over the county's budget cuts brought on by the loss of a key revenue source.

http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2009/07/jefferson_county_judge_denies_1.html

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#3) On July 31, 2009 at 11:36 PM, alstry (35.44) wrote:

We are seeing cuts in practically every city in America...the economic impact will be devasting...but the effect on safety could be even more serious as more and more public safety jobs are eliminated against a back drop of rising social distress.

The City of Cincinnati is asking the Police Department to make a number of budget concessions or risk losing 400 officers.

City Manager Milton Dohoney is scheduled to present his recommendations for making up the city's $28 million budget shortfall at a special council meeting Monday.

or

One village is looking at cutting its police force. Alma Center Village President Tom Jones says like communities all over, it's keeping a close eye on it's budget and that could mean the elimination of its police department.

Just Google buget cuts police/fire and you will see the cuts are everywhere.

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#4) On August 01, 2009 at 12:14 AM, alstry (35.44) wrote:

Donner,

New home sales are down 80%.

Steel sales are down 60%.

Auto sales are down  50%.

How do your employees feel that you have cut their wages 20%.  Why don't you take the $10,000 you were going to bet me and give it to them right now.....I  am sure many of the families could use it to help them through these difficult times.

If you want to debate me on the issues, I am game, but your childish name calling is unbecoming of someone of your stature.

 

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#5) On August 01, 2009 at 12:26 AM, dragonLZ (99.41) wrote:

Alstry, and when exactly is that great flood going to be?

I mean the one that will cause the end of the world? Or is it going to be a meteor this time? Sorry, can't quite remember how the prediction goes...

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#6) On August 01, 2009 at 12:31 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Twist and turn.  Dodge and weave.  Never willing to be measured for real $$.  Asshat.

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#7) On August 01, 2009 at 12:34 AM, checklist34 (99.72) wrote:

2 months till 9/09 alstry.

don't worry, you'll pass me in CAPs score once more before then.  But i'll pass you again sometime thereafter.  

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#8) On August 01, 2009 at 12:48 AM, alstry (35.44) wrote:

Donner,

Can't you see things collapsing all around us???? 

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Colonial BancGroup Inc., the ailing Alabama bank, said there is “substantial doubt” it can survive after posting a fifth straight quarterly loss and canceling a sale to an investor group.

The second-quarter net loss widened to $606 million, or $3.02 a share, from $8.96 million, or 5 cents, a year earlier when there were fewer shares outstanding, the bank said yesterday. An agreement to sell a 75 percent stake for a $300 million capital investment fell through when it failed to win regulatory approval.

Colonial, with $26 billion in assets and 355 branches, is one of “the larger U.S. banks with obvious financial problems,” said Ralph “Chip” MacDonald, a Jones Day lawyer in Atlanta. Colonial’s losses in the past five quarters total more than $1.6 billion, mostly from defaults on loans to Florida builders and developers. The bank hasn’t met capital requirements to receive U.S. rescue funds.

They distress is growing and GROWING.....Corus and Guaranty are next in line....with perhaps thousands behind them.

Budgets that were just balanced are not balanced just a few weeks later?  How quickly are revenues evaporating?  How much will spending have to be cut?  What will be the impact on the economy?

All very important questions that you seem to want to avoid....since your comments are void of substance.

May I suggest you stick with the issues and help out your employees as you cut their wages significantly.  Trust me, I know how difficult it is out there.......and my guess is you are learning real fast.

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#9) On August 01, 2009 at 12:50 AM, barbarosssa25 (< 20) wrote:

you are a moron who cares about one little village and their police force problems I know mine is fine and they get paid 70k a year plus. that 50 percent number is the funniest thing i have seen all day thanks for the entertainment.

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#10) On August 01, 2009 at 1:25 AM, GenuineOne (< 20) wrote:

Some economic advisor on the A&G show I believe--forecast inflation would balloon 25 percent in a year--and if congress passes cap & trade and that health care bill we are doomed; we ALL need to write those bozos in Washington.  Free market capitalism is under attack. 

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#11) On August 01, 2009 at 1:44 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Asshat:

 You in or out with the bet?  Cease the BS and step up to the plate.  In or out?

Or you just all BS tip to toe?  Dodge and weave.

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#12) On August 01, 2009 at 1:59 AM, awallejr (85.43) wrote:

Alstry I offer Donner's bet to you as well.  This has got to be the most reckless exaggeration you have made to date.  Oh wait, you said unemployment will reach 50-60% too.

And as for commercial real estate, and I know people don't like this term but tough it is accurate, vacancy declines in commercial real estate during economic cycles is probably the final lagging indicator.  And there is a reason for it, just like unemployment lags.  During recessions companies cut costs, which includes employees.  They also consolidate "office space."  Weak companies go belly up, etc..  During a recovery companies again expand their businesses and new companies start to pop up, hence unemployment starts to decline and vacancy rates begin to shrink. There is a proviso that real estate improvement rates are very dependent upon location, location, location.

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#13) On August 01, 2009 at 2:48 AM, awallejr (85.43) wrote:

And to follow up on the bet, but I darn well know you won't take it;  if someone at MTF is willing to act as "escrow agent" I will put my money with them if you will do the same.

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#14) On August 01, 2009 at 2:49 AM, awallejr (85.43) wrote:

MTF=TMF

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#15) On August 01, 2009 at 4:04 AM, mliu01 (< 20) wrote:

Alstry: there are just way too many idiots in this world. They can only see thing one steps away. These guys never see what's comming. Don't bother argue with fools. It is not going to end well for all of them.They will say whatever, they simply can't debate with number, fact and logic. But they are great at basing with no fact.

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#16) On August 01, 2009 at 5:11 AM, livinwright13 (36.43) wrote:

Is this person a cop who is worried about their job?  Maybe a doomsday preacher trying to boost his income through tithe's & offering's?  This 'Cat' is a 99.65% ranking and writing fairy-tales.  At least I hope they're fairy-tales.  How does someone score that high and speak such "over the top" TWEAKERISM'S.  I guess these times create wild imaginations. Before the "great pooper dooper 2008" I just paid in the max to my RJ dude and kept focusing on the 20 yr. old copy of how to retire with 10 Million Greenbacks. Problem is, it factored a 10% yearly return.  Whoops, retirement fund disappeared. Figured I better learn about this stock trading business for myself.  Well what da ya know, I've been a member since 10-08 and I'm holding steady at around 97-98.5%.  I'm just giving this about an hour a week or so because my label printing business is so busy, I don't have enough hours in the day to keep up with orders AND PREDICT THE CONTINUED DOOM OF THE WORLD ECONOMY.  Gotta go start a blog, I'm an authority now, RIGHT?  You keep whining Alstry- I'm going to go make some money!!  Who's with me????????

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#17) On August 01, 2009 at 7:21 AM, alstry (35.44) wrote:

mliu,

I am not arguing, simply trying to learn how people think.

I am trying to understand how people can think this is a recession when sales to New Homes, Steels, and Autos are down 80, 60, 50% respectively.

I am trying to understand how people can think this is a recession when the reported unemployment rate is about 17% but the government/media uses a subset number that only counts those as unemployed who have been unemployed a short period of time.

I am trying to understand how people can think this is only a recession when most of the spending of our nation starts from government now?

I am trying to understand how people who try to apply history to a situation that has no historical precedent?

Could you imagine the people in Indonesia, when the Tsunami hit, who said that history has shown that the waves always stop here?  Whoops.

And we haven't even started the community banking crisis, the government layoff crisis, the commercial real estate crisis, and a continuing of the housing crisis.....

Oh well...hopefully these guys can give me a better perspective of what is going on instead of simply calling me names.  I try to put a supporting link to a news article every time I blog...but these days, facts really don't matter.

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#18) On August 01, 2009 at 12:07 PM, Buckaneer (< 20) wrote:

this is all very amusing. what's not funny is unemployment being so high in california. market rally and all is fantabulous, but those without jobs know "this crap ain't over."

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#19) On August 01, 2009 at 1:16 PM, dragonLZ (99.41) wrote:

When I was a teenager back in the 80's, I remember us talking about how everything was screwed up (drugs, criminal, AIDS,... basically no hope...) that it made no sense for us to think about bringing kids to this screwed-up world when we get older.

However, in the 90's, the world saw growth and prosperity like it has never seen before ...

Or imagine what people like alstry were thinking in the 20's, or 40's (the whole world fighting), or during the Cold War (weren't we all supposed to be wiped off the face of the earth by nuclear weapons?)...

My point is: Alstry is not the first one who predicted the end of the world, but has it happen yet... 

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#20) On August 01, 2009 at 1:45 PM, awallejr (85.43) wrote:

Alstry I've given you plenty arguments in your threads and it was ultimately you using ad hominems in the end.  But yet you still avoid the bet offer, which in the end speaks for itself.  You throw out completely exaggerated numbers and too afraid to back it up with REAL money.

Here re-read this thread (also note your 5000 DOW by end of summer comment):

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=190126&t=01002130057764754273

And here's the funy followup when your prediction in the first link didn't happen:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=191980&t=01002130057764754273

You don't argue facts, you simply exaggerate and spin.  Agree to the bet.  And if you can't afford $10,000, then pick a number you can afford, but a little more than loose change at least.

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#21) On August 01, 2009 at 2:14 PM, bigcat1969 (92.35) wrote:

The world will not likely end anytime soon, it didn't end when Egypt, Greece or Rome fell, it didn't end with the fall of the British Empire or when Communism crashed in the Russia.  In fact all those countries still exist, yet for those empires, much changed in the short term and the lesson seems to be that no empire lasts forever.  When an empire ends it usually goes with a wimper, unless it is overcome in battle which seems unlikely in the case of America.  So when we hit a major downturn it is fair to ask where we are on the arc of our history and if this will be the blow that breaks up the empire as we know it.

I don't think that this is the blow that destroys us, but it might be one that weakens us quite a lot.  As China and the EU threaten to move past us in terms of global power, we might go from being the only Superpower to one of the Big Three thanks to this depression.  A future with limited employment, thanks to little manufacturing and consumer spending, and massive debt coupled to a weak dollar could certainly push us down the list of powerful nations and eventually cause a splintering of the Union.  Eventually we will fall, the question is when and when we do the stock market will not be the most important thing on poeple's minds.

One thing is certain, no government comes out and announces "The end is coming soon!" The people of the land will be reassured until the bitter end that everything is ok.  So it is up to us to look and see where we really are and what it truth and what is spin.  Right now we live in an era when it is harder to suppress truth and this gives us a huge advantage over times when the 'facts' of President O'Bama and CNBC would have been the only voices heard.  This ability to find many voices is wonderful and if this is curtailed, it will be a sign that the situation is more dire than we believe.  So long as we can argue and spit and cuss, at least one right lives on.

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#22) On August 01, 2009 at 2:48 PM, brwn8484 (89.58) wrote:

Linright : You an the pres can go on livin in your own little world.. Here is what he had to say today "

setDefault('cnbc_textbody');

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama warned on Saturday it would take "many more months" for the United States to get out of recession even after GDP figures showed the economy shrank only modestly in the second quarter.

Obama, who has defended his young administration's economic policies in recent weeks in the face of worsening unemployment numbers, said jobless figures next week would still show that too many Americans were losing work.

"It will take many more months to fully dig ourselves out of a recession - a recession that we've now learned was even deeper than anyone thought," the president said in his weekly radio and Internet address.

"And when we receive our monthly job report next week, it is likely to show that we are continuing to lose far too many jobs in this country. As far as I'm concerned, we will not have a recovery as long as we keep losing jobs," he said.

 

Now it is deeper than anyone thought ..... except for livinright who says he is makin a killin and were all too whiny and stupid. 

Well, I have know for some time that we were/are in trouble.  And I dont even have a complete set of financial bozos with PHD's working for me.   Guess being president doesnt make you any smarter.

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#23) On August 01, 2009 at 3:34 PM, alexxlea (66.91) wrote:

I am 100% certain that China will not, can not, and never will be, a leading nation of the world. Perhaps their dollars can temporarily grant them a say in today's age, but a move of the world towards collectivized action from all its citizens will denounce China's rule. The Chinese people as well will be far too smart for the continued conquest of the globe by Chinese leaders. They shall seek to support their country to the limits wherein it makes sense to do so, and once they see the detrimental effects of an expansionary policy they shall put the brakes on, fast. The average lifespan of a Chinese dynasty is testament to the ability of their people to move quickly when their government has wronged them, and the cycles have only quickened their pace. This current iteration is but a freeze frame of what works for the Chinese people in the current day and age.

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#24) On August 01, 2009 at 3:47 PM, bigcat1969 (92.35) wrote:

Interesting comment, alexxlea but a bit over my head.  Could you explain a bit more?  I'm worried that China will end up creating huge problems for the US and even if China's run is fairly short that the EU with a powerful Germany will rise up to fill any power void.

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#25) On August 01, 2009 at 4:37 PM, awallejr (85.43) wrote:

China's fate is too intertwined with the US.  They can huff and puff all they want, but truth be told they still depend on us.  Until China can prove that communism can create personal wealth on a national scale (which I doubt) they aren't supplanting anyone as the leading world power.  Now if they embraced pure capitalism instead, that could be a game changer.

I wouldn't sell the US short any time soon.  While empires come and go over the span of history, the US is still the most unique country ever formed, and it is still "infant."  Amercians have endured their share of hardships throughout its history and have survived and grown.  We will survive this mess too, just not overnight. 

But people such as Alstry prefers to just spam exaggerations.  Kind of like the tactic of Hitler/Himmler (and please I am not saying Alstry is a nazi).  They developed and used "THE BIG LIE" tactic with tremendous effect.  Just exaggerate a point as wild as can be and people start to believe it.  Excellent read on that would be William Shirer's "The Rise and Fall of The Third Reich."

GDP is not dropping 50% or more.  Unemployment is not going to 50-60%.  These are nothing but "Big Lies" which Alstry knows, but he apparently has some kind of agenda in real life motivating him to continue these spammings.

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#26) On August 01, 2009 at 8:19 PM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

I think a little insightful thinking would shed a glimmer of light.  If one were to present a reasoned projection of the near and medium future, based upon observed facts, known feedback loops and a knowledge of history, one could contribute a potentially valuable blog for the community.

But the blogger could hardly submit such a weighty tome more than once a month.  And each blog, although well thought out and weighty, would have to bear a decidedly unsexy title like "The Likely Path of Our Economy".

I'd give my left pinky to have the time, stored knowledge and intelligence to give birth to such a magnus opus.

But if your aim is notoriety, recs and a feeling of shallow self-worth, you slap up 4-5 blogs daily.  Each must have a sensationalist headline and make outrageous projections from each minor news gleaning of the day.

Thus you can rise from the tedium of managing a restaurant and living a fairly hopeless life in Florida, with a fantasy of gaining and losing millions in the magnificent past.

Some of us wave banners, scream at the heavens, cry "doom...doom...doom", hoping to become "somebody".  Yet some of us simply go about our day-to-day, doing the best we can with our skills, knowledge and confidence in our country.

Travails come and go.  But as another wise poster noted, the world did not end then, nor will it now. 

Some of us who are blessed with more voluntarily help those with less.  Some of us in the middle fight with all of our strength to carry on over the turmoil.  And we will prevail.  And some of us on the edge need, and receive, help from those with more (voluntarily) and from the taxes levied on our more prosperous citizens.

And yes, Mr. "Doom and Gloom", I still pay enough income and property and sales and FICA/FUTA taxes to support twenty average families.  Don't start the crap that my income and assets are going away, because they aren't

The GDP may decrease 5-15% over time (I doubt it will reach that top level), but the notion that GDP will shrink by 50-60% is ludicrous.

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#27) On August 02, 2009 at 8:30 PM, MGDG (35.45) wrote:

I believe a 50% drop in GDP would be considered a Black Swan event. It doesn't mean it won't happen, just a low probability. The spending of $Trillions on Financial Institutions, which in turn is preparing to hand out $Billions in bonuses to select employees, is not a long term solution.

The conversion of Debt to Equity would have been a better path and put the onus on those that made or purchased bad loans to own up and share in the rebuilding process. The current Government plan looks to be nothing more than putting fuel on the fire.

The heavy burden on the back of the U.S. Government, business and consumer is the debt load. We cannot solve this by adding more debt. It will come to the point where the taxes, profit or income generated will not be sufficient cover the servicing of the debt, let alone the debt itself.

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