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FoxForce5contest (35.53)

The FoxForceJournal.

Recs

8

February 20, 2013 – Comments (20) | RELATED TICKERS: CG

Greetings, and welcome to yet another edition of The FoxForceJournal.

Our featured stock is the CaryleGroup,LP. Picked by our esteemed CFO, and my good friend blesto. The stock has been on an absolute tear since his start price on 8/20/12 of $25.34 based on Caps.      Leading to an impressive +44.71% stock gain in the contest.

I also happen to know, that as of 2/5/13 his own personal portfolio consisted of 12.2% in CG,And I'm pretty sure its higher now! (a round of applause floods the gallery).

ABOUT CARYLE- (from the website)

“Our purpose is to invest wisely and create value on behalf of an array of global investors, many of whom are public pensioners. We work for our investors.” Bill Conway, Chief Investment Officer About Carlyle - Overview

The Carlyle Group is a global alternative asset manager with more than $157 billion in assets under management across 101 funds and 64 fund of funds vehicles. Founded in 1987 in Washington, DC, Carlyle has grown into one of the world’s largest and most successful investment firms, with more than 1,300 professionals operating in 32 offices in North America, South America, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Japan, Asia and Australia.

We Work For Our Investors
More than 1,400 investors from 75 countries rely on Carlyle to achieve premium returns on their invested capital. Our investors range from public and private pension funds to wealthy individuals and families to sovereign wealth funds, unions and corporations. Through an array of products and geographic specific-funds, we work to meet the dynamic needs of the world’s most sophisticated investors.

Four Business Segments

Corporate Private Equity – buyout and growth capital Real Assets – real estate, infrastructure and energy and renewable resources Global Market Strategies – distressed and corporate opportunities, corporate mezzanine, energy mezzanine, hedge funds and structured credit Fund of Funds Solutions – private equity fund of funds program and related co-investment and secondary activities

Carlyle Creates Value

Carlyle uses its One Carlyle global network, deep industry knowledge, Executive Operations Group and portfolio intelligence to create and execute a customized value creation plan for each of our corporate private equity and real asset investments.

Reach - One Carlyle Global Network

More than 600 investment professionals on six continents with local knowledge and relationships Our professionals work together across funds, industries and geographies to help colleagues

Expertise - Deep Industry Knowledge

Invest in sectors we know, and value depth over breadth Sectors of focus: aerospace, defense & government services, consumer & retail, energy & power, financial services, healthcare, industrial, infrastructure, real estate, technology & business services, telecommunications & media and transportation

Impact - Executive Operations Group

28-person team of Operating Executives - C-Level executives and sector specialists with an average of over 40 years' experience each Advise Carlyle professionals through the investment process, from sourcing deals, conducting diligence, managing companies and exiting transactions

Data - Portfolio Intelligence

Global portfolio of more than 200 companies and more than 250 active real estate investments as of September 30, 2012 generates real-time, actionable data Incorporate proprietary analysis of data into investment, operational and exit decisions

 CALCULATION ON THE DIVIDEND FROM YAHOO (finally, we get a divi payer).

$1,000 purchased 39.2 shares on 8/20/12 @$25.50

On 11/15/12 CG paid out a .16 divi paying out $6.3 putting the initial investment at $994.7

Share price as of today puts the value of shares worth $1437.46 (note this does not factor in reinvested dividends)

Now Scruffys 40,000 shrs are worth- 1,020,000 start.

163,200 in dividends.

So todays total $1,630,000.

Sorry if I screwed up any of the math but I have a tasty burger that needs attending to.

Cheers,

And keep an eye out for the next-

The FoxForceJournal.

20 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 20, 2013 at 11:21 PM, FoxForce5contest (35.53) wrote:

http://youtu.be/yBp735pezGg

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#2) On February 20, 2013 at 11:34 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.71) wrote:

Make sure to check out blesto's midweek update on the Randomness board-

http://boards.fool.com/cupid-let-down-ff5c-midweek-update-30553224.aspx?result=ReplySubmitted

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#3) On February 20, 2013 at 11:54 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.71) wrote:

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#4) On February 21, 2013 at 3:45 AM, blesto (31.59) wrote:

 (finally, we get a divi payer).

Distributions my friend, distributions. They're a limited partnership. And so far I like being one of their limited partners.

Today is the Carlyle Group Fourth Quarter 2012 Results Conference Call

http://ir.carlyle.com/events.cfm

Looking forward to it.

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#5) On February 21, 2013 at 9:49 AM, Mary953 (75.30) wrote:

Did not even know there was a board devoted to this,  Thanks for the heads up, Harry!

RAX is still falling.  I have a long-term position in RAX cloud computing, but have hedged it with AMZN.  Watching now to see which company will end up riding the cloud into the stratosphere.  Since I am waiting out the cloud, I might as well hold down the almost last place in the contest.  At this rate, I expect to overtake the last two below me within the week.  Someone has to be the anti-Bravo, right?  (I have very small positions on a couple of Bravo's picks in real life - with stops and with money I can afford to lose.  Guess which stocks are actually my best gainers at the moment?  Love it!)   You all are the best!  

Mary   =D 

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#6) On February 21, 2013 at 10:02 AM, Mary953 (75.30) wrote:

And since I forgot to add this part, Blesto, you're stock is absolutely incredible.  Consider me highly impressed!

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#7) On February 21, 2013 at 10:21 AM, Mega (99.97) wrote:

Harry, you're doing a great job with all these contest writeups, thanks.

blesto, why did you choose Carlyle over Apollo, KKR and Blackstone? Low market cap compared to AUM?

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#8) On February 21, 2013 at 11:57 AM, Mega (99.97) wrote:

My overly simplistic back of napkin valuation method. 

Ticker        TBV     AUM     TBV + 1.5% of AUM    Market Cap
CG           $0.7B   $157B            $3.1B                    $1.5B 
APO         $2.5B   $101B            $4B                       $2.9B
KKR         $1.9B    $76B             $3B                       $4.2B
BX            $5.8B   $210B            $9B                       $9.7B

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#9) On February 21, 2013 at 12:03 PM, Mega (99.97) wrote:

Also, glancing at the balance sheets KKR and CG appear more leveraged than APO and BX.

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#10) On February 21, 2013 at 12:43 PM, Mega (99.97) wrote:

Carlyle down today on weaker than expected earnings.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/21/carlyle-results-idUSL1N0BL1UA20130221 

"This translates to ENI per adjusted unit of 47 cents versus an average forecast of 69 cents by analysts in a Thomson Reuters poll. Blackstone, KKR and Apollo all significantly beat analysts' fourth-quarter earnings expectations."

Attributed partly to a cautious approach to refinancing portfolio investments and booking profits.

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#11) On February 21, 2013 at 7:30 PM, blesto (31.59) wrote:

 Megashort said, "blesto, why did you choose Carlyle over Apollo, KKR and Blackstone? Low market cap compared to AUM?"

Kinda sorta yes. When I discovered their IPO, I just was interested in looking into them, and the more I looked the more I liked.

More of my thoughts and erratic ramblings here;http://boards.fool.com/the-carlyle-group-lp-cg-120533.aspx?mid=30132738

They IPO'd about the same time as Facebook and were sorta under most people's radar.

They make a distribution of $0.16 per unit share every quarter with a catchup distribution in the 4th quarter. This being their 1st, 4th quarter distribution and it's $0.85 per unit share. :-)

I've glanced at KKR, Apollo, BX but I never felt the need to dig in further.

In my humble and amateur opinion, I believe the unit share price will easily go over $40 and maybe trade in a range there while more people figure them out.

One thing I like is that the "Investment Professionals" of each of the funds receive as part of their performance fees, Unitshares of Carlyle. I think this aligns them nicely with my interests more and more, year after year.
 http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-UYH8V/2158110207x0x578284/78a9d61e-4760-4c5e-80df-0aa883f15c4d/2012_Carlyle%20Financial%20Statements.pdf  See page 9

Mary, thankyou for the kind words. I'm glad I can impress someone. I know my CAPS score is way far from impressive. ;-)

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#12) On February 21, 2013 at 7:31 PM, Mega (99.97) wrote:

http://dealbreaker.com/2013/02/investors-failing-to-understand-that-you-cant-evaluate-carlyle-like-other-public-companies/

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#13) On February 21, 2013 at 9:23 PM, Mega (99.97) wrote:

More alternative asset managers 

Ticker        TBV     AUM     TBV + 1.5% of AUM    Market Cap
FIG           $0.5B   $52B            $1.3B                        $3.1B
OZM         -$0.4B  $33B            $0.1B                        $3.7B
OAK          $0.7B*  $77B            $1.9B                        $7.4B
ACAS        $5.4B   $12B            $5.6B                        $4.4B

*I added in Oaktree's stake in DoubleLine.

OAK are great investors but I'm not a buyer. Of these only ACAS looks interesting to me. 

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#14) On February 21, 2013 at 11:17 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.71) wrote:

Mega could you do me a favor ,and add MTGE to your list.

It might not be profiled this week or perhaps another month, but it's trying Ringo, it's trying reallll hard.

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#15) On February 22, 2013 at 9:47 AM, Mega (99.97) wrote:

Sorry Harry, MTGE doesn't belong on this list. Unlike the companies above, they don't have any outside assets under management.

Or were you saying I should put it on my watchlist? Thanks but I'm not particularly interested in mREITs. Don't see any edge there.

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#16) On February 23, 2013 at 11:20 PM, Starfirenv (< 20) wrote:

Harry,  some good things happening at LODE.  First pour late Sept '12 and hasn't stopped. Rec'd BLM approvals this week-  ck co. home page.  This could pan out for you.

Also, ck'd out CG.  VERY deep ties.  Wiki it and ck out their roster and cos. owned/controlled.  Wow. 

Enjoy this-  http://www.wimp.com/oldschool/

Best all, from the Silver State.

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#17) On February 23, 2013 at 11:27 PM, awallejr (81.20) wrote:

I am a personal owner of BX and ACAS as per this:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/acas-lots-of-room-to-grow/796917

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#18) On February 23, 2013 at 11:33 PM, awallejr (81.20) wrote:

Also keep an eye on FIG.  It is taking it longer to get where I thought it would be by now but still, a low price with growing dividend potential over time.

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#19) On February 23, 2013 at 11:34 PM, Starfirenv (< 20) wrote:

@ #16-  That's Little Richard, 4 yrs old.

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#20) On February 24, 2013 at 1:09 AM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.71) wrote:

@ #19 Awesome!

All the best from the most corrupt state ;)

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