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alstry (36.00)

The FED Zombulating America...America shutting down

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August 03, 2009 – Comments (23)

Anadarko Q2 rev $1.75 bln vs $2.77 bln

Revenues are continuing to evaporate across America.  Yes, some months they stablize, but the overall trend is down down down.  Even a dying patient's EKG stablizes on and off before they die...but if the disease continues to spread, the patient eventually dies.

In this case, the disease was the FED permitting the banking system to infect America with too much debt at too high an interest rate.  Now that the hospitals, school districts, municipalities and citizens can no longer sustain  the debt...is the FED taking any steps to alleviate the debt burden?

NO!!!!

The only thing they are doing is bailing out the banking buddies by letting banks refinance debt at 1/4% but forcing the rest of the Economy to pay much higher rates.

When Japan applied its Zombie bank policy, at least the Japanese people could refinance their debt at 1% giving the banks satisfactory margin and the economy a chance to survive.

With Americans paying high interest rates against evaporating revenues due to the contraction of credit from the banks...more and more American hospitals, school districts, cities etc are getting Zombulated and being forced to cut and cut and cut.  Pretty soon so much will be cut that there will be nothing left to cut.

Today, Jefferson County practically shut down all non essential offices because it could no longer meet debt service.  Why should the dealers of excessive debt be treated any differently than those that used it...especially our cities and states and hospitals?

Either Zombulate BOTH the banks and the cities, or restructure both.  But by only restructuring the banks, it will not be long before America shuts down and the banks own ALL of the assets of our nation.

Pretty soon, as more and more of America gets Zombulated becuase they are not able to service debt at high interest rates, they will be few businesses open and few left who will have any money.  At that point, the government must stay in business and it will have to go after the few with money to keep the system operating at a lower level.

At the current rate of revenue decline for cities, counties and states...plus factoring the rise of bankruptcies...America could be less than a year away from a 100% tax rate.  The problem is that it may not be enough due to declining incomes of the wealthy.....therefore an asset tax is the only thing left.

The only question now is what will our assets be worth in that environment?

This is Alstry's last post for a while.

23 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 03, 2009 at 4:52 PM, InflationSilver (99.95) wrote:

This is Alstry's last post for a while.

 

For some reason, I doubt that...

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#2) On August 03, 2009 at 4:58 PM, toopersent (82.81) wrote:

This is Alstry's last post for a while.

 

YAY!  The recession is over!

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#3) On August 03, 2009 at 5:11 PM, alstry (36.00) wrote:

In case you are wondering....The Institute of Alstrynomics defines a while as 12 hours....and commenting is not defined as posting.

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#4) On August 03, 2009 at 5:17 PM, alstry (36.00) wrote:

Pulte Homes Q2 rev $678.6 mln vs $1.62 bln

Centex Q1 revenue $574 mln vs $1.13 bln

Not many are selling much these days as few can support such high interest payments with such low incomes.  EVEN WITH OIL PRICES CRASHING.  Guess what is going to happen now that oil prices are going back up.....look out below.  Welcome to Zombulation Nation as created by our Federal Reserve and Bankers.

Sacramento-area parents fear Healthy Families cuts

The number of uninsured children in California is expected to more than double in the coming year – to 1.4 million – because of budget cuts to the program, according to Children Now, a children's advocacy group.

LOOKS LIKE HOSPITALS ARE GOING TO BE LOSING A LOT OF REVENUES THIS UPCOMING YEAR.....A LOT OF DOCTORS AND NURSES ARE GOING TO BE FIRED DUE TO HOSPITALS BEING FORCED TO PAY OVER 30X THE INTEREST RATE AS WALL STREET BANKS......

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#5) On August 03, 2009 at 5:23 PM, toopersent (82.81) wrote:

High interest rates? 

My views are obviously skewed because I live in the Northern VA area, but Pulte homes is building like crazy around here and they have lots sold that won't even be delivered until summer of 2010!

The homebuilders don't recognize profit like you would expect, so natrually their sales are lagging.

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#6) On August 03, 2009 at 5:35 PM, alstry (36.00) wrote:

Homebuilders capitalize debt so you can't see that the interest payments is higher than the dollars they are generating over cost of building...many of the private homebuilders have gone out of business.....public homebuilders revenues are off 75-85% from a couple years ago....even after the competition has shut down......

In relation to our current population....the new home building business is the worst it has been in the past 100 years.....and getting worse as more and more builders go out of business.

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#7) On August 03, 2009 at 5:38 PM, Varchild2008 (84.23) wrote:

In relation to our current population....the new home building business is the worst it has been in the past 100 years.....and getting worse as more and more builders go out of business.

Hmm...Great!  I'll file an S corp. Building Company application in my State right away... This looks like a great business opportunity!  :-)

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#8) On August 03, 2009 at 5:43 PM, alstry (36.00) wrote:

Let's look at Centex for a second.  CTX used to be a builder that generated over $12 Billion in annual sales.  Now it is on track to sell about $2 Billion per year.

CTX has about $3.2 Billion in debt costing it about $200 million per year in interest alone.

Most builders right now are lucky to be clearing a 10% gross margin on the homes they build after selling expenses...most don't come close to that number in the current environment.

As you can see, even though CTX reported a "profit" today, it is not generating enough sales to cover the interest in its debt.  If this continues, CTX will go out of business unless it restructures its debt.

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#9) On August 03, 2009 at 5:50 PM, toopersent (82.81) wrote:

Well, Centex merged with Pulte and there is no way the largest homebuilder is going out of business.  Again, I speak for my area, but they have developments EVERYWHERE here and they can't sell their lots fast enough.  They aren't even offering free upgrades anymore because they don't need to offer them to sell units!  The also get the benefit of writing their own loans so they are making interest off your mortgage payment. 

Look at the numbers all you want, but you might want to examine the real world first hand.  

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#10) On August 03, 2009 at 5:53 PM, alstry (36.00) wrote:

SERIOUSLY, HOW DUMB DOES TIMMY THINK WE ARE???

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner doesn't see any need for more funds to bail out banks, and says a financial collapse is not going to happen.

No kidding.  Now that Wall Street can lever the $1 Trillion you gave them at 1/4% Ten to One......they can make a 3 1/2% spread by buying $10 Trillion worth of treasuries without ever having to loan the American people a dime ever again.

At the current borrowing level of government.....banks won't have to lend Americans a dime for the next three years and watch their income grow risk free.

Where do you think our nation will be at that point?

Why do you think Benny the B looks so nervous all the time....what do you think the American people are going to do once the find out what is going on??????

Or do you think an event might occur in the intrim to distract us?

9.09

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#11) On August 03, 2009 at 5:59 PM, alstry (36.00) wrote:

toop,

The numbers don't lie.  You may be in a unique area.  But right now, both CTX and PHM are not generating enough sales at high enough margins to cover the debt satisfactorily.  And that is after the competition has gone out of business. 

My guess is that they are selling entry level homes in your area which are inherently lower margin products.

The key thing to focus on right now is employment.  If jobs start growing, the outlook improves.  If wages start increasing, the outlook improves.

Right now the only thing I see is falling wages and higher unemployment....especially if health care cuts back and the government starts laying off due to falling tax receipts.

Unless debt is restructured, we are about to fall into the biggest depression in history.  The only thing uncertain is whether it will be a deflationary depression or inflationary depression.

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#12) On August 03, 2009 at 6:17 PM, alstry (36.00) wrote:

Without restructuring debt, we will likely see cuts like this spread across the nation:

BIRMINGHAM, Alabama (Reuters) - Alabama's debt-ridden Jefferson County laid off about two-thirds of its 3,600 employees on Monday because of plummeting revenues, a move that will sharply curtail services in areas ranging from roads to courthouses.

Imagine what the criminals are thinking??????????

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#13) On August 03, 2009 at 6:20 PM, bridgeboy0 (30.46) wrote:

When nothing happens to distract us between now and 9/9/09, please oh please tell us we won't have Alstry to kick around any more...

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#14) On August 03, 2009 at 6:20 PM, toopersent (82.81) wrote:

Well, I'm finding it very hard to find a house because they average house within 50 miles of here is on the market for 2 weeks or less before sold.  And these are NOT foreclosures or short sales.  There are a lot of first time home buyers buying $300-400,000 houses. 

Yes, the planned communities are mostly modest SFH and townhouses, usually ranging from $250-600,000.  But they are moving quick!

And we are actually seeing house flipping make a come back.  I've seen about 10 homes that I really liked but couldn't close on because the 90 day anti-flipping law got reinstanted last month and we're going FHA.

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#15) On August 03, 2009 at 6:31 PM, alstry (36.00) wrote:

I am not arguing with you, but if you look at the average selling prices for homes that CTX and PHM are moving...they must be giving away homes in the rest of the country....that is all.

But the cutting continues across the nation....

Families Plan to Rein in Back-to-School Spending

Cutting begets cutting...creating more cutting as you cut.....if you keep cutting, there is not much left to cut. 

How far can sales fall for a home builder if they were once selling over $12 Billion per year and now they are selling less tahn $2 Billion?  If you were an economist, you would be all excited because the sales decline would be stabilizing as only $2 Billion is left to before NO SALES!

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#16) On August 03, 2009 at 7:15 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

In case you are wondering....The Institute of Alstrynomics defines a while as 12 hours....and commenting is not defined as posting.

 Damn, I thought we were going to get a break because Alstry[nomics] finally realized it isn't always right.  In fact, calling the top in april turned out to be HORRIBLY WRONG, likely causing anyone who listened to that call to lose big.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=187819&t=01002130057764754273

If Alstry[nomics] was WRONG on calling the top, how can anyone believe he is right about anything else????????

 What a waste of time for those that are believing everything that Alstry[nomics] is spewing.  If I had the time to waste I'd spend it tearing down all that Alstry[nomics] represents.  For now I'll just pop in every once in a while a point out the failings of this non-stop assault on the good sensibilities of the fools here.

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#17) On August 03, 2009 at 8:50 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

Maybe we can enjoy a brief respite from the constant ranting while Alstry[nomics] finds a way to refute #16

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#18) On August 03, 2009 at 9:03 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

i'll refute #16..just because he missed the top in april..doesn't mean his theories are wrong..it just means his timing was...

alstry for the past few months has put in a lot of hard work to post truth after truth in  a world that leads us to believe the opposite...most all of his dailly "rants" are based on news facts backed up by supported data and theories of most logical outcomes given the truth of the situation confronting america 

 

im not here to kiss alstry's ass but some of you sure will when he turns out to be right and all of you are holding your pecker's in your hand b/c you were thinking "how can anyone believe he is right about anything else..when Alsty{nomics} was WRONG on calling the top"

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#19) On August 03, 2009 at 9:45 PM, toopersent (82.81) wrote:

alstry for the past few months has put in a lot of hard work to post truth after truth in  a world that leads us to believe the opposite...most all of his dailly "rants" are based on news facts backed up by supported data and theories of most logical outcomes given the truth of the situation confronting america

 

you do realize the irony in this statement.... Alstry comes to spit the truth and knowledg because the media is lying to us, and he backs up his cliams using sources from....gasp....the MEDIA!  Oh the horrible funny irony!

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#20) On August 04, 2009 at 1:41 AM, aqua2 (< 20) wrote:

Toopersent,

Hmmmm, we send trillions to DC and northern VA has a housing boom.  Man its getting close to tar and feathers time.

Here in the midwest, new housing is in the dumps, when I do see a house being built have had the urge to stop and take a photo, you know, something you dont see everyday anymore at least around here. There are 4 Centex developments within 6 miles of here, one only has models built, the other 3 have anywhere from 12-20 homes built.  These are multi-hundred home developments!

Alstry- keep up the good work, get the word out, have felt much like you going all the way back to the early 90's.  Even then could not believe that good was going to come of lenders lending to anyone with a pulse. 

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#21) On August 04, 2009 at 9:04 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

#18 - LOL.  It's a good thing I didn't pay heed to his call in April.  Did you act on that call?  Fools here know how bad it is.  We don't need the media frenzy that Alstry provides to know how bad it is.  Fools here are also looking for a decent forum here that might help them to weather this storm.  Calling the top in April would have hurt many had they acted on that rant.  Obviously, Alstry didn't act on his own call either.

Another thing to understand is that Alstry has said several times that HE HOPES HE IS WRONG.  So then the fact that I pointed out how wrong he was on calling the top should be embraced by Alstry[nomics] as good news...

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#22) On August 04, 2009 at 10:54 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

Because Alstry[nomics] is all about being right, I won't expect Alstry[nomics] to even acknowledge the fact that Alstry[nomics] was wrong.  This is a typical behaviour for Alstry[nomics].  Many of Alstry[nomics] blogs contain unanswered questions from sincere fools -  unanswered because Alstry[nomics] had moved on to another rant... ignoring those that wanted to engage in dialog. 

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#23) On August 04, 2009 at 12:04 PM, carcassgrinder (41.21) wrote:

Aqua2....Agreed.

It never ceases to amaze me how oblivious norhtern VA and DC area residents are about the rest of the country.  I often use the same arguement that it should be no big suprise that the center for tax reciepts and corporate lobbying seems to have a small bubble economy that is able to endure when the rest of the country is suffering.  The bigger joke here is that these idiots are still being conned into paying 250k-600k for a piece of crap home.   

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