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alstry (< 20)

The Crash is speeding up!!!!!



December 05, 2008 – Comments (11)

From the WSJ:

Companies are accelerating job cuts amid declining sales and the expectation of tougher times across the economy....The broad swath of industries involved in Thursday's announcements shows that job losses are spreading far beyond the housing and finance sectors to virtually every corner of the economy. Paper maker AbitibiBowater Inc. said Thursday it is cutting 1,100 jobs, about 7% of its work force, as it closes paper mills in Canada, Alabama and Tennessee.

The key language here is "accelerating."  The snowball is getting bigger and each revolution absorbes more and more snow.  My channel checks for retail is pretty amazing.  Expect some dramatic announcements after the Holiday selling season.

We are simply shutting down day after day while few really seem to get it.  As I have repeatedly stated in the past.....we have never faced anything  like this before and the likelihood that this will be worse than the thirties is becoming clearer and clearer.

Its not the end of the world.....its just a depression.  20-30% unemployment and an economy that is just puffing along.

Unemployment numbers  come out in a  few hours.....expectations are for a rise to response is good luck.  Dexion's post on municipalities is very on point.  I strongly suggest you read it.

As an aside:  Dex, unlike FloridaBuilder, who used to cry and whine, I encourage you to use my name in your titles....even if you are poking fun at me or making derrogatory statements.  In Business, awareness is the greatest form of advertising...vanity is only skin deep but free marketing goes right to the bottom line.  Whether we agree or disagree doesn't really matter, discourse through socratic interchange distills real solutions.

Isn't CAPS about helping each other out?  If you didn't think so in the past, you will  in the very near future.  It is also a competition....and I expect to kick most of your backsides....very very soon.

Hey batta batta batta..........................swing!!!!!!!!!!

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 05, 2008 at 7:56 AM, Captpbh (< 20) wrote:

You are right on the money, there is going to be less and less of it as the days go on.  ATT just announced 12,000 job cuts and will spend less on equipment in 2009.  This means more job cuts somewhere else.  What gives us the bottom?  Who knows but confidence in the economy makes all the difference in the world, the market is emotional not logical. I think that Obama's plan for works projects is timely. Not that it will stop the slide, just help it puff along!  People have to work, to spend, to support work for others, so buisness can make money, so that their stock will go up.  Pretty logical order, but don't forget the emotional side.

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#2) On December 05, 2008 at 11:22 AM, columbia1 wrote:

Please update us on the bet you made a month ago with Mohawk! My pick is as follows:

MHK +5.47points

LVS +27.47points

How are the other bets going?

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#3) On December 05, 2008 at 12:12 PM, jegr5347 (< 20) wrote:

I think alstry is trying to keep us busy with his posts and not acknowleding some great picks folks made as a result of his challenge. I even had to correct mine due to a technicality.

sks -15.96%

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#4) On December 05, 2008 at 12:20 PM, synergize (29.21) wrote:

for growth investing consider: OCN,TSCO,TSCO

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#5) On December 05, 2008 at 1:32 PM, debtRichQuick (< 20) wrote:


I consider myself on of Alstry's best online friends. Here is a quote from Alstry that has stuck with me since he posted it.  One I find psychological comfort in when he starts talking about 20-30% unemployment.

"My personal history is replete with poor returns on many individual investments. However, there have been the occasional successes. Whether the relatively few hits will continue to outweigh the many misses will only be determined with time:)"

 There are a couple rules Alstry has. They're implied, never told.

1. Question everything. Even him. I'm sure if you asked he would tell you he finds much merit in the Socratic Method.

2. Alstry is a philanthropist, but his least favorite thing is leading the blind. Do your own DD.

3. Alstry is an economist in may ways. More often too early instead of wrong.

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#6) On December 05, 2008 at 2:15 PM, debtRichQuick (< 20) wrote:

I forgot to note that just because you escaped the grip of Alstry for a couple weeks, doesn't mean you are in the clear.

 DHI, BBY, SPF, HOV, MTH, RYL, and a whole host of others...that only defied Alstry for a few quarters.

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#7) On December 05, 2008 at 2:21 PM, debtRichQuick (< 20) wrote:

Oh, and I almost forgot. Alstry likes winning, and part of winning is figuring out the CAPS game. Follow closely and you will see what Alstry sees...



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#8) On December 05, 2008 at 2:38 PM, columbia1 wrote:

I was just curious about the picks people made, he, Alstry, never made a complete list of all the fools and their picks that I could see. January is coming fast!!!! ;)

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#9) On December 05, 2008 at 3:55 PM, jester112358 (28.22) wrote:

Let's look at the positive side.  20-30% unemployement is really over 70% employment!  That's pretty, pretty good, as Larry David might say. :)

 Hey, and another thing, if we all just believe everything will be alright and booming again, won't it?  Whereas, if we're all negative, isn't that a self-fulfilling proficy?  After all, this positive attitute has worked for the FIRE economy for the last 20 years, all the while we shipped real jobs and industry overseas.

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#10) On December 05, 2008 at 4:17 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


The bet ain't over until February.....never count your chips when sitting at the table.  That has been my motto since starting caps last February.  You can check for yourself.

As far as DebtRich goes, he and I have been online friends for a while now.  I have developed great respect for his knowledge and temperment.

As far as his assessment of me, I will let my words be my online legacy.  One thing is absolutely true, few on CAPS have lost as much money as I have in a very short period of time.  Is Alstry a loser.....absolutely and time and time again.

As far as wins.......:)

When interviewing people, I rarely judge them on their successes.  It is their ability to overcome distress and adversity that I focus on.......that is what determines character.

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#11) On December 05, 2008 at 8:23 PM, jeffduby (22.72) wrote:

It's amazing how vitriolic bulls get when you say that buying stocks is a bad idea. I wrote a very similar blog today and recieved a lot of negative feedback. I can't help but agree with your rather grim assessment. Rec for you.

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