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alstry (36.32)

The Fools Just Don't Get Zombulation

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October 07, 2009 – Comments (29)

Alstry started the Institute of Alstrynomics....it is where Zombulation was discovered and the effect of Concentric Contraction.  In practical application, Zombulation to our economy is not much different than Pancreatic Cancer is to our biology.

Pancreatic Cancer is so lethal because it spreads with relatively benign symptoms, and once the symptoms are eventually noticed, the disease has spread so far that it is generally too late to abate or avoid its consequences.  Along the way, as the disease spreads, healthy cells are sequentially destroyed until the body simply can't function anymore.

Zombulation is not too much different, the due to massive leverage burdening the system, debts start defaulting and banks can no longer lend as those that need to borrow can't qualify and those that qualify have no need to borrow.  Since accumulated debt is many times greater than savings, as revenues evaporate from a lack of credit being extended, it is impossible to pay back the debt without extinguishing our entire savings base...eventually, even healthy citizens and businesses are destroyed due to lack of revenues.

The banking system acts as the Zombulator sucking the cash flow of the nation into its vaults to service the debt, but not letting any money out in the form of credit.  As money goes in and little flows out, the revenues to the nation evaporates as savings is drawn down and businesses and families financially fail.  Slowly at first the then the pace picks up as more and more get Zombulated running out of savings and fewer and fewer can spend.

What Alstrynomics has been doing is documenting the symptoms with thousands of posts providing evidence of the spread of the disease......and warning of the eventual outcome.  NEVER have I represesented it is the end of the world....simply the end of an economy as we know it.

For ten years, practically our entire economy has morphed into one supported directly or indirectly by DOMESTIC leveraged consumerism....my guess is 70-90% of our GDP is dependent on consumerism to generate revenues.....without it most of us wouldn't have jobs due to lack of revenues.  Just look around you, it is not hard to see.  This process was funded by Wall Street and our banking system and they knew it.

What makes America diffferent than other countries is our own consumer drove our economy through LEVERAGE, not income.... and income for many Americans was a byproduct of leverage by other Americans....in other nations, their domestic consumption was fueled by producing and selling to other nations...especially ours benefitting from our leverage.  Now they have savings and we are broke......basically, America and the Americans became welfare recipients of the American bankers and the bankers of the World......and soon the bankers may cut us off as the dollar loses its reserve status and we all get Zombulated and they get bailed out.

In the early sixties, Detroit was a very prosperous town...but as revenues evaporated, the town started to deteriorate.  The demise was very slow at the beginning but started to accelerate as sales slowed...now we can Feel what many failed to notice as the change was taking place.

America is really not too different than Detroit....basically Detroit was a one market town...the Automobile industry.....and when its industry deteriorated, so did the town.  America is primarily a single market economy as well, its domestic consumer....and much of that consumption was based on credit.......and when you cut off credit to the consumer, the economy will deteriorate, and so will the nation as revenues keep declining and declining.

We are now at the point where revenues have slowed so much that governments and health care systems are forced to slash....this is the point where you not only know about the disease, but will FEEL the symtoms.  The banking system is simply sucking out the cash flow of the nation and little is being replaced through the process known as Zombulation.  As money evaporates, just like cells dying faster than new ones being regenerated, eventually the system fails.

NY Gov. Paterson - Orders State Agencies to Cut Spending by 11%

Just ask yourself, if America doesn't have a leveraged consumer to sell to........what is our economy????  Insurance, Banking, Health Care, Government, Housing, Retail??????  Do you think it is any different than Detroit and automobiles?  Again it is not the end of the world, just the end of a world as you know it.....Detroit is still selling millions of cars per year and has a number of different industries still functioning in its town.

Unless we restructure debt soon, the banks will suck most of the money out of the eocnomy and all of America will be like Detroit.......not a big deal....just a new way of life until we find a replacement......which I am confident we will in at least 10 or 20 years.

So keep bashing Alstrynomics, that is why I call you the Alstrybaters......in the end, you are simply bashing yourself unless you start to address the disease of Zombulation.

Seriously, how hard do you think Wall Street is laughing right now at the billions we just gave them for overleveraging our economy and they shut our economy down??????

29 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 07, 2009 at 9:27 AM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

Zombies eat brains, lol.

 

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#2) On October 07, 2009 at 9:29 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Yes...Wall Street is laughing hard as America keeps shutting down due to a lack of revenues.....and since we are primarily a leveraged consumer economy....if we have few consumers making money, we will not have much of an economy......

City of Hickory - 90 Early Buyouts / Layoffs

Lubbock - 62

City of Saratoga Springs - 50?

School District U46 - Layoffs?

Blue Cross Blue Shield of Florida - 150

Aer Lingus Airlines - up to 650 

City of Bend - 6

Minneapolis - 27 Firefighter Jobs cuts possible 

Manteca Police Department - 16 Possible Layoffs

America's economy is not structured for concentrated wealth.....Social Security and Medicare depends on a high employment rate to function......even more so as our population ages......and Government/Medicare/Medicaid is responsible for over half of heath care spend...especially if you include government workers and their spend through government insurance.

Without high employment rates....forget health care "reform," we won't have much health care at all!!!!!!

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#3) On October 07, 2009 at 9:42 AM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

Oh, we got. I know I've had it up to here. Hang it up, pal. You have annoyed and inaccurately predicted (09/09) your way into being a joke. This is a shame because you make some good points now and again.

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#4) On October 07, 2009 at 9:47 AM, StopLaughing (< 20) wrote:

Actually we do get zombulation, but we are looking at all of the evidence. Right now we are focused on the earnings reports to see how much the actual revenues are down and if there is enough buying to sustain the economy. We are looking at savings rates, purchasing power and buying to determine the current economy is a viable model going forward.

Keep in mind the Dems want to remake America into Europe. Europe has averaged about 9 % unemployment for about 4 decades. That means more socialism and slower growth but it does not mean the end of the world. 

Further, most of the states that are in trouble are the big liberal welfare states of the NE and W Coast. They have raise state and local taxes again and the rich are moving to TX, and FL and other states where there are no income taxes. 

These are adjustments not the end of the financial world. 

The $ is weaker but it is still stronger than it was at one time under Bush. If it breaks the Bush support line (low) then we are in uncharted waters. That is about  8 more % down. 

Gold appears to have broken out on the upside. We will see if it follows thru. That is new territory but many also expected gold to at least get to $1200. 

The current economy is in transition. Some sectors have deflationary pressures, some have inflationary pressures. 

We are also looking at the export flows. The weaker $ is changing those globally to some extent. 

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#5) On October 07, 2009 at 9:47 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

9.09 has arrived.....and you should know...and if you don't you will now Feel....just like patients diagnosed with cancer.....again not a big deal.....simply a failure of your willingness to accept your conditions.

You staring at the ticker is like a cancer patient looking at an EKG....but the time the disease affects the EKG......it is too late my friend.

Look around you, the syptoms are everywhere....it is just a matter of time.......

City of Fayetteville - 6 

Caterpillars Lafayette Plant - 106

Contra Costa County - Budget Shortfall, Layoffs Resulting?

Kent County Michigan - 145 Layoffs Proposed 

Boise Cascade 120 Layoffs Last Week, Impacts Local Community Hard

ABC News Radio - 20?

City of Taft - Several Layoffs 

Fisher Controls - 79

British Airways - 1,700

Update: Clark County Considers - 171 Layoffs

Update: Allied Tech Systems - Layoffs Today

NASA Contractor Laying off 550 Engineers 

Conde Nest - 180 Layoffs from Magazine Closures, More Coming?

Merced College - 15?

Cargotec ( International ) - 500 more?

AbitibiBowater Alabama - 90

Raute ( International ) - 135

State of Louisiana - Hundreds of Layoffs Possible

Atlantic City Trims 1,000 Seasonal Jobs in Sept. 

The Zoo Gallery Store at Destin Commons

Delphi Corporation Closing Clinton Plant by Dec 31, 280 Layoffs

Gianni Versace Spa ( International ) Closing Japan Stores

Crown House Hallmark in Sterling 

Sunoco Inc to Idle New Jersey Refinery 

Thermo Fisher Scientific Cease Operation at its Dubuque Plant  - 350 Layoffs

Sukon's Kids Furniture in Ozone Park 

Hilton Reservations in Hazleton

Guidos Tailor Store

The Rosebud Theatre in Effingham 

Aaron Brothers Art and Framing

Coastal Gallery in Carmel

Strouse's Department Store

Cavanaugh's Furniture in Reno 

Dillards in Sarasota 

Stafford's Motorsports

Kasch's Garden Center

Spanish American Union

Jekyll Island Gas Station Closing

Pyle's Home and Supply Store

Update: County Caboose closing

Spa City Cupcakes in Saratoga

Ferguson Enterprises Closing North Portland Office - 93 Layoffs

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#6) On October 07, 2009 at 9:59 AM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

I just read the "Jekyll Island Gas Station Closing" story. You should feel some sense of shame for using this a proof of a deeping recession. The station is closing and is going to replaced with a new one. A NEW ONE! This is an inconvenience for visitors and residence, not a disaster.

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#7) On October 07, 2009 at 10:04 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

" and all of America will be like Detroit.......not a big deal.."

LOL

Care to put an estimate on when this will happen?  Soon?!?!!?  Soooooon we will know..... Soooooon we will feel.....

Well, "soon" is not a good enough answer, especially with how horribly wrong you've been on your projections. 

Everything you blog about now is the same theme as was back in March and probably further back - I feel for those that were reeled in by your bait.  Especially those who may have acted on your miserable top call at 8300.

You are the only one that seems to realize this so called "MOAP" came to pass.  There is not one single other Fool here that agrees with you that "MOAP" ever occured.  Not one.    

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#8) On October 07, 2009 at 10:06 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

It is not proof, simply a piece of evidence among many pieces.....each piece is like a snow flake....as snow flakes fall they become more visible, if enough snow flakes fall at the same time, it becomes a snow storm, as the snow flakes pile up you really begin to see and feel it, and when they snow breaks, it becomes and avalanche......

right now you should see and feel the snow flakes accumulating......if the snow keeps falling.........prepare to ski really fast.

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#9) On October 07, 2009 at 10:11 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

JD,


Alstry is the Doctor of Alstrynomics...just because I can see the disease and you can't is simply evidence of your limitations in the area of Alstrynomics......don't take it too hard, you are simply not aware of your condition.

You will be, be patient.....as I am the doctor and am confident of my diagnosis of your condition.....you have Zombulitis, most of us do as Americans.......and now many of us know and feel it......you will too.

Again, don't be too hard on yourself.....I promise it will become clear to you.

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#10) On October 07, 2009 at 10:18 AM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

Alstry, the station, an old one, is going to be torn down and replaced with a NEW ONE! Oden's beard! How do you not vomit spiders after suggesting this is a snow flake of evidence of a worsening situation. A new station is being built which is progress! When the station is built everyone involved in the process from parts manufacturers to contruction workers will benefit. Afterwards the station owner will have a modern efficient facility that will better serve him, the community and visitors. This kind of thing actually motivates growth and provides jobs.

 

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#11) On October 07, 2009 at 10:18 AM, MikeBobulinski (< 20) wrote:

I found something that I was right about...

I was correct in my estimation that Alstry would not, could not stop blogging despite his own ultimatum that he would should MOAP not happen.

At what point do you admit you are wrong and get over your message.

We get your point, already.  The economy sucks and is not going to improve anytime soon.  This was true a year or more ago and despite the green shoots thing going away in the media, despite the current run up in the market, we all know that not everything is right in the economic world.

You continue to pound this board with your rants about zombulation and yet you fail to realize that you are just like every other investor out there that thinks he can call the market.  You predicted a bottom that never materialized (something along the lines of DOW 2000 by the end of summer), then you predicted another bottom or something along the lines of a major sell off with your MOAP, and you failed at calling the tops as well saying things like we would never see...pick a number.

Face it Alstry, while you do bring some interesting things to light (if we sift through all of the chaff), you have a tendency to over-dramatize things and sensationalize your own predictions in many cases making yourself no better than the media that you berate or the Fools that you would put down for not jumping on your bandwagon.

We get it...things are bad.  Move on, already. 

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#12) On October 07, 2009 at 10:19 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Revenue fell 19 percent, to $422.6 million, down from $522.8 million a year earlier. The company said a stronger dollar reduced sales by about one percentage point. Analysts forecast an average revenue of $404.6 million.

Shares of the Acuity rose $3.50, or 10.8 percent, to $35.99 in morning trading.

YIPEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

jUST $400 MILLION TO GO BEFORE NO SALES!!!!!!  THINK HOW PROFITABLE THEY WILL BE THEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#13) On October 07, 2009 at 10:24 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Alstrybaters,

If you don't like the diagnosis, stop reading the blog.....it is not that difficult.  Last time I checked, we are still a free nation....move on.

My score is in the top 1% of players depiste losing more points than most of the Alstrybaters COMBINED.

Do you Fools go to restaurants where you hate the food.......it doesn't mean the business shuts down just because you don't frequent.  If you don't like the message, exercise your free will and go someplace else......

But if you choose to stay, you are more than welcome as Alstry is a strong proponent of free speech.

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#14) On October 07, 2009 at 10:33 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

This is funny:

Consumer credit likely to fall for 7th month

American Express president to get millions

 

Hurry, get your bonuses before we shut down the economy!!!!!!

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#15) On October 07, 2009 at 10:43 AM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

Alstry, free speech is not protected by noise ordinance laws. You are the low bass throwing tuner car that everyone hates to be near in traffic. You buzz. You hum. You cause our rear view mirrors to vibrate. You have objectionable language pouring from the cabin. Occasionally words like overleverage, tax increases, foreclosures on the rise catch our attention. Soon they are rendered null and void when others like Prepare, Altradamus, Zombulator, Detroit. The same result happens when any referrence to yourself in the third person or any word followed by a chorus line of exclaimation points passes our eyes.

 

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#16) On October 07, 2009 at 10:49 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Why don't you become a better CAPS player so I can respect your investment analysis at least a little.....

At this point, you are simply whining without much evidence of talent....so how do you expect me to respect you very much.

I have been in a six month slump and my score is still in the top 1%.

Let's see where things go in the next six months.....investing is a process, not a snap shot of time.....and right  now my process puts me in the top 1% of CAPS players.

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#17) On October 07, 2009 at 10:57 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

I just did a cursory check of your listing and have concluded that you're not really researching anything here:

Guidos Tailor Store - Guido is retiring after 50 years...

Cavanaugh's Furniture in Reno  -  six part-time employees and one full-time employee

Thermo Fisher Scientific Cease Operation at its Dubuque Plant  - 350 Layoffs >> not starting until 2010 and completing 9/2010

Gianni Versace Spa ( International ) Closing Japan Stores > Ummm, what the hell does this have to do with the US economy?

The Zoo Gallery Store at Destin Commons   >> Read the last paragraph... it's not as hellish as you try to make it out to be...

Atlantic City Trims 1,000 Seasonal Jobs in Sept. > SEASONAL JOBS...

Raute ( International ) - 135 > Finland?!?!?

Cargotec ( International ) - 500 more? > Also Finland/Sweden

You're not even looking at the stuff you're regurgitating... another credibility thumbs down Alstry

I choose to stay in the hopes of preventing anyone from falling prey to your ridiculous assertions - if I can just stop one person from selling all of their holdings because you called the top at 8300 in April... then I have succeeded in my goal (admittedly it's too late, and I offer my sympathy to any of those who followed Alstry's call)... OR, if I can tip the scales just one tiny bit from the lopsided view that you present, then the 5 or 10 minutes I waste a week on your blogs will have been worth it.

That part where you've not kept your word about dematerializing - disgusting... and a sure sign of the narcissism that invades your soul.

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#18) On October 07, 2009 at 10:59 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

You spend much more than 5 or 10 minutes...simply just reading the above........

Now why don't you discuss the dozens of other listings?????

:)

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#19) On October 07, 2009 at 11:17 AM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

Alstry:

You have 177 active picks + 254 ended picks for a total of 431 picks. You have an averge pick score of 7.11.

I have 37 active picks + 23 ended picks for a total for 60 picks. I have an average pick score of 8.37.

You do have a really good accuracy percentage but I best you in my average pick score with 1/5 as many in hand. I am playing the game differenlty than most, making the best score possible with the fewest picks. I plan to never have more than 40 in play at any time as opposed to those that pump up their number with 100+.

I thought you were better than to play the "My CAPS score is better than yours" card. Some people wear their CAPS score like rank. You seem to be doing this to. In response I must say that I you might be higher ranking but there is nothing superior about you to me. 

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#20) On October 07, 2009 at 11:21 AM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

# 18 - Because that island is part of my home turf so it caught my eye. Plus I don't have time to read every link. I cherry pick what I read just as you do with what you post.

 

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#21) On October 07, 2009 at 11:30 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

May I suggest you pick a few more cherries,,,,you might taste a different flavor than the Kool Aid you are drinking now!!!!!

Phoenix Office Vacancies Tie 17 Year High at 24.2%

Reedley hospital to file for bankruptcy

Central Valley bankruptcy filings jump 83%

VERY FEW CAN ESCAPE THE ZOMBULATOR!!!!!!!!

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#22) On October 07, 2009 at 11:33 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

cato,

my score is what it is AFTER LOSING over 10X more points than you have managed to accumulate.....think about that for a second as you focus on this snap shot in time.....

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#23) On October 07, 2009 at 11:40 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

Your score matters not.  Did you sell all of your real stocks when you called that ridiculous top in April?   Or have you been sitting out of the market holding on to your precious metals and savings account? 

You won't say will you?   I thought not.  You should put your real life where your mouth is.  My hope is that Fools here are not "doing as you say" because that will hurt them financially in the long run, no matter how the economy turns.

This is in investing web site, not a "let's see how much bad news I can find and paste it here while making wild commentary and trolling.." web site.

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#24) On October 07, 2009 at 11:46 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

I started blogging when the market was around 14,000 and warning people to prepare.....now the market is around 10,000.....

The past six months have not been favorable to my perspective to be charitable.....but to be fair, I have been blogging a lot longer than six months as my score reflects it......

Now I am not sure about your fixation with the past six months......but we have another six months ahead of us.....hopefully.

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#25) On October 07, 2009 at 11:51 AM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

my score is what it is AFTER LOSING over 10X more points than you have managed to accumulate.....

There you go again. You play the CAPS score card like it means something. I already made my point. If that is the best you can do I will move on.

BTW: Please note you only have FOUR recommendations for this blog.

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#26) On October 07, 2009 at 11:55 AM, booyahh (< 20) wrote:

my score is what it is AFTER LOSING over 10X more points than you have managed to accumulate

In other words, recently you have been massively wrong , and you totally missed the rally, and freaked out others into missing it as well. Well done.

What happened to Dow 5000 by the end of the summer? Oh, you were off by just a bit.  What happened to 9.09 ? This september the market went up. Oh you were off again.

Give it up - you missed the largest rally since 1930.

Even if many of us lose 20% when the correction occurs, you missed the 50% rally.

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#27) On October 07, 2009 at 12:00 PM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

What if you lose 90%??????????????????????????????

Just what if????????????????????????????????????????

It is not the end of the world.

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#28) On October 07, 2009 at 12:11 PM, clanza875 (34.02) wrote:

If anyone actually put money into Altry's predictions they would be insolvent by now despite the score.

 Whatever happened to your tag, alstry is all about being right? (or something like that)

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#29) On October 07, 2009 at 12:35 PM, AvianFlu (21.31) wrote:

Alstry haters:

I don't think you get it. Alstry is a comedian. Look at some of his words:
"Alstry is the Doctor of Alstrynomics...you have Zombulitis,"

When you get mad at him it just gives him pleasure. He is like Groucho Marx in "Night at the Opera" who loves to annoy the pompous society types that go to the opera.

So you get madder and he gets happier, thus making him want to post more.

I suggest you lighten up and go with the flow. I find his posts very enjoyable...kind of like watching the movie Armageddon in slow motion. I will admit to being a little disappointed when I don't see one of his posts on the home page. And yes, sometimes I find interesting links. Cato: you are right. He is not checking out his links before posting. Pretty sloppy for a lawyer. Alstry: watch it with the links!

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