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JedBarleycorn (< 20)

The crash of 2013



November 27, 2013 – Comments (6)

I want to sketch out some of my concerns that the market may be due for a punch in the nose. The following indicators have a longtime proven record for happening at market tops. While market rallies sometimes don’t know when to stop, I believe it’s time to pull up your sox.

Margin debt is at record levels (way too high).

Insider selling is too high (About their own company, insiders are truly in the know.)

Stock Market Advisors Overwhelmingly Bullish (Generally speaking, they’re NOT in the know.)

VIX (Fear) indicator: Its value is determined by market factors, (i.e. opinion backed by money.)

Stock buybacks are at market highs. (Companies don’t have anything better to do with their money?)

Bond funds are buying stocks (What, no bonds to buy?)

The FED is out of money to cushion the crash, if crash there be.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 27, 2013 at 11:05 PM, awallejr (34.04) wrote:

Oh stop with crash talk.  Corrections yes, but the fundamentals don't come close to calling for a crash.  Problem is the dips are bought to early to allow for a "nice" correction.  And there is a reason for that, mainly a lack of alternatives.

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#2) On November 28, 2013 at 3:17 AM, JedBarleycorn (< 20) wrote:

These 6 factors have a nasty habit of showing up at market tops far too often to be ignored. There are fundamental reasons for this. Ignore them at your peril.

You are spot on about a lack of alternatives. Add easy money from the FED filling that lack to see why the rally goes on.

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#3) On November 28, 2013 at 10:12 AM, awallejr (34.04) wrote:

Except that easy money is sitting in banks or at the Fed.  When I start seeing high PE multiples then I will be concerned.

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#4) On November 28, 2013 at 3:14 PM, jiltin (46.04) wrote:

Revenues are going up with buying spree everywhere.

As long as FED supports, stocks are going up with likely minor correction between Dec 15 to Jan 20th. 

Real correction may happen after FED pull off whch we never know at this point.


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#5) On November 28, 2013 at 3:53 PM, tko9999 (< 20) wrote:

Could you provide the sources you are quoting and some quantitative amount with your statements?  Like is margin debt up 10%, 50% or 100%?  Thanks

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#6) On December 01, 2013 at 4:57 AM, JedBarleycorn (< 20) wrote:


A good source for this information is which has articles on each of these terms.

Just google each phrase and read the article and you will have what you need.


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