Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

XMFSinchiruna (27.71)

The Greatest Turnaround Stories are Worth Waiting For

Recs

42

November 16, 2011 – Comments (28)

Although gold could launch to new highs without a moment's notice, and the associated mining shares are drastically overdue for a monster rally, as of mid-November my bullish call for Brigus Gold appears unlikely to bear fruit during 2011.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/11/16/the-greatest-turnaround-stories-are-worth-waiting.aspx

For ths long-term oriented Fool, all that means is I / we have had more time to amass shares at bargain prices before the stock's inevitable advance.

Without ever setting out to do so, I have developed something of a focus on pinpointing mining stocks that are deeply out of favor with the market and/or persistently overlooked, and that are poised for meaningful breakout momentum on the basis of key operational enhancements or specific looming catalysts. It is not my sole focus within the sector, but it has emerged as a pattern within my various investment theses over time. Since I was drawn to value investing well before I became active in the resource sector, this focus makes perfect sense for me.

The unavoidable corrollary to this focus is a difficulty in pinpointing the precise timing of when the market will begin to recognize and price-in the ongoing and/or looming improvements. To those who may have been counting on a quick 12-month gain from Brigus for 2011, I am sorry the stock has not cooperated thus far. Thankfully, my top pick for 2011 (AuRico) has delivered in a very timely and convincing way on the turnaround story that I identified there, and additional top picks NXG, CDE, and AUY have trounced both the S&P 500 and the GDX.

To those like me who maintain a strictly long-term outlook on the sector, I trust this bout of pronounced weakness across multiple precious metals mining stocks in recent months has afforded a terrific opportunity to get into position on some of the more compelling turnaround stories in advance of the next major run to the upside. There again, I can't say precisely when that breakout for gold is coming, but rest assured it is coming all the same.

I wish each and every one of you the utmost success in your precious metal investments, and I thank you for continuing to make this online investment community the greatest place in the world for investors to confer with fellow investors when selecting their preferred vehicles in the resource sector.

28 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 16, 2011 at 11:50 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.71) wrote:

Has anyone noticed how cheap Pilot Gold has become?

Remember, that's the same team that built Fronteer Gold from the ground-up. Pilot began as a spin-off from Newmont's purchase of Fronteer, and started out with a significant portfolio of projects. Have a look at Haligaga and TV Tower properties in Turkey (joint ventures with Teck).

These guys are cashed up as well for some sustained drilling. I've been a buyer of these shares recently beneath $1.25.

Report this comment
#2) On November 16, 2011 at 1:06 PM, Gonzhouse (77.39) wrote:

About Pilot Gold, I agree as I have been looking at them.  Any thoughts on Scorpio Mining?

Report this comment
#3) On November 16, 2011 at 1:16 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.71) wrote:

I like the looks of Scorpio well enough, and own a small stake.

Report this comment
#4) On November 16, 2011 at 1:32 PM, PeteysTired (< 20) wrote:

Do you have any idea about the JAG move today?

Report this comment
#5) On November 16, 2011 at 1:35 PM, 100ozRound (29.44) wrote:

PeteysTired

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203611404577041842827925470.html

$1 billion offer for Jag

Report this comment
#6) On November 16, 2011 at 1:41 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

"Shandong Gold is offering $9.3 per share in cash, a 73 percent premium to Jaguar's Tuesday close in New York."

 Jesus!

Report this comment
#7) On November 16, 2011 at 1:55 PM, leohaas (32.11) wrote:

Thanks again for all your hard work on the mining companies. After my own DD, I followed your top pick for 2011 (Gammon Gold). I am up almost 40%. Keep up the good work.

For those who don't know it yet: TMFSinchiruna is the mining expert on the Fool. Ignore his writings about the sector at your loss.

Disclosure: long AUQ at the time of writing.

Report this comment
#8) On November 16, 2011 at 2:18 PM, 100ozRound (29.44) wrote:

RVM is my shining star today after a decision on Rock Creek

Report this comment
#9) On November 16, 2011 at 2:42 PM, walion (< 20) wrote:

Many thanks for your blog.  You have provided some great insights and opportunities.  I don't write much but I try to read everthing you write.  I, too, have been loading up in Brigus in recent weeks.   Have you written anything on Atna Resources? 

Report this comment
#10) On November 16, 2011 at 3:15 PM, BillyTG (29.25) wrote:

bought BRD and PPP about 7 weeks ago thanks to you, and up something like 30-40% in that time. Thanks!

The JAG offer makes you wonder just how undervalued mines are right now...

Report this comment
#11) On November 16, 2011 at 3:21 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.71) wrote:

A fascinating day with a ton of news flow. I'll be a busy Fool tonight catching up.

walion, I have not written up Atna, but I do own some shares. They scored a gorgeous deal from Barrick for the Pinson mine.

Report this comment
#12) On November 16, 2011 at 9:17 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Rye-Patch-Expands-Cortez-Gold-ccn-2885306550.html?x=0&l=1

Rye Patch Expands Cortez Gold Trend Holdings; Acquires Joint Venture Option in the Patty Project

"The Patty project represents a tremendous opportunity along the prolific Cortez Gold Trend. Since 1991, the Cortez Trend has delivered over 39-million ounces of gold, and in August 2004, the district produced its ten millionth ounce of gold. Barrick's September 6, 2011, discovery announcement suggests the upside potential of the trend continues to the south, and our 100% owned Garden Gate Pass project and the Patty project could be the next nuggets along the golden chain. Patty has similar geologic characteristics to the recent gold discoveries along with a small resource and gold in several drillholes in the right rocks along the strike projection of the gold corridors. Having the financial and technical capabilities of Barrick and US Gold as our partners ensures a new discovery can be taken to the next phase. We are very excited to start the exploration programs," commented William C. (Bill) Howald, the Company's President and CEO.

Report this comment
#13) On November 16, 2011 at 9:32 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=ATNAF

                                               shares held  % total change         

Sprott Asset Management LP 4,248,748       4.29     4,248,748    New 0 12/31/2010

In September 2011, the Company closed a $20 million Credit Agreement with Sprott Resource Lending Partnership ("Sprott") to finance the Pinson acquisition.

http://www.atna.com/s/News.asp?ReportID=490564&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Atna-Resources-Reports-Third-Quarter-Earnings-of-2.5-Million

http://www.atna.com/s/News.asp?ReportID=490631&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Atna-Drills-385-Feet-Grading-0.053-ozton-Gold-at-Reward-Project

I have a few shares.

Sky Pilot

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinch

Report this comment
#14) On November 16, 2011 at 9:36 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Pilot Gold looks very intruiging!!

Report this comment
#15) On November 16, 2011 at 9:36 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Gotta give Speedybure credit for his atna call, although I did not pick up shares unfortunately..

Report this comment
#16) On November 16, 2011 at 9:41 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

Some more for those readers not familiar with Atna:

10/24/11

Atna Drilling Increases Size of Reward Gold Deposit

http://www.atna.com/s/News.asp?ReportID=478525&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=North-Main-Zone-Expanding-at-Atnas-Briggs-Mine

Tue Sep 13, 2011
North Main Zone Expanding at Atna's Briggs Mine

Sorry, if I am off topic.

Sky Pilot

 

Report this comment
#17) On November 16, 2011 at 10:42 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Sinch, do you have any idea for all the thumbs down on here for Pilot?

Report this comment
#18) On November 16, 2011 at 10:59 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

 SN3165

http://www.pilotgold.com/news/pilot-gold-reports-third-quarter-financial-results

For what it is worth.  I made money on Fronteer and feel I will with Pilot Gold.  Take a look at the link above.

These folks running the company know what they are doing.

Sky Pilot

 

Report this comment
#19) On November 17, 2011 at 7:30 AM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Theyve got cash, which is good.

Report this comment
#20) On November 17, 2011 at 10:27 AM, jwebbzor (< 20) wrote:

Could somebody break down and explain Brigus' new flow-through share agreement with Primary Capital.

I don't quite understand how this offering works.
http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Brigus+Gold+Corp+Announces+Private+Placement+Financing+Flow+Through/5725087/story.html?cid=megadrop_story

Report this comment
#21) On November 17, 2011 at 10:28 AM, jwebbzor (< 20) wrote:

Could somebody break down and explain Brigus' new flow-through share agreement with Primary Capital.

I don't quite understand how this offering works.
http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Brigus+Gold+Corp+Announces+Private+Placement+Financing+Flow+Through/5725087/story.html?cid=megadrop_story

Report this comment
#22) On November 17, 2011 at 7:16 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Hey I'm not sure either Jwebb, however obviously selling the units at $1.70 is not a bad thing. Remember they have an option to buy back half the gold stream going to Sandstorm (currently 12 percent) and they will have the chance to get that down to 6 percent for something like 35 million, so thaT could be one reason. Another is they could be making a decision on Goldfields. Just guesses.

Report this comment
#23) On November 17, 2011 at 9:51 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Cardero-Announces-Letter-iw-941227344.html?x=0&l=1

Cardero Announces Letter of Intent to Acquire the Trefi Metallurgical Coal Property Located in the Peace River Coalfield of Northeast British Columbia

11/17/11

Report this comment
#24) On November 17, 2011 at 10:12 PM, silverminer (31.04) wrote:

Sky  ;)  Thanks for posting!!

Report this comment
#25) On November 18, 2011 at 8:04 AM, jwebbzor (< 20) wrote:

SN3165, how can they offer flow-through shares at $1.70 when the market is paying $1.28? These are common shares to be traded on the toronto stock exchange correct?

Report this comment
#26) On November 18, 2011 at 10:07 AM, jwebbzor (< 20) wrote:

Ok, I understand how it works now.

Yes, they are common shares sold at a premium. So, this is definitely share dilution. The reason they are able to sell the shares at a premium is because of the canadian tax benefit to the shareholders:

http://www.milliondollarjourney.com/how-flow-through-shares-work.htm

 

Report this comment
#27) On November 18, 2011 at 9:35 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

 Context for post 23, above

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/11/01/how-you-can-beat-my-latest-40-gain.aspx?source=iaasitlnk0000003

 

http://beta.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/CDYid1479977/CDY-Cardero-Resource-commences--field-program-in-British-Columbia

 

Peace River Coal Field of north eastern British Columbia:

http://www.em.gov.bc.ca/MINING/GEOSCIENCE/COAL/COALBC/Pages/default.aspx#peace%20river

see:

Coalfields of British Columbia

 Sky Pilot

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinch

Report this comment
#28) On November 22, 2011 at 5:41 PM, walion (< 20) wrote:

KBX looks to be a good turnaround story that now has a good entry point IMO.  They have a number of mid-tier neighbors which also makes them an attractive acquisition target.

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement