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The Gun Craze is Just Getting Started

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March 25, 2009 – Comments (15) | RELATED TICKERS: SWHC

I know Fools that followed me into this trade are wondering when to get out of it. SWHC is up over 110% since I posted on it 17 Feb 09.

I took out some of my leveraged, but I am not getting out of this trade based on a price, but more on a time line or specific events I expect to see in the coming months. 

My WAG is the gun craze is just getting started, in 6-12 months it will get nuts, IMHO

Some things I am looking for:

1. You will see people camping outside of sporting good stores waiting for ammo shipments

2. Jim Crammer will do a show on guns

3. A new IPOs on ammo makers are created

4. Families will put down their PS3, XBOX 360s etc... and will be going to the gun range

5. There will be more sporting events and shows about guns coming to a theater near you

6. Factories will re-tool to produce ammo and guns

7. Tariffs will block out foreign weapons imports. 

Again for you Fools, that do not buy into this story, just wait, you will see.

Reuters is telling us what Fool already knows:

In American crisis, anger and guns:Bernd Debusmann

By Bernd Debusmann

WASHINGTON, March 19 (Reuters) - In the first two months of this year, around 2.5 million Americans bought guns, a 26% percent increase over the same period in 2008. It was great news for gun makers and a sign of a dark mood in the country. Gun sales shot up almost immediately after Barack Obama won the U.S. presidential elections on November 4 and firearm enthusiasts rushed to stores, fearing he would tighten gun controls despite campaign pledges to the contrary. After the November spike, gun dealers say, a second motive has helped drive sales: fear of social unrest as the ailing economy pushes the newly destitute deeper into misery.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N18371036.htm 

My posts on Guns here:

The Solution. What is more rare, harder to find then gold and the consumer is buying at a high premium?

March 22, 2009

Violence Until Debt Jubilee and Jim Rogers (03 Mar 09)

March 06, 2009

Net Long the US Market! (Ultra-shorts and Guns and Ammo)

March 05, 2009

Obama Promises To Stop America's Sh-tty Jobs From Going Overseas.

Detroit: Homicide Down, No One Left to Kill

March 03, 2009

Barron's writes what Fooldom Knows, the Consumer is Buying Guns and Ammo; Faber and Rogers Opine

March 01, 2009

When in Africa do as the Africans. Long SWHC and RGR

February 25, 2009

Long Smith & Wesson Holding (SWHC). Top Ten Story: Guns and the Constitution: A legislator finally gets it

February 17, 2009

 

 

 

 

 

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 25, 2009 at 11:17 AM, FleaBagger (29.00) wrote:

Maybe it's just the "Abitare Bounce."

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#2) On March 25, 2009 at 11:35 AM, dudemonkey (38.17) wrote:

This makes me want to leave the country.  A fully armed populace that has no realistic idea of what's going on in the world does not speak well for the future.

I'm not saying they're wrong, I'm just saying that no good can possibly come from this.

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#3) On March 25, 2009 at 11:48 AM, Imperial1964 (97.85) wrote:

If a fully armed populace makes you uneasy, dude, go ahead and leave.  I actually prefer an armed populace, as did our founding fathers.

My .45 ammo is still on backorder since early February.

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#4) On March 25, 2009 at 12:02 PM, keith60 (98.34) wrote:

  What is going on in the world that makes it a bad idea to be armed in America? 

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#5) On March 25, 2009 at 12:06 PM, JTShideler (78.01) wrote:

I am concerned that the Obama administration plans to use the violence in Mexico as a reason to restrict gun sales in the United States.  Attorney General Holder already hinted towards that earlier.  Although I think a much more plausible attack will be to go after people's ammunition.  If people can buy guns but can't find or afford ammunition because of the taxes then it achieves the same results.

People forget that the 2nd Ammendment giving the population the right to keep and bear arms was not to provide protection from each other but really to provide protection from our government.   

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#6) On March 25, 2009 at 12:09 PM, keith60 (98.34) wrote:

  How come it's a craze when people are talking about guns?  I  never heard it called an iPOD craze, or Crocs Sandals craze, or PS2 craze.  Hey, gun and ammo stocks, buy them, watch them, sell at the right time...make money.

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#7) On March 25, 2009 at 12:13 PM, MikeMark (29.41) wrote:

Great post. It's true. The populace is up in arms. The thing is, it's a good thing, not a bad thing. Liberty is first defended at home.

What's interesting about this arming of the populace is the "enemy." The "enemy" appears to be the government of the people, by the people, for the people. Except it isn't. The governments of the world are not listening to or protecting all the people any more. Laws and contracts are broken by a government gone mad stealing from the average to give to the wealthy (businesses and thereby people) that should go bankrupt. So the people feel the need to protect themselves.

I believe it will continue to be that way until government begins to rule by law again. So there's another indicator for you. Look to the Constitution of the United States of America.

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#8) On March 25, 2009 at 1:10 PM, angusthermopylae (38.73) wrote:

I prefer the quote "An armed society is a polite society."  (Can't remember who first said that...)

As far as SWHC, I'm stuck wondering if I should follow the herd (buy) or wait for a mini-drop.  Overall, I think you're pretty much dead on, abitare.

(Generally, I hate following the herd:  It smells, the view never changes, and you can never be sure if they are heading off a cliff or not.  And cows aren't too particular about when/where they do their "business.")

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#9) On March 25, 2009 at 1:11 PM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Available .45 ammunition:

http://www.the-armory.com/shopsite_sc/store/html/45_acp_ammo.html

It's easy to find online.

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#10) On March 25, 2009 at 2:45 PM, Harold71 (21.75) wrote:

I will say that I am not surprised at all.  The masses are scared and they are buying guns.  Heck I bought a few extra last year, and one in particular that I'd postponed for many years.  While unfortunate circumstances are bringing it about, I also think it's great in many ways.

This is like watching the solar bubble.  You just can't believe or know how much longer it can go.

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#11) On March 25, 2009 at 3:49 PM, angusthermopylae (38.73) wrote:

Just an update--I decided to follow the herd and both green-thumbed SWHC and bought it for my real-world portfolio...yippee! I made 0.23% in the first afternoon.  :-P

Very persuasive, abitare.  For myself, I'm not going to be contributing to SWHC's profits myself--already own enough weapons and ammo to not worry.  Plus, I can do my own reloading, if necessary.

Not that I'm worried about that....

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#12) On March 26, 2009 at 8:06 AM, abitare (34.64) wrote:

Good replies here. Of interest front page of FT on Wenesday, 25 Mar 09 Gun sales shoot up.

FYI - expect to see more of this type of stuff:

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#13) On March 26, 2009 at 5:26 PM, abitare (34.64) wrote:

FleaBagger,

Maybe it's just the "Abitare Bounce."

 Normal I get the "abitare cut in 1/2" ie SKF which went form $130 to $70 to finally $200

:)

  dudemonkey 

This makes me want to leave the country. 

 Don't got to Switzerland! They are well armed and have avoided was for 500 years.

A fully armed populace that has no realistic idea of what's going on in the world does not speak well for the future.

Who are you talking about? People are buying arms in response to what is going on in the world. Do you think they need them to shop at Walmart or to watch AMerican Idol?

I'm not saying they're wrong, I'm just saying that no good can possibly come from this.

Wrong, again, get smart on Switzerland.

Imperial1964 Nothing to add, I could not have said it better myself.
  keith6 Aligned with your statement.
 JTShideler If people can buy guns but can't find or afford ammunition because of the taxes then it achieves the same results. Good reply, very good reply. But in Somalia and other places with the poorest populations in the world still get ammo. Can ammo replace the currency? Actually, yes, it could until the law changes.  right to keep and bear arms was not to provide protection from each other but really to provide protection from our government.  yep, hopefully, we will not need protection from either.  keith60 

  How come it's a craze when people are talking about guns?  I  never heard it called an iPOD craze, or Crocs Sandals craze, or PS2 craze.  Hey, gun and ammo stocks, buy them, watch them, sell at the right time...make money.

Yep


MikeMark

Great post. It's true. The populace is up in arms. The thing is, it's a good thing, not a bad thing. Liberty is first defended at home.

Aligned

I believe it will continue to be that way until government begins to rule by law again. So there's another indicator for you. Look to the Constitution of the United States of America.

 Yes, concur here also.

angusthermopylae, 

I prefer the quote "An armed society is a polite society."  (Can't remember who first said that...)

Yep,

As far as SWHC, I'm stuck wondering if I should follow the herd (buy) or wait for a mini-drop. 

I removed my leverage waiting for a drop to buy back in, the drop has not arrived, I think this run may get out of hand and I won't be able to.

TBLUF- The story is real, and the story has legs, promotion, and is just getting started.

(Generally, I hate following the herd:  It smells, the view never changes, and you can never be sure if they are heading off a cliff or not.  And cows aren't too particular about when/where they do their "business.")

Concur, but I ran with the commodity bulls, and got out early, I think this story has legs.

Donnernv, Thanks again for your help and wisdom on the gun issue.  Harold71

I will say that I am not surprised at all.  The masses are scared and they are buying guns.  Heck I bought a few extra last year, and one in particular that I'd postponed for many years.  While unfortunate circumstances are bringing it about, I also think it's great in many ways.

Great reply. I am aligned here:   I also think it's great in many ways.

This is like watching the solar bubble.  You just can't believe or know how much longer it can go.

Awwww, did I ever make some CAP points off the solar bubble. I did not make any money.


angusthermopylae GL, I wish I had a larger position, I had thought there might be a drop to buy into, it has not come. 

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#14) On March 27, 2009 at 5:52 PM, tonylogan1 (28.14) wrote:

Illinois politicians and socialist leaders are both awful good at getting rid of gun rights.

 The gun "craze" will last at least as long as the poker craze.

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#15) On March 27, 2009 at 5:52 PM, tonylogan1 (28.14) wrote:

Illinois politicians and socialist leaders are both awful good at getting rid of gun rights.

 The gun "craze" will last at least as long as the poker craze.

Report this comment

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