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Varchild2008 (84.37)

The Dollar could reverse this rally....yikes



March 17, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: BAC , C , F

So, I asked myself what could act as a party pooper to this bull rally we got going on?

Unfortunately, what could act as a party pooper....already is.... I have 3 words...
"Watch the Dollar."

The dollar could absolutely tank and extend our great recession further than Ben Bernanke's bottom call.  We could go back to DOW 6500... Maybe even achieve the scary DOW 5999.99 mark.

Pretty much hinges on the Dollar doing damage to our financial sector....Could raise oil prices damaging transportation, beverage, shipping, airlines, and other sectors.

With a falling dollar comes hyper inflation all over again.  That mixed with President Obama's CAP and TRADE mixed with his TAX HIKES mixed with his UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE programs... All boils down to a "head fake."

Yes.... I was bullish March 1st regarding "The MALL !!"   But, now "The MALL !!" keeps whispering to me... "Watch the dollar!"  And things aren't as pretty as they may seem.

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 17, 2009 at 7:12 AM, Varchild2008 (84.37) wrote:

I think Alstry's spector vectors are bouncing around in a cardboard box they can't get out of right now.. hence his pessimism regarding this rally.  Unfortunately he may be absolutely right to fear "Credit Card defaults," "Manufacturing contraction," "Export contraction," and of course "The Dollar." 

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#2) On March 17, 2009 at 9:24 AM, lenri (69.83) wrote:

It's hard to follow Dalstry but I do follow your blogs, Var. I think that the markets are going to remain volatile for quite awhile. I too believe that we could experience 8000 and then 6500 or 6000 or vice versa and then do it all over again. The markets are happy as a pig in s**t right now but it wouldn't take much to send them down. If they go down again I will buy more looking to exit after short gains. If they go up I will look to sell some old stagnant positions to free up cash for future falls. I believe 2009 will test the BETA of all stocks especially the Blue Chips but I do believe that money can be made if you are careful and not greedy. An investing mentor once told me 2 decades ago "always leave money on the table for the next guy when playing stocks. If you aim constantly for the top you are more apt to see the bottom."

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#3) On March 17, 2009 at 5:47 PM, Varchild2008 (84.37) wrote:

The Dollar is rallying up.... But that isn't impacting Oil prices any... As oil prices rise... America's increase in retail spending will slow :-(

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