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alstry (36.01)

The Government Crash......This One is Alstry BIG

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November 07, 2009 – Comments (8)

Health Care, Education, Cities, Counties and States

Oklahoma City sees an unprecedented decline in sales tax receipts

Sales Tax Receipts Show Worst Decline in Half a Century

Revenues drop in October

Government spend is about 50% of GDP....it affects everything.

Now revenues to government are evaporating at unprecedented rates........

We are just starting to see the cuts roll into health care, education, welfare, social security, and pension benefits........

Over Half of America is dependent on government spend directly or indirectly......the fallout will be UNPRECEDENTED as government was only responsible for a very small percentage of the economy going into The Great Depression.

With tax receipts crashing while running a $2 Trillion dollar deficit.....it seems like we are stuck between a rock and a hard spot....either keep spending what we don't have and destroy the dollar, or start cutting back and bring us to some sort of level ground.

With the release of the jobs report on Friday, the broadest measure of unemployment and underemployment tracked by the Labor Department has reached its highest level in decades. If statistics went back so far, the measure would almost certainly be at its highest level since the Great Depression.

In all, more than one out of every six workers — 17.5 percent — were unemployed or underemployed in October. The previous recorded high was 17.1 percent, in December 1982.

 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/07/business/economy/07econ.html?_r=1

Now  comes the fallout from the Government cutbacks....it could make the last crash look very mild in comparision.

Pfizer - Aiming for 30,900 Layoffs Through 2012

Teens Suffer Record Unemployment at 27.6% 

Laguna Honda & San Francisco General Hospital - 600 Layoff Notices

Puerto Rico - Eliminated 2,000 Civil Service Jobs

Update: Ameren - Job Cuts Grow to 300 

Regence BlueCross Blue Shield - 400

British Airlines - Post Huge Loss , 5,000 Job Cuts by Year End

Leviton Manufacturing Co. Inc - 100

Duke University - 400 so Far, More to Come?

AFTER this crash....Alstry becomes POSITIVE!!!!!!!!!!!  The issue is what will America look like after things settle out?

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 07, 2009 at 9:23 AM, alstry (36.01) wrote:

22,000,000 people work directly for government.....

Those people spend massively into the economy....

Government employment is a significant reason why we have such a strong service economy.......

They also receive government health insurance which supports our health care system....

With tax revenues falling at unprecedented rates....will we see an unprecedented fallout???

With financial support from the state uncertain, Topeka Unified School District 501 is considering drastic measures, including laying off employees and closing two or more elementary schools.

"This is the most severe financial situation I have ever witnessed," said board member Ned Nusbaum.

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#2) On November 07, 2009 at 9:43 AM, alstry (36.01) wrote:

Remember....we are facing these massive revenue shortfalls WHILE running a $2 Trillion deficit.

A $2 Trillion dollar DEFICIT!!!!!

When Government spend is 50% of GDP.....what happens to GDP if government can't spend?

INDIANAPOLIS — Indiana's school chief warned school superintendents Thursday that declining state revenues could force cuts in public education spending, education officials said.

We have over $50 Trillion of outstanding public and private debt.....as revenues decline, servicing that debt becomes impossible.  That debt is the asset base of many of our pension funds, insurance companies, and banks.

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#3) On November 07, 2009 at 9:52 AM, alasker (< 20) wrote:

and it will accelerate. my parents generation- the first post ww2 generation- is only starting to retire (maybe 2-3 years ago it started) on pensions and take social security. They are the major group of employees in the government. On the private end the number of people signing up for government benefits early will increase as layoffs increase. Up until now it was our grandparents who were collecting which was a lot of people- but not nearly as large as a population as their children. Plus our parents will be taking money out of the stock market as they reach the legal age for their 401K's and probably not putting much back in. if my generation does not have any money how are we going to buy my parent's generations stocks so they can retire?

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#4) On November 07, 2009 at 10:33 AM, alstry (36.01) wrote:

alas....

There are really two sectors to our economy, public and private and each contribute about half to GDP through spend and consume.

Our private sector is Real Estate plus Autos....and ALL the businesses that support these two industries, including finance and sales. 

Government is primarily health care, welfare, defense, and education.

Up until this year, government was able to pretty much function off of the tax receipts the private sector generated.  Now that the private sector has been pretty much gutted....we will now start to FEEL the fallout to the govenment sector.  The government sector is far more labor intensive and the fallout will be more tangible.

We are just starting to see massive cuts in education and health care.

Further, since most of the assets in America are real estate based, including trillions of outstanding debt....as real estate continues to crash in value....so will many of our financial institutions, pension funds, insurance companies, and municipalities.

 

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#5) On November 07, 2009 at 11:10 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

"AFTER this crash....Alstry becomes POSITIVE!!!!!!!!!!!  The issue is what will America look like after things settle out?"

Based on dubyanomics, which has been much more accurate than Alstrynomics, "this" crash won't be occuring until 2020 at the earliest.

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#6) On November 07, 2009 at 11:52 AM, bullnada (< 20) wrote:

Jdub,

You have no idea how bad you look. You are the one that said housing has bottomed.  If you dont like Al thats great. Go do your own blog. Oh yah you have and you have to put Alstrys name in the title to get recs.

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#7) On November 07, 2009 at 12:12 PM, Rasbold (91.48) wrote:

#6 Ha, Ha!

I gotta back Alstry on this;

"My D**K........nuff said; your D**K....rough spread!"

"Alstry...hard like the Chargers, the whole team, your ding look like you're fourteen!"

...housing bottom.....yeah, come to Cali, I'll show you a housing bottom. I'll put my house on the market, the realtors are like, "Are you serious??" or "You got like six digits to bring to the close?"

 

So many dingalings are just up and walking away, I'm DOWN over a hundred grand!! Another year of this and I'll be buying at 500 per acre!

Bring on the REAL crash; screw your mortgage company, bank the money, then pay cash for what you really want!

....and your Dow will never Jones!

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#8) On November 07, 2009 at 3:26 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

bullnada -

Exactly what did you do in March in April?  Did you take action on Alstry's top call at 8300?  Did you?  You must've.  You're commenting like you've been offended.

I said that housing bottomed!?!?!?  LOL... your anger is clouding your thought process.

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