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the end of the Gold Rush?

Recs

1

December 13, 2012 – Comments (20) | RELATED TICKERS: IAU , GLD , CEF

Yes, I know: whenever anyone gives a thumbs-down on gold, the gold bugs pile on.

Well, bring it on.

In support of my case,  I cite:

Joseph P. Kennedy, Sr. “...a famous rich guy in his day, exited the stock market in timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good...”

Next, I quote a news-wire story:

“Major online retailer eBay (EBAY) has recently launched a popular venue where individuals can buy gold bullion and coins.”

Mere coincidence? Perhaps. Nevertheless, check out my stock portfolio: I just gave a red thumbs down on every bullion stock I could find (I have had an underperform on IAU and GLD for a while). If there is one I missed (no, I am not referring to gold miners, just bullion), let me know. 

20 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 13, 2012 at 9:22 PM, Bkeepr100 (< 20) wrote:

EBay has always had numsmatic gold coins and both silver and gold bullion items on the site, so that much of the report is pure bullpucky.

If they can't get basic facts correct, it would not be prudent to base your strategy on such reports. just saying...

 

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#2) On December 14, 2012 at 1:23 AM, FleaBagger (29.71) wrote:

The shoeshine boy was presumably among the last people to get into the stock market. Today we have yet to see the majority of the financial elite, including most of the big money, get into gold. Almost all dollars are invested in debt or equities. If there is very little money invested in something (e.g. gold), it is not a bubble.

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#3) On December 14, 2012 at 2:25 AM, Valyooo (99.53) wrote:

@Fleabagger:

Money isn't really "invested" in anything.  If I buy gold from somebody, I give him cash, he gives me gold.  There is no money inside of the gold.

 

If I buy a stock from somebody, that person forfeits their stock, and I forfeit my cash.

 

So how could there be a lot of money invested in a particular asset class?  Unless you mean as a % of portfolio, in which case I believe you're wrong, as gold was a few months ago rated the safest asset by a wide ranging poll of investors, with stocks being the riskiest 

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#4) On December 14, 2012 at 2:25 AM, Valyooo (99.53) wrote:

@Fleabagger:

Money isn't really "invested" in anything.  If I buy gold from somebody, I give him cash, he gives me gold.  There is no money inside of the gold.

 

If I buy a stock from somebody, that person forfeits their stock, and I forfeit my cash.

 

So how could there be a lot of money invested in a particular asset class?  Unless you mean as a % of portfolio, in which case I believe you're wrong, as gold was a few months ago rated the safest asset by a wide ranging poll of investors, with stocks being the riskiest 

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#5) On December 14, 2012 at 10:25 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.83) wrote:

Could someone please help Jerry find ALL the relevant bullion tickers. Thanks in advance.

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#6) On December 14, 2012 at 11:21 AM, jerryguru69 (94.77) wrote:

I did find Definitive List Of Precious Metals ETFs . 

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#7) On December 14, 2012 at 11:30 AM, jerryguru69 (94.77) wrote:

also: Gold Bullion ETF List . 

 

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#8) On December 14, 2012 at 12:41 PM, Mega (99.96) wrote:

Only 16% of Americans were invested in stocks in 1929, yet it was a bubble. 67% of Americans were invested in stocks in 2002 (with many more trillions of dollars and a much larger percentage of assets), yet it was not a bubble.

The defining feature of bubbles is the distance from fair asset values, not the number of people or amount of money invested.

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#9) On December 14, 2012 at 2:42 PM, Melaschasm (53.44) wrote:

I think you are a little early on the gold bubble.  While this call should work in CAPS, it would be tough to stay short with real money.

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#10) On December 14, 2012 at 2:42 PM, GrtGglMgl (95.83) wrote:

Didn't Warren Buffet say something about investing in Gold? Oh yeah...

http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities/articles/Warren-Buffett-brka-gold-investing-investing/10/3/2012/id/44617

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#11) On December 14, 2012 at 2:45 PM, GrtGglMgl (95.83) wrote:

Now if someone knows of a good fund or ETF that holds copper or rare earth metals (used in manufacturing), I would welcome ideas and recommendations.

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#12) On December 14, 2012 at 2:56 PM, jerryguru69 (94.77) wrote:

rare earths from this link:

 REMX

copper from this link:

 JJC

CUPM

CPER

SCPR

LCPR

all of these are listed on CAPS.  

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#13) On December 14, 2012 at 3:00 PM, jerryguru69 (94.77) wrote:

"...this call should work in CAPS, it would be tough to stay short with real money."

Yes, I fully expect these picks to get clobbered in the short term. Note carefully that I am not calling a top, but judging the long term expectation of the price of the "precious".  

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#14) On December 14, 2012 at 3:09 PM, GrtGglMgl (95.83) wrote:

Thanks Jerry. Who is your favorite miner?

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#15) On December 14, 2012 at 3:18 PM, jerryguru69 (94.77) wrote:

Sorry, miners, like NG or oil drillers, are below my radar. I feel, probably wrongly, that I understand some of the moves of the commodities, this knowledge sadly does not seem to translate to the harvesters thereof. 

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#16) On December 14, 2012 at 8:14 PM, outoffocus (22.91) wrote:

Wow 15 comments and no recs? Yikes!

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#17) On December 14, 2012 at 9:01 PM, jerryguru69 (94.77) wrote:

when you are an anti-gold-bug, you expect these things.

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#18) On December 14, 2012 at 9:27 PM, ETFsRule (99.94) wrote:

"Bkeepr100 (< 20) wrote:

EBay has always had numsmatic gold coins and both silver and gold bullion items on the site, so that much of the report is pure bullpucky.

If they can't get basic facts correct, it would not be prudent to base your strategy on such reports. just saying..."

They did have the basic facts correct. Maybe you should try to understand what you're talking about before criticizing someone else.

EBay recently launched a new section of their site, the "APMEX Bullion Center". It has a daily market report on gold, a ticker showing gold prices, instructional videos about gold, a guide for buying gold, and an email newsletter about gold. Oh and their official "pick of the week", which is currently the 1 oz Perth Mint Gold Bar.

The Kennedy quote seems applicable.

http://www.ebay.com/gold-and-silver

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#19) On December 15, 2012 at 12:15 AM, ChrisGraley (29.87) wrote:

Ebay would be acting as the market maker. They wouldn't be buying or selling. They are facilitating the transaction. Not a positive or a negative to your point.

ETF's do you mean the quote where he called himself a jelly doughnut?

 

 

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#20) On December 15, 2012 at 10:43 AM, ETFsRule (99.94) wrote:

"Ebay would be acting as the market maker. They wouldn't be buying or selling. They are facilitating the transaction."

Thanks for the analysis, Einstein.

"Not a positive or a negative to your point."

Of course it is a positive. They are giving tips to gold investors, which directly supports the exact point that jerryguru69 made. Do you really not understand that point?

Also: the fact that we need another market maker for gold, complete with newsletters, etc, is very telling.

Nice trolling, though.

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