TMFHelical (99.02)

The Helical Portfolio

January 04, 2011 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: NVS , SGEN , PPDI.DL

A couple of months ago, I noted that my Roth was entirely invested in the healthcare sector.  I also said I would use this blog as a continuation of the exercise of tracking this port starting with the turn of the year.  Well, the year is a few days old now, so better get started.

Actually, I had a nice post 2/3 written on Sunday related to baseline allocations for the portfolio, and I messed it up and lost it.  Table that post for later.

When CAPS came out, I was writing sporadically for TMF on healthcare and biotech.  I work for a near virtual drug developer, and wanted to see if I did -- or could -- use my day to day knowledge / interest in the industry to successfully invest in it.  CAPS for me has always been entirely sector focused, though I often have a wide eligibility criteria, willing to include for example companies like GE and Siemens which have minority health operations.   In reality, my investments were only partially in healthcare, though that % has been growing as I gained confidence and experience with the sector.  It does take years, in my opinion, to really establish an investing oriented mindset to your daily activities / readings.

CAPS is for me a learning exercise, and talking about this port here will be as well.  I do this for me, and fully expect to be fickle about it.  Read on if you like, and do ask questions, but don't assume I'm all that experienced with what I'm talking about.  Getting there I think, but not there yet. [The catch-22 of equity investing is that once you have the necessary experience to invest in equities effectively, you are old, and should be mostly in bonds - : ) ].

I did add funds to the Roth before the end of the year.  Since I first detailed the account in early November, it has done very well.  Shame I didn't start my tracking then.

To start the year, the portfolio was worth $50,173.96.  A good size portfolio to start tracking in my opinion.  I've long felt that investors should focus initially on saving and use mutual funds to accumulate investment capital, at least for the first 50 - 100K, then start looking to individual stocks [I've long believed that the point where investors do or don't get 'engaged' is when investments reach ~ the level of annual income]. This port will be almost always individual securities.

I plan to hold quality securities that I think will do well (duh?), but not always kill myself predicting intrinsic value (which I think is always subjective and elusive) or insuring I have the 'perfect' company (though some competitive analysis should always be done).  I want to try to capture trends that I believe in and avoid ones that concern me.  I'm going to learn about the decisions I've already made, and do hope I can find the time to post about them, because honestly, doing so reinforces the learning process well for me.

The portfolio currently consists of (end of 2010 values):

Biorad

20   BIO   $2077.00   4.14%

BioReference Laboratories

150  BRLI  $3327.00   6.63%

Cardinal Health

70   CAH   $2681.70   5.34%

Cash

    -      $2754.01   5.49%

Cepheid

300  CPHD $6825.00   13.60%

Consumer Value Stores

75   CVS  $2607.75   5.20%

Exelixis

300  EXEL $2463.00   4.91%

Genomic Health

200  GHDX $4278.00   8.53%

Johnson & Johnson

90   JNJ  $5566.50  11.09%

Kendle

300  KNDL $3267.00   6.51%

Medtronic

100         MDT  $3709.00   7.39%   

Novartis 

50   NVS  $2947.50  5.87%

Pharmaceutical Products Development Inc

200  PPDI $5428.00 10.82%

Seattle Genetics

150  SGEN $2242.50  4.47%

One of the first things to do is figure out how to best post tables (maybe via picture files).  The intent is to update on the holdings a couple of times a month.  And post as much as practical about where I might invest next and why (as well as sales).  We’ll see how it goes.

One caveat on this is that the Roth is an extension of the emergency fund if need be.  I figure my need to change jobs – that is sugarcoated – my chances of being jobless this year as better than 50%.  [Ironically, a couple of safer jobs I nearly got and took but didn’t would have likely ended – tough industry right now].  But, I’ve thought that before.  I can get by in that situation for a time, but things would stress after 4-6 months and it might be Roth tapping time.  I really hope not, but that would certainly end my little extroverted investment musings of this port.

TMFHelical

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