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goldminingXpert (28.62)

The History of GoldminingXpert, a CAPS Autobiography (Part 1)



December 02, 2008 – Comments (13) | RELATED TICKERS: GG , TGE.DL , GOOGL

The GMX Retrospective Part 1: The Early Days

This series of posts will take a look back at the the lucky and surprising run of GoldminingXpert from a newbie to a top 10 CAPS rating. In this part, we examine GMX's 2007 CAPS activities... notable for the complete lack of points scored from this era.

7/23/07 On this summer day, I made my first ever pick, a red thumb on Google. This overvalued overhyped stock just had to go down, at least I thought. This pick is representative of the futility of the early CAPS days. This pick would be closed in March, 8 months later, at a three point CAPS gain. What a complete waste of a red thumb. However, some of the other early picks fared slightly better.

As the commodity bubble was still ongoing, I placed green thumbs on USO and (gasp!) Goldcorp (GG). Oil was clearly on the rise, this pick would be locked in at a 38 point gain. I could have had so much more, but at this point, the idea of scoring points on green thumbs was very foreign to me. Throughout my CAPS experience, I've struggled to score points with the green thumb, ending up with lots of 50 point+ losers as my long picks go to zero. The Goldcorp pick was also good as the stock ran up nicely scoring me 27 points. Of course, it also could have been milked for a lot more points before its complete collapse this fall. Also of note from this day, I started work on securing my first score leader on a stock... I picked the piece of junk good for nothing FLOW to go down. At the time, the CAPS community was strongly bullish on this clunker. It's gone from my first pick at $9.61 then to $1.90 today. My five red thumbs on it have scored a combined 45 points while all ending in the green.

10/29/07 It would be another 3 months before I would make more picks. The next batch was inspired not by my own ideas but instead by good old-fashioned CAPS dogpiling. The first of my 7 red thumbs on Countryfried Financial came here along with picks on such notable dogs as Razor “Technologies”, MBIA, the now defunct Worldspace.

11/28/07 GMX makes his first big bold pick, red thumbing TGE (TGC industries), at the time the #1 rated stock on all on CAPS (according to the now departed “Beat the Street”) feature. The top stock amongst the entire community—it now has fallen 80% as the oil bubble collapsed. This is my most proud score leader, as I've riden it from #1 on CAPS to unratable today! I called it junk, but was largely ignored for months. However, my contrarian spirit would continue to grow based off of gutsy decisions like this one. Also notable, I discovered the power of Andrew Left (Citron Research). I redthumbed BIDZ after his blistering pan on the company and I watched with glee as the stock dove. I would go on to make lots of CAPS points and dollars red thumbing and buying puts on the dredge he would find. One final note: 41 of the 43 picks I made between July and the end of November would end up green... only 2 losers out of 41. Note to new players here, you must bank accuracy for your quest to dethrone Specbear to be complete. A lot of good players suffer from too many losers early on and fail to recover. Despite my high accuracy, my CAPS score failed to break 500 at this time. This was the humble beginnings of the GMX CAPS rise towards the top. Next time, we'll cover December of 2007 when the points started coming faster...


13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 02, 2008 at 1:19 PM, semper77 (< 20) wrote:

Not a bad story, but pretty tame compared to most of the VH1 retrospectives I've seen.

You need to throw a dead hooker and a coke habit in here to spice it up a little :)

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#2) On December 02, 2008 at 1:30 PM, GNUBEE (< 20) wrote:

GMX, what do you think of a stock..

It's called LSCG.ob......?

Sorry, couldn't resist. :) I'll mark you down for one punch to the face.


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#3) On December 02, 2008 at 1:30 PM, goldminingXpert (28.62) wrote:

it'll get more interesting once we hit the market crashes, the confrontational blogs with TMFSinchurina and others, and so on. The early months of my CAPS days weren't the most fascinating... I didn't get a single CAPS groupie until March '08.

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#4) On December 02, 2008 at 1:33 PM, goldminingXpert (28.62) wrote:

Speaking of LSCG.ob, Everydayinvestor opened my eyes on CAPS a bit with his decoy pick. I'll devote more time to this stock in particular later in the series.

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#5) On December 02, 2008 at 9:30 PM, Tastylunch (28.52) wrote:

When is the romance going to come into this story? We all know Sinchi is the rival but who turns GMX's heart? Hollywood isn't going to bite on this unless you can give Jessica Alba a role somehow . :-)

march 08 is when you first started blogging right? I think i joined as a groupie around then...

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#6) On December 03, 2008 at 12:05 AM, goldminingXpert (28.62) wrote:

you'll get little in the way of sex or drugs here. If you want an intimate look at how one CAPS player got to within the same stratosphere as Specbear, you're at the right place. Hopefully my experience can be of some value to most of you. I'm not promising the most exciting biography ever though... then again, you're reading investing blogs--really--what do you expect? ;)

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#7) On December 03, 2008 at 12:27 AM, Imperial1964 (93.41) wrote:

If you're looking for spice, you need to read my autobiography.  The one I'll never write because it would be self-incriminating.

Just kidding (mostly).

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#8) On December 03, 2008 at 3:02 AM, TheGarcipian (34.17) wrote:

Good stuff, GMX. Keep the commentary coming, though I'll still be waiting for Jessica Alba or Robin Meade of CNN fame. Now there's a babe that you could work into the Hollywood version of your script!

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#9) On December 03, 2008 at 7:51 AM, dexion10 (26.83) wrote:

Thanks GMX


I couldn't agree more with your point about the need for accuracy  to dethrone the spec bear.  

I don't have good accuracy as I stayed too bullish on "good stocks" too long I also have a tendacy to cover shorts as their prices peak !!


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#10) On December 03, 2008 at 10:41 AM, biotechmgr (< 20) wrote:

Interesting self-examination... 

Totally agree on the accuracy piece. For those of us who started later, I'm not sure dethroning anyone will be possible. Too many points to catch up?... chuckle...

However I do have some growing confidence in timing turns so the key to breaking into top 50 at this stage will be hitting the turns and playing both ways. Then, at the end of this Biggest Baddest Bear market, we'll see who has had all the right moves .

 Perhaps a top 10 may be in reach but one would be fighting against some well established bears. That will depend on how bearish one is versus how bearish the bottom.

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#11) On December 03, 2008 at 11:57 AM, goldminingXpert (28.62) wrote:

bullmarketn09 reached the top 5 within one month of showing up here. he just green-thumbed a full batch of oversold financials. The top 10 is more reachable than ever... on any green day in the market, the entire top 10 excluding eldrehard loses points. Go long at the right moment and you're there.

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#12) On December 03, 2008 at 3:28 PM, BigFatBEAR (28.28) wrote:

I think inverse ETFs (since they are leveraged AND get score from the difference of the market movement) are the key to quickly penetrating top 10 for a newbie. (see andlonmia, abitareperfect, etc.)

That, and like you mention, freakish accuracy. ;)

Good run-up, look forward to seeing where you go from here. Perhaps you could add-lib in just a little bit of sex/drugs/romance? I mean, we've all grown up on DIS...

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#13) On December 03, 2008 at 3:48 PM, Tastylunch (28.52) wrote:

Robin Meade, dude I forgot about her! She used to be a local tv personality here in Cbus!

not sure she can act though...

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