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wcaseym (43.26)

The Era Of Cheap Oil Is Over



November 22, 2008 – Comments (2)

Simmons reviewed IEA World Energy Report 2008 and here is what he concludes:

The supply of oil is growing very slowly, ... and it will so, ... slower still, over the next 20 years (i.e., falling way, way short of projected demand).


2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 22, 2008 at 4:17 PM, johnw106 (< 20) wrote:

The era of oil is over period. At least as a cash cow. Everyone seems to think oil is going to rebound to $150 a barrel over night.

It aint gonna happen.

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#2) On November 23, 2008 at 11:14 AM, wcaseym (43.26) wrote:

Everyone seems to think oil is going to rebound to $150 a barrel over night.

It aint gonna happen.


If you say so, ... mind you, predicting price of oil is pretty well a mug's game, ... right now, anyway! You see, you can not compare prices - historically, without also comaparing volatility. Current level of volatility is unprecedented, ... and for now, volatility is still increasing - not decreasing, and is being led by volatility in non-oil equities, ... and not oil! It is all panic-driven, pure and simple. This fact, pretty well, guarantees yet another - one or two, meltdown on Wall Street, ... and pretty well another wave of selling oil! Odds are excellent, ...

Anyway, ... after pretty well having mostly oohed and ahed our way through the first half of oil's amazing 6-year ride, we are now watching its movements as intently as, ... say, most mad futures trader does, and our level of concern seems to be building towards a panic. Since 2002 we've seen the price of WTI rise from the mid-$20's to the mid-$70s, ... then retrace to $51 in early 2007, before beginning its remorseless climb past $100, to... $147! Now, at less then $50, ...

Me, ... I normally do not consult crystal ball, ... but what I know / learned - so far, after years and years of gamblin' in energy and energy services - is this:

Global energy consumption is rising, oil and gas reserves are diminishing, and the frenzy worldwide to capture the remaining dregs is raging!

... but I'm repeating myself, ... sorry.

Enjoy life while you can!


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