alstry (35.49)

The Flawed Logic of calling Karl Denninger Silly......

June 11, 2009 – Comments (3)

A Fool which we shall not name to maintain civility stated the following:

On to my criticism of the "Downturn Moderating? More LIES!" post.  Here's the main part that I have a problem with:

The state's [California] revenues from personal income taxes tumbled by 39.3 percent in May from a year earlier while revenues from corporate taxes fell by 52.1 percent and revenues from sales taxes sagged by 7.6 percent, according to a report released by Chiang's office.

The bold part is the important one.

Then the Blogger goes on to state the following:

California is a huge state with a huge economy that's bigger than the economies of many entire countries.  It is very important to the United States, but it is not representative of the entire U.S.  It is an extreme example of what is happening.  It was one of areas that was hit the hardest by the housing bubble.  One cannot look at the sales tax revenue for the area of the country that is by far in the worst shape and then just assume that it is indicative of what is happening everywhere else.

OH REALLY.....WHY NOT IF IT IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENTIRE NATION AND ANYBODY WITH A PULSE OR KNOWS KARL KNOWS IT??????

FROM THE ROCKEFELLER INSTITUTE:

Total tax revenue[2009 VS 2008] declined in 45 of 47 early reporting states.

We expect revenue collections, particularly collections from the

personal income tax, to deteriorate even further in the April-June

quarter based in large part on declines in financial markets and income

tax returns due in April.....

The Rockefeller Institute’s compilation of data from individual

states shows collections from major tax sources were $134.6 billion

in the first quarter of 2009 compared to $154 billion in the same

quarter of 2008. Personal income tax declines represented a $10.1

billion loss for the period. Overall tax revenue declined by 12.6

percent in nominal terms. The corporate income tax had the

sharpest decline at 16.2 percent, followed by personal income tax

and sales tax at 15.8 and 7.6 percent, respectively. After adjusting

for inflation, overall tax revenues declined by 14 percent in the

first quarter compared to the same quarter of 2008.

WOW....NOT REPRESENTATIVE???  EXTREME EXAMPLE???.....CA'S DECLINE MATCHED THE NATION'S EXACTLY!!!!!!  EXACTLY TO THE TENTH OF A POINT!!!!!!!

MY GUESS IS THAT THIS BLOGGER DIDN'T DO HIS RESEARCH, HAD NO KNOWLEDGE OF THE TALENT OF KARL DENNINGER, AND QUITE POSSIBLY MAY BE DRINKING TOO MUCH CHEAP BEER OR LITTLE KNOWLEDGE OF BASEBALL SKILLS AS REPRESENTED BY THE FOLLOWING:

Doing so would be like only scouting the absolute worst player on a sports team and then assuming that the entire team stinks.  Or drinking a Milwaukee's Best aka Beast Light and assuming that all beer sucks.  One cannot reasonably assume that sales tax revenue is down by nearly 8.0% nationally just because that is the case in one of the areas that is in the worst shape.

NEXT TIME THIS BLOGGER CALLS ANOTHER SILLY.....MAYBE HE SHOULD DO HIS HOMEWORK FIRST!!!!!!