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goldminingXpert (28.81)

The Dangers of (f)oolishly Following Floridabuilder



March 20, 2009 – Comments (48) | RELATED TICKERS: MTH , SU , X

A very alarming tendency on this sight I've noticed is that people end up not only dogpiling onto, but enthusiastically recommending the stocks that top fools like. As a top fool myself, I find it awkward to write about this subject, because it makes me feel good when people dogpile on my picks. That said, I'd be concerned if people were blindly telling their friends to buy stocks I recommended--that wouldn't be good. ALWAYS do research before buying a stock, particularly off a tip. Why do I bring this up?

I received this comment from a pretty smart guy, MLG100, who has wandered off the reservation in terms of his trust in the Floridabuilder.

"Floridabuilders says they [MTH] are here to stay and will be one of the survivors. I think that they will easily beat the market in the next year. You might have trouble getting green on this one."

What do we have here? Somebody rubbing in the fact that my MTH was momentarily in the red. He starts with the thesis. Floridabuilders says they [MTH] are here to stay. Should we trust Floridabuilder? Well, he's certainly a genius when it comes to throwing red thumbs at the builders. However, he reached his pedestal by calling a bear market in builders as the biggest bear in builders in my lifetime was kicking off. What's his track record during bull markets? Do we have any reason to expect that he can call a bottom? Livermore--one of the greatest short sellers ever--wiped himself out going long too early--Floridabuilder will be proven wrong, the housing market is not turning, and these pathetic little urban sprawlers are going to lose their brawl with the true ballers--the bears.

Part two of MLG100's comment, the undefended opinion, "I think that they will easily beat the market in the next year." With their crippling loses (more than their entire market cap just within the past year), nothing about MTH suggests easy. Finally, the punchline, "You might have trouble getting green on this one."Why do I call it a punchline? It's so laughable that me red-thumbing an insolvent company that is losing its market cap every year would lose me points. This is like shorting EXMA.ob, it's child-play. Just three days after his comment, my MTH pick is up 20 points, his MTH pick? Of that's right, he only picks ultraETFs, but whatever, if he had given MTH a green thumb, he'd be underwater after MTH fell more than 10% yesterday and then an additional 23 (!) percent today. Is MTH going to declare bankruptcy this weekend? Probably not, though I sure hope they do (as one of the main culprits of the housing bubble that caused this depression, they deserve to die, hopefully in a painful ardous ceremony). But, companies losing more than their entire market cap doesn't last long (unless you're named GM and can get the goverment to shovel dough at you), and I'm quite confident that the collapse of MTH will be complete by the end of 2010.

Floridabuilder may be a good caller of bottoms, but there is no proof, he's gotten to where he is off of a bear market, trusting him, or me, or Specbear to call a market bottom is (f)oolish. We got to where we are because we foresaw the calamity that hit us now. Are we good at forecasting a new bull market? Only time will tell. It is worth noting that a CAPS member recently calculated the total pts. scored off green thumbs by the top 10. Both Everyday and Specbear have NET LOST POINTS off green thumbs, and I'm only up about 1,500 points off the green thumbs. There are far better callers of outperforms than most of the top 10 (excepting Tenmiles) When Specbear, or Everyday, or Florida, or myself says a company is headed to the pink sheets, you should probably pay attention. When any of us calls a company that has 3x debt to equity a "survivor" you should get a second opinion. The truth is, MTH, like most of the bubblebuilding industry, is headed to zero. My price target on the scam that is Allied Crapital (ALD) is 0.0003. I feel fair value for MTH is roughly 0.0003 as well, give or take a few hunderths of a penny.

48 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 20, 2009 at 5:56 PM, goldminingXpert (28.81) wrote:

sight I've noticed

Haha, I feel like an idiot. At least I had my mind on seeing when I typed that. ;)

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#2) On March 20, 2009 at 6:07 PM, goldminingXpert (28.81) wrote:

Disclosure: GMX has no position in MTH. Not only that, but he has never had a position in MTH, and has not traded any homebuilders in months.

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#3) On March 20, 2009 at 6:14 PM, DaretothREdux (49.44) wrote:


Good points here. I am actually kinda proud that I went against FB on this pick myself.

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#4) On March 20, 2009 at 6:21 PM, SurvivalInfo (< 20) wrote:

I've been saying this for a couple of years now.  Take away the ETFs, entire sector bets, and crappy underperform calls and most of the leaders in CAPS would be in the red, much less "allstars". 

Everyone should be careful when picking who to follow if any real money is involved.


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#5) On March 20, 2009 at 6:27 PM, TigerPack1 (33.58) wrote:

I have had you on my short list of Favorites on CAPS for some time now.

By the summertime, I've got a feeling about half of the first 20 Caps board will be bulls, mostly with green thumbs, and the other half will be the top 10 or 15 currently struggling to maintain their lead, picking mostly thumbs down selections.

I have collected a strong-contender list of 10 or so "bulls" that are posting lots of CAPS points DURING a bear market.  Many of them will rocket into the top 20-40 with another 15%-20% rise in stocks generally.

Keep up the good work!

I "taught" my high school and undergraduate econ teachers back in the 1980s a little about stock investing, but my knowledge base was nothing compared to your posts, points and ideas.  You have got to be in graduate school, am I right???  I find it difficult to believe you could have acquired the knowledge of stocks you have before age 21?  If so I am VERY jealous, as you should have a bright future accumulating wealth indeed.

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#6) On March 20, 2009 at 6:28 PM, goldminingXpert (28.81) wrote:

By the way, Floridabuilder has a net total of +2 points on MTH across his 9 cumulative picks on the stock. That's a little better than dart-throwing (not much).

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#7) On March 20, 2009 at 6:30 PM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

If the ability to make easy money was to simply copy tops CAPS scorers, the we would all be rich.  CAPS scoring is about relative performance, and red thumbing stocks, especially small cap and bb pk etc stocks is an easy way to score points, but not a viable investment thesis.


FB has unique knowledge, and that was valuable to us in the beginning of this, especially in revealing how deep this assett bubble was.  Picking bottoms, like Doug Kass and others, is an enitrely different entity.  There is lots of debt to delever, lots of people about to become unemployed, and assett sales in general are going to force prices down.


BTW   why buy stocks in a sector you don't understand?  Just take a pass.


When I first discovered CAPS, I thought it would be a relative cinch to find top performers and sift their picks for a treasure trove of great companies.  In a bull market, that is partially correct.  But the real money makers are those with a modest number or picks who understand macroeconomics and can forsee trends, and make some picks and give them time to run.

BY the time they have made their points, the thesis is well underway and change is usually pending.


There are some great CAPS people here, and some darn good stockpickers.


But real money is different that CAPS picks.  Diversify, dollar cost in, wait for severe selloffs to enter the market, and cut your positions back if they ahve a good run. 


It has cost me a lot of money to develop a firm strategy, and sometimes I violate it.  But I am up in 2008, and have gotten pretty good at seeing the extremes.


Everyone should do their own DD, and not blindly copy other persons picks.


An example of this BTW is a person with the name demondougspicks.  I guess he thought an easy way to win was to copy a top scored person and click away.  Last I checked, his score was low, and if he has real $ in the market, he's hurting.


Demon Doug understands business cycles, and especially energy, and made a great call years ago picking energy.  Those are points under his belt that are like poker chips on your table.  They take time to accumulate.


We are in deflation.  Still.  Prices are falling lower.  Risk is high.  Beware.

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#8) On March 20, 2009 at 6:43 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


That could be good for a five day major........

If it wasn't so true.....I would be laughing my head off....

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#9) On March 20, 2009 at 6:47 PM, SkinneeJ (28.59) wrote:

Does it really even matter if you use red thumbs or green thumbs?  Remember, you are not picking a stock to go UP just because you have a green thumb, you are only picking it to BEAT THE MARKET.  I can put a green thumb on a stock and it can drop 10 points, but if the market dropped 15 points, then I am still getting 5 points for it.

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#10) On March 20, 2009 at 6:54 PM, goldminingXpert (28.81) wrote:

SkinneeJ--MTH fell 23% today on top of a more than 10% loss yesterday. The green thumb and wait for the market to fall further approach doesn't work in this case.

Alstry--I made no accusations against FloridaBuilder. I just said he hasn't proven his credentials when it comes to picking bottoms.

TigerPack--Thanks for the kind words. I am in fact only an undergraduate.

nuf2bedangerous--At least when it comes to housing, the bottom isn't even on the horizon. I agree with your comments, particularly when it comes to making your own strategy.

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#11) On March 20, 2009 at 7:40 PM, portefeuille (98.83) wrote:

Here is the abovementioned list again:

On February 25, 2009 at 7:24 AM, portefeuille (99.91) wrote:

Some time ago I looked at the points the "top 8" players in caps had scored with "outperform calls".

I had to go to 8 because that was the first to have scored "considerably" that way ("BravoBevo" - 7779 points with "outperform calls" at that time). 

"outperform scores" of the others:

2905 (tenmiles), 1903 (tdrh), 1329 (goldminingxpert), 1282 (specbear), 440 (dwot), -332 (everydayinvestor), -400 (nicvo).


I have not updated the list.



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#12) On March 20, 2009 at 7:53 PM, portefeuille (98.83) wrote:

the list is from here.

I just reread it: well formulated  despair!


Change this highly ineffective scoring system. NOW!

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#13) On March 20, 2009 at 7:55 PM, portefeuille (98.83) wrote:

the post is highly recommended reading of course, not the list ...

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#14) On March 20, 2009 at 8:33 PM, goldminingXpert (28.81) wrote:

My apologies to Specbear. I confused him and Nicvo. Thanks for digging up the list again.

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#15) On March 20, 2009 at 10:24 PM, GNUBEE (< 20) wrote:

GMX, this is a very good lesson to point out to any new inductee who has not been around long enough to pick this up already.

CAPS is as much stock picking as it is player picking. Top scores do not always mean you've found a true allstar. The wider your horizon, the better informed your decision will be. Like Abitare said in GMX's post (Ref'd by Portefuille) "Fools, who are here long enough, get to watch all the turn over of Allstars and get to determine, the "wheat from the Chaff". "

There is as much a need for DD when looking at players as there is stocks. 'Nuf and I must be about the same age in "caps years" (similar to dog years, but applied to CAPS). I'd say personally I'm somewhere around toddler age. When he said "When I first discovered CAPS, I thought it would be a relative cinch to find top performers and sift their picks for a treasure trove of great companies." he couldn't have been more right.

Lesson one: There's no free lunch. You want something, fine WORK FOR IT.

I have not made it much farther than that. I am still testing stuff out, riding sectors/ETF's and trying to learn by watching the likes of "real" pickers.

slightly off topic, - Hey portfeuille, stop blogging, I don't want anyone to know you exist- except me. For those who don't know who he is, move along---nothing to see here. I've already lost too many other bright minds to popularity.

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#16) On March 20, 2009 at 10:39 PM, chevionUSA (< 20) wrote:

you talk too much and being a top fool means nothing!!! most people here don't take caps as seriously as you, many don't even know the rules...i have a 90+ rating and it was only months ago that I read the rules and my rating went up from <20 to don't think you are a genius..if anything u need to get a job!!!

So talking about that stuff made me idiot will follow/can follow top fool's picks

the only reason you are a top fool is because you knew the made some picks and when they went over +5 you ended those pics and collected the points.

to prove this to you I am doing the same thing with my new screen name chevionUSA....yesterday my acuracy was 80% because I ended a stock was lower because I added up bunch of i just wait until they go over certian points and end them...and there you go...with acuracy of %100 and picks that i ended at over 5 points i will be a top fool in no time...and this defenetly doesn't mean I know anything about stocks...but I know one thing for sure..I know more than you.

I once read: Experience is the best teacher and the most expensive one.

I've lost too much money over the last 20 years in stocks..and that's why I know more than you.

A lot of good top fools like specbear also lost money like me...that's why they r top fools....but you sir are just an arogant fool.

you posted some stupid links on my blog and now you think you know my country better than me??? those link/websites were very unreialble and shady...and the pictures..i even don't know if that's really one is taking you seriously anyways. 

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#17) On March 20, 2009 at 10:40 PM, portefeuille (98.83) wrote:

hihihi! (german for "giggling")

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#18) On March 20, 2009 at 10:51 PM, portefeuille (98.83) wrote:

okay - you are right gnubee, I will stop blogging until I am one of the top ten. Then I will start some serious top 10 bashing. I will keep adding to my (secret) portefeuille-portfolio though.

See you then!

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#19) On March 20, 2009 at 11:12 PM, GNUBEE (< 20) wrote:

I'll be watching!, goal for March has to get to Zero points, and I'm almost there!

Best of luck PF

--Movin' on up..too the east side

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#20) On March 21, 2009 at 12:17 AM, Effloresce (26.50) wrote:

I don't really understand the point in dog-piling on top players picks. For one thing, you're not going to learn anything by doing that; and for another, many of the top players frequently are selecting highly volatile, speculative, and/or risky picks, because they've got the high enough point totals to allow them to do that. If they drop 500-1000 points, it's really not that big a deal when you're talking about point totals upwards of 10,000. In other words they can afford to take risks, whereas if I dropped 1000 points in one day, I might just as well go ahead and start completely over. And it's fun to make your own picks...

That doesn't mean I don't look out for helpful tips from top players, such as when they point out some of these obscure, total dog companies. I'd very likely never find out about them any other way, so I appreciate when any of those players care to share that information. :)

I've done very poorly at this game, but that's my own fault. I didn't understand the importance of trying to *not* close picks in the red, and picks that were under 5% in the green, and the fact that sometimes it's good to take the points while they're still available to you, because you can always reload again once you've booked your points. 

One thing I've discovered is that my ability to 'time' the market is absolutely terrible, just pathetic. I mean I've gotten hammered nine ways to Sunday on financials. I'd green thumb them and they'd drop like a rock- then I'd get tired of that, put the red thumb to them, and of course at that point there they go, up, up and away. Heh. ;)

I also got killed on stupid ultra ETF's, which I don't even believe in as a legitimate investment (or at least not one I'd ever want any part of), but which I chose because I was trying to score some quick and easy points- or so I thought, but instead got murderated on. That was just dumb on my part, and I should never put the green thumb up on something I would never even think to own in my lifetime. 

It's been instructive, a little frustrating at times though. My goal for March is to get at least halfway to zero. Wish me rotsah ruck!

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#21) On March 21, 2009 at 1:09 AM, floridabuilder2 (98.63) wrote:

Goldmining Expert... shouldn't people be wary of you?  Anyone can get into the top 100 of caps using various techniques such as harvesting, betting against ultra shorts, etc...

Now that your a top 10 caps player which has no direct correlation to investing... people are to listen to you?

I joined caps to enlighten people of the falsehoods of the builders book values.. read any of my early posts...  I traded stocks also during my caps blogginng on the side waiting for capitulation in residential land assets (specifically acquiring defaulted debt) we are in that phase now... oh but thats right your the expert on builders and land assets and valuations...

I left caps for various reasons one of which was people who copied my picks and I feared putting money on those picks...  caps is merely an investment tool which requires hundreds of picks to get a star ranking system....  I don't and didn't want people to follow my picks... my picks are part of the star system

The ncaa tourney just ended a few minutes ago and I figured I would take a quick look at any decent blog titles...  I would suggest if your going to attack someone you put your effort towards people who actually give a $hit and who are playing caps more than say.... 5 minutes a week....

by the way, last spring I discussed this same topic in another blog thread on caps about copy cats and not following top players because they are not top investors including me... funny thing is I didn't finger point

the stock market is rigged, i found that out when I was blogging at the beginning knowing what was really going on vs. what the CEOs were saying at the homebuilders....  that is why since sept 2008 at market capitulation all my money will be invested in assets that I personally value... no more stock market for me... 

what I find amazing is that you are taking the time to attack me yet you are recommending people short MTH because it is going to zero...  I clicked on your link above between your exchange with MLG100... on what basis?  Or should I just follow your lead because your a top 10 caps player!!! wow I'm impressed!!!  I made the top 10 too... big effing deal


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#22) On March 21, 2009 at 1:15 AM, floridabuilder2 (98.63) wrote:

 by the way, your point is correct just try not to be such an a-hole in the future... its people like you that really really turned me off when it came to caps blogging...  read any of my blog posts (not comments when I occassionaly have to dual with a nut case or two)..... do any of my blog posts go on and on attacking other fools?  nope

they are mainly negative about builder valuations and that the survivors will be very powerful

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#23) On March 21, 2009 at 6:08 AM, kaskoosek (29.94) wrote:


I think that GMX was informative, there is no need to take it personally.

There is a reason why a lot of caps players are following you and some times it can hurt a lot of people in real life.

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#24) On March 21, 2009 at 7:59 AM, Xciteddon (68.87) wrote:

I am new to CAPS. I have learned a lot by watching and listening and reading the blogs on post here on TMF. I like reading other peoples opinions, keeping in mind they are like noses, everybody has one. I have favorite players also. Some are high scores some not. Some write very informative blogs and post interesting opinions. But in the end weather I invest or choose a stock for CAPS it is still my choice. I take the responsibility. So do you. I like looking at other players choices just because maybe they have chosen a stock I have never seen or heard of before that appears to be doing well. I can see when they chose it and what kind of scores it has and I can go and research it for myself and decide if this is something I am interested in and then I stick it on a watch list for a while. In this market there is no hurry because everything has been going down anyway! But it give us a better chance to look at  just what a stock is doing. I don't think it is fair to blame others for your mistakes. If  you don't do the research you get what you deserve. If you do do the reseach and it bombs hopefully you have learned something. Education of any kind isn't free!  All of this is just a tool to help you learn and make an informed choice. I have to say, that I have enjoyed all the blogs! I think everyone one has made great points. We all can bring something special to the table. Thank you all!

Thank you GMX for blogging this. I think it needed to be said.

Have a Great Day!


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#25) On March 21, 2009 at 10:46 AM, TDRH (96.89) wrote:

Floridabuilder,   to start I think GMX was just using you as an example of some the dangers of blindly following anyone's picks.    Although in the area of homebuilders, I think he chose an extremely  poor example.  

The strength of your analysis and understanding of this area of the market is well documented, and I have made a great deal of points in CAPS, and more importantly money in MRLP following your advice.    I do not always agree with, or follow your advice, but I do not normally go against it.   You are well missed, and I have yet to find anyone with the in depth knowledge of any segment of the market to match your expertise.

 That said, the market is humbling, a harsh mistress and fortunes have been lost.   We are coming close to the time where the answer will not lie in shorting exchange funds, but in separating the wheat from the chafe.  The leaders going forward will be those that select the wheat as I believe poretefeuille was trying to say. 

When the market bottoms and maybe before, those companies that have survived and maintained reasonable economies of scale will be looking at a weak competitive landscape.   There will be less leverage available for competitors to grow and compete.   Floridabuilder wrote a long time ago about divergence in homebuilders, a separation of survivors and pretenders.    This will be true in all market segments.   The questions are which companies, when, and for how long.   These are the questions we need to be asking, and the answers we need to be looking for.  

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#26) On March 21, 2009 at 12:05 PM, EverydayInvestor (< 20) wrote:

I should note that FB's pan of OHB, one of his most recent, has been right on the money. I should also note that I made real money shorting SSBX after FB panned it.

Of course, always do your own due diligence.

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#27) On March 21, 2009 at 2:43 PM, goldminingXpert (28.81) wrote:

Thanks for the comments everyone. I may or may not respond to more of them, time permitting. However, I want to address this one as it sums up a lot of thoughts here, Everyday said, 

I should note that FB's pan of OHB, one of his most recent, has been right on the money. I should also note that I made real money shorting SSBX after FB panned it.

Of course, always do your own due diligence.

I don't think anyone is disputing that Floridabuilder deserves great acclaim for his bearish calls on homebuilding. He's certainly been the community leader in terms of shining the light on this industry. However, his track record making bullish calls on them is scant. Just as both you (Everyday) and myself have a long ways to go in prooving that we can in fact green thumb ourselves out of a paper bag, the responsibilty also lays on Floridabuilder. It's a whole different ballgame calling outperforms on stocks versus underperforms, and between Floridabuilder's own extremely negative comments on MTH and their putrid balance sheet, I think he's simply off the mark on this one. Having another Fool slam my pick of MTH based of Florida's advice just crosses a line when it comes to dogpiling...I mean goodness, Florida has been bashing Texas builders for years, he suddenly turns bullish and we are supposed to overlook their pathetic excuse for a balance sheet?



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#28) On March 21, 2009 at 4:15 PM, EverydayInvestor (< 20) wrote:

haha GMX ... I know I'm not good at greenthumbing ... which is why my long term investments are broad-market ETFs and 90% of my trading is short selling.


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#29) On March 21, 2009 at 4:47 PM, bothisellhigher (28.97) wrote:

Everybody take a deep breath and exhale slowly...and remember that the idea is ideas...the more ideas to ponder, the more probability of finding something useful to pursue...what I'm really interested in is making money, not being a top fool and not being smarter or better or more well spoken than someone else. 

I have a propellor on my head for instance...kinda cute...but GMX, Good Vibe and others have actually helped me nail down profits of 9% in January, 10% in February and 3 % so far in March...that is a solid improvement over my stock picking performance in say, 2007 and I am very grateful. 

No, I don't blindly follow their leads, but I listen, and tweak my plans and explore new ideas of making a buck because of their inputs. And many others-probably yours. Thank you, and thank you in advance...I'll be reading. 

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#30) On March 21, 2009 at 6:53 PM, SuperPicks (28.47) wrote:

This blog post and the following comments has to be the most important blog post regarding CAPs system & players.  Every existing player & especially any new players should be exposed to this post. 

Thank you GMX for the great blog post & starting the discussion.

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#31) On March 21, 2009 at 7:12 PM, foolsMeThrice (99.59) wrote:

I used to follow other people's pick and copy, but I eventually started picking my own then check caps as a reference to see what the community thinks.


It's true what you say about FB.  He nabbed TDRH with a few bad calls if I remember correctly.

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#32) On March 21, 2009 at 8:25 PM, DDHv (< 20) wrote:

I'm using a spreadsheet watchlist, with as many key statistics as possible, and an evaluation column. When investable cash is available, the evaluation column is cleared, the sort facility gets me the best 5% in each statistic, and the evaluation column is incremented by an amount based in the usefulness of that statistic. There is room for 40 key statistics, one of which is the CAPS star rating (if any). And still the best I can do is trim the list to about 2% of the total, after which examination of reports, news items, etc., in other words, due diligence needs to be done.

 This does allow me to keep a large watch list without having to spend much time on detailed examination. Updating can be done in my spare time. BTW, can anyone point to somewhere telling how to automate getting figures on companies into a spreadsheet?

 Remember Buffet's comment on how the receding tide shows who is naked? A bear market is useful not only for buying bargains, but for identifying the bums!!

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#33) On March 23, 2009 at 1:54 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

Isn't scouring through CAPS to find the players that can make correct green thumb picks fun? What GMX is blogging about is probably one of the best lessons in CAPS. If you are willing to put money on the line because of somebody on the internet making a thumb up call and you are willing to follow, then by all means......have fun with that trading style:)

Now imagine going through all the ports with so many switching to shorts and such. Bummer....I think it has stopped me from trying to find really good green thumbers on caps for ideas.....just ideas.

GMX- The majority of the "smarter" crowd I hang with do not have degrees. I think too much emphasis is put on schooling. Don't take it to heart when people look down on you for being young. Same thing for CAPS. Take it all in stride:)

DDHV- I think thegarcipian does spreadsheets that automatically update....not too sure on that though.

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#34) On March 23, 2009 at 2:43 PM, zzlangerhans (99.83) wrote:

No TMF commenters here. It's like they have a rule not to speak when people are discussing using CAPS as an actual investment tool. For any who are actually reading, have you noticed how many people are keeping their own databases to see which players can make outperform picks that are worth following? Unfortunately, isolating green thumbs doesn't solve the problem. There are also .OB and .PK picks where the bid/ask spreads waver stochastically, and even errors that briefly appear on the exchanges that can be immediately capitalized on in CAPS with a powerful screener running 9-5. These green thumbs have added thousands of points to some players' outperform scores, but are uninvestable in real life.

Lots of players are trying to use Top Fools to pick real-life winners, and I think we've all been burned badly. Too much noise and gaming obscuring the true outperformers. If TMF wanted to improve our abilities in this respect the solution is easy. There are already dozens of useless searching tools and screens on the site. Just add a tool that allows users to screen for different types of scores: green thumbs only, eliminate ETFs, eliminate .OB and .PK, correct for S&P metric, isolate sector, whatever the player wanted. The actual scoring and Top Ten would remain unchanged, but each player would be able to create an individualized list of Top Fools that suited his own investing purposes. And probably just a day of work to put in the code.

I suspect this will never happen. CAPS does not seem interested in identifying true market outperformers, but rather players.  

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#35) On March 23, 2009 at 5:01 PM, portefeuille (98.83) wrote:

Could someone (zzlangerhans would be my choice) please formulate a nice concise post that summarises the major concerns with the scoring system that have been formulated here and in similar posts and that might include suggestions like "Just add a tool that allows users to screen for different types of scores: green thumbs only, eliminate ETFs, eliminate .OB and .PK, correct for S&P metric, isolate sector, whatever the player wanted."?

I would suggest it ends something like:

"... do not recommend this post if you do not agree, but if you do: DO RECOMMEND THIS POST"

It might receive 100 recommendations within minutes and may not be as easily "overlooked" by the "staff" here.


(sorry gnubee, this is just a follow-up ...)

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#36) On March 23, 2009 at 10:12 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:


That is messed up, I already rec'd the blog before you put the "do recommend ths post" up. I have fears of TMF putting your plan or zzlangerhans into place. As I have said in this blog, it is actually fun to find the thumb up caps ports that entertain you. If you make it too easy, what will happen is even more dogpiling, but nobody will know who really made the call. There will be pure chaos. If the plan goes into affect, players will simply find really good stock pickers at a whim and then copycat them all to death. Then nobody will be able to decipher a really good investor on please let it be.

If I were a rec whore, I would do exactly as you have mentioned.....but I aint and I hope nobody else will either. FB just put a post up with this linked in it, so the main issue of the blog is already usual on CAPS. Not that I don't blame FB, but that is what comes of the popularity game on CAPS:(

Just think of how many copy cats you would actually uncover during your new search engine and critierias and how much work it would be to decipher through that mess. It is actually fairly simple to find the decent investors compared to what would happen if the player screener is implemented. Do yourself a favor and let it be.

Sometimes theories and point systems with great ideas and tools just don't mix. Remember, this is just a stock picking site.....not a player picking site.

Block the bad and harness the good.

Short the bad stocks and harness the good stocks.

Ignore the bad players and keep the good players to yourself.

Most of the good players that I linger on day in and day out don't make the fav list.....although that doesn't mean I don't have really good players in the fav list, it is just that I actually communicate with those good players. Usually:) 

Let me know if this doesn't make sense....I will try to explain it mo'better if need be.

PS: I am glad the staff has overlooked this and I think they have done it intentionally. They have a mutual fund with all the knowledge and breakdown of players at their whim. Why would they want to lose the control of it?

Again, if somebody is crazy enough to buy a stock because of somebody on the internet.....then they should learn the hard way......just not too hard I hope. 

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#37) On March 23, 2009 at 10:30 PM, SuperPicks (28.47) wrote:

Umm zzlangerhans' suggestion above would VASTLY improve the current CAPs system.

The real deal of what zz proposes (which I completely agree with, and so will most other CAPs players such as portefeuille):

Just add a tool that allows users to screen for different types of scores: green thumbs only, eliminate ETFs, eliminate .OB and .PK, correct for S&P metric, isolate sector, whatever the player wanted. The actual scoring and Top Ten would remain unchanged, but each player would be able to create an individualized list of Top Fools that suited his own investing purposes. And probably just a day of work to put in the code.

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#38) On March 23, 2009 at 10:32 PM, SuperPicks (28.47) wrote:

I should add that ZZ's suggestion means there's no need to change anyone's scoring, no need to change the scoring system, no need to change existing charms, or anything of that nature. 

Simply allow us to have better search/screening capabilities.

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#39) On March 23, 2009 at 10:34 PM, SuperPicks (28.47) wrote:

Anyone here suggest I throw it up?  I've in the past regrettingly put up a vote to bring back score leader box after saying 15minutes later nevermind forget I posted - that received something like 40 recs.

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#40) On March 23, 2009 at 10:47 PM, portefeuille (98.83) wrote:

Just in case I have been misunderstood:

Please, someone make a nice little post summarising the problems with the current scoring system and lack of proper sorting/screening tools.

Then, please, everyone in support give a recommendation to THAT post (the future one kindly written by whoever does us the favour ...)!


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#41) On March 23, 2009 at 10:52 PM, portefeuille (98.83) wrote:

Go ahead superpicks! There should be no problem with having several POPs (Posts Of Protest), we should just unite our recommendation powers on the ultimate vote-here post.

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#42) On March 24, 2009 at 1:24 AM, BigFatBEAR (28.44) wrote:

Good post here. As one of your biggest dogpilers (erm, one of your biggest fans?) in CAPS and in real life, I feel like this was something I needed to hear.

I'm red-thumbed on MTH I think because you were (and a few others), and the balance sheet didn't look so hot. When FB went long on it, it made me want to close out as soon as I hit +5...   but maybe now I'll be more patient. :)

Ya gotta admit, though, MTH has held up quite well compared to the market...   (or maybe I just shorted at a horrible point)

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#43) On March 24, 2009 at 3:25 AM, SuperPicks (28.47) wrote:

portefeuille I'm not sure exactly what solutions are being proposed for the scoring system compared to what's in place right now.

But I'm definitely for sure with what ZZ posted (the proper screening/searching) tools. 

Thoughts? comments?

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#44) On March 24, 2009 at 6:52 AM, portefeuille (98.83) wrote:

Just add a tool that allows users to screen for different types of scores: green thumbs only, eliminate ETFs, eliminate .OB and .PK, correct for S&P metric, isolate sector, whatever the player wanted. The actual scoring and Top Ten would remain unchanged, but each player would be able to create an individualized list of Top Fools that suited his own investing purposes. And probably just a day of work to put in the code.

Again, I guess quite a few of us could agree on that.

Maybe the most striking point has been made by madcowmonkey, notwithstanding his being the only one here NOT in support of our "common cause".

He wishes to keep the system as is, so the better (or less tired I might say) "dirt-diggers" could continue to profit from its current intransparency.

This sort of skewed thinking is the result of the current "state of affairs".

goldminingxpert is "THIS close to only underperforming ultra ETFS", zzlangerhans suggests "grade A Colombian white" as a benchmark just to show the arbitrariness of using the S&P, me, I feel almost ashamed of giving ratings on OB/PK stocks, even though it is just the ADRs of Volkswagen, BASF or Gazprom, just not to give the appearance of "being one of THOSE" and nurture my private portfolio in one of my blog posts to regain some “liberties”.

This has led to all kinds of despair and schizophrenia among too many of us.
This has got to stop.

(aside: this is the reason why I will not write OUR post … I seem to always go astray eventually – hope I DID make a point somewhere)



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#45) On March 24, 2009 at 9:51 AM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

HA!! You missed my point. Have fun with the new system if it is implemented.

As for being a dirt digger. Whatever........I don't dogpile unless it is for a redthumb and community alertness, but think what you want. 

BTW- the real system that CAPS needs is an allocation field. This would alleviate any idea of who has the fame for the best yes man. If that is the reason for the player screener.....then again have fun with that.

Again, it is a site for picking stocks not players. I will admit that I thought it would be a great idea for a player screener, until I thought it through.

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#46) On March 24, 2009 at 10:57 AM, MLGtrader (31.71) wrote:

Just for your information, FB has not been wrong to my knowledge about homebuilders.  When someone can time the industry that well, I think it is safe to trust them on a pick after doing your own due dilligence.  I always do my own due dilligence, but FB has a deeper vision in the homebuilding industry than I can find with my DD.

I have scoreleader on MTH from following FB's advice on it.  I have shorted it a number of times and longed it a number of times following FB.  FB has timed buys on builders perfectly as well.  He timed the Jan lows to buy KBH.  He timed the SPF equity infusion, where SPF rose over 50%.  He timed the Nov bottom in the builders one day early, when MTH rallied >100%. I have made tremendous amounts of money listening to FB and doing my own DD.

I don't know who said that I didn't do my own DD because I always do. I completely agree with FB that attackingspecific people is immature.  I know you did a blog post attacking my accounts, but I really don't care what one person thinks.  

Only time will tell how MTH does.

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#47) On March 24, 2009 at 11:22 AM, TMFJake (76.72) wrote:

zzlangerhans, I just replied to some of your requests/criticisms in your blog post on CAPS scoring.

I agree that we can do a better job of helping you to find CAPS members with the best returns on Outperform or Underperform Calls in isolation.  We could also provide a filter to filter out OTC stocks too.

We're a ways a way from developing a really powerful player screener, but we might be able to turn these out as Top Tens Page Lists relatively soon.  Let me see what we can do.

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#48) On March 23, 2011 at 12:39 PM, afewgoodstocks11 (47.67) wrote:

I think you CAN build a favorites list, and a use it to advantage, but not without working on it, which is good, you should have to work at it.

This very profile is run off such a theory. I admit I have played CAPS since Nov 2007, so I am familiar with the points made above. My Favorites list consist of players I'm familiar with, and who post. I also have criteria such as 'less than 100 active picks'.

I like the basic idea of being able to screen better for players. I would like new charms, which seems very CAPS oriented, and simple enough.

I wonder if new charms, and the ability to search with cross referencing charms, would be simple enough, and sufficient.

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