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JakilaTheHun (99.94)

The Hun's News Invasion, 11/30

Recs

55

November 30, 2009 – Comments (21) | RELATED TICKERS: GS , EWZ , FXI

Almost every week day, I read a large number of news articles from a number of publications.  I collect them and store the content in a little "database" I have, so I can retreive them at a future data.  Since I do this most days regardless, I've thought about sharing this content in various places online. 

Today, my friends, CAPS shall get its first dosage of the Hun's news invasion!:

 

"Dubai Crisis is Arab Economy's Opportunity"

Link - Market Watch

Article about Dubai, disparities of wealth, and how the Middle East seems to be more characterized than most regions by a lack of a middle class.  

 

"How China is Overbuilt"

Link - The Economist

There have been a lot of articles popping up lately about a potential Chinese bust.  I'm becoming more and more convinced that not only is this a possibility, but that it also may be the flame that ignites a second leg of the Great Recession.  Fwiw, I largely agree with the hypothesis that China is overbuilt and that much of the growth is an illusion.  How this should be translated into an investment perspective - I'm not so sure.  Remember, China has relatively low debt and can afford to continue the mirage so long as foreign capital pours in and so long as they can continue to fund massive building projects that aren't necessarily economically productive.  Remember, the Soviet Union didn't die in a day and the US has been on a reckless path since the Reagan Administration, but it took awhile for the consequences to be unleashed.  All the same, there's enough about China right now to make me fear that a bust could come sooner rather than later. 

 

"Brazil to Keep Real Near 1.7 USD"

Link - Bloomberg

Conversely, I'm more of a believer in the Brazilian growth story than the China one. 

 

"Buyers Take a Pass on Some Failed Banks"

Link - Wall Street Journal

Good article on how some of these banks are so weighted down by junk, that no one even wants to buy them with large FDIC guarantees. 

 

"Remaking St. Charles in the Shade of Green"

Link - Washington Post

I found this little gem buried in the WaPo's local news section today.  It's interesting, but it also seems a bit strange.  Essentially, the community of St. Charles, MD is taking dramatic steps to become a "green community" because they believe this will be good for business.  If you read between the lines, you can translate this into 'people want their property values to go back up.'  What makes this bizarre is that St. Charles is an deeper suburb over 20 miles away from Washington, DC and a bit isolated from most of the DC's regions job centers.  There is no Metro rail access any where near St. Charles, either.  So, I find it interesting that a community that is basically full of people that will use vast amounts of oil for daily commuting will try to bill itself as "green."  I have no real comment on whether this is good or bad --- just found it interesting. 


Chelsea Clinton Engaged to Banker

Link - BBC

Finally, I saved the best for last.  I briefly glanced over this headline and almost decided not to read it.  But I thought it would be alright to take a little guilty pleasure and read about Chelsea Clinton's engagement.  Turns out, instead of being the nothing article I expected, it actually is one of the most (unexpectedly) insightful articles on the relationships of the Clintons I have ever read.  Chelsea is marrying a banker --- and not only a banker, but a Goldman Sachs banker! Does anyone else find this aristocratic class forming right before our eyes to be a bit surreal?  But wait ... there's more!  The banker's father was a politician who served time for bank and wire fraud!  So just in case you had any doubts about the ethics of our American aristocratic families --- you have another inkling that should destroy that. 

 

That's all for now!  Have a good day.

If you'd like to see more Hunnish news invasions, maybe I shall consider make it a semi-regular feature. 

21 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 30, 2009 at 3:11 PM, Bamafan68 (97.88) wrote:

Thanks!  +1

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#2) On November 30, 2009 at 3:11 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

The recs will hopefully speak for themselves, but I'll say it now anyway: I'd like to see regular Hunnish news invasions.

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#3) On November 30, 2009 at 3:30 PM, PSU69 (87.96) wrote:

Enjoyed!  Do more.

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#4) On November 30, 2009 at 3:37 PM, EnigmaDude (88.82) wrote:

What - nothing about Tiger's car accident!? (thanks for that)

I think that your interpretation of the news is more useful than the news itself. For example, I agree with your Brazil vs China growth story analysis.

So yes, please keep it coming!

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#5) On November 30, 2009 at 3:52 PM, SkepticalOx (99.46) wrote:

You're my fav blogger :)

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#6) On November 30, 2009 at 4:24 PM, rustyph (27.60) wrote:

THANKS HUN!  YOU'RE THE BEST

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#7) On November 30, 2009 at 4:32 PM, cthomas1017 (95.62) wrote:

Agree with others.  Keep it coming, Jak! :)  Twice a week would be great.

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#8) On November 30, 2009 at 4:45 PM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

Chelsea Clinton Engaged to Banker

I guess she and her fiance' fell in love while commiserating over crooked fathers.

 

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#9) On November 30, 2009 at 5:33 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (33.42) wrote:

nice finds

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#10) On November 30, 2009 at 5:58 PM, Eudemonic (63.12) wrote:

Did Chelsea ever have a sporting chance of marrying Joe Sixpack?

 

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#11) On November 30, 2009 at 7:09 PM, chk999 (99.98) wrote:

This was great, please make it a regular feature!

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#12) On November 30, 2009 at 8:01 PM, Tastylunch (29.35) wrote:

 I love it. Anomalee used to do something similiar . I miss that guy.

 hah your mind and mine seem to be increasingly aligned. Or perhaps thy always weree and I just didn't notice it.

I hold the exact same views on China and Brazil.It's why I bought ELP last winter. I have speculated on the long side of the China bubble though.

James Chanos btw is shorting China agressively. I think he's early but he usually is. What he also usually is correct.

Brazil has it's own problems to be sure (violence, gangs, deforrestation, gov't that likes to seize companies etc.), but their problems bother me less an investor.At the moment anyway.

Sides their plusses are huge (energy indepednet, net exporter of raw goods). I thik Jim Rigers may have placed his bets on the wrong BRIC country.

I'll see if I can dig up that Andy Xie article on China vs Japan (1989) comparisons.

Does anyone else find this aristocratic class forming right before our eyes to be a bit surreal? 

Unfortunately there was only candidate who mentioned this in the last election and that was John Edwards. The "Two Americas" as he called it has been developing for some time now. If you've lived at all in the Rust belt since the 1980's it's obvious. The only difference is that it's accelerating now.

I have old classmates who have become part of it, some still work for Sachs. It's weird on both sides of it. What will be interesting is that it's heavily localized to the East Coast (and to a lesser degree west coast). The bankers here in Columbus aren't anywhere near that.

I think the risk of domestic class "terrorism" unfortunately is becoming increasingly likely. People here in the midwest are very very upset. Push 'em too much more and who knows what might happen.

People can only take rising unemployment with 40% bonus increases for so long before the social contract is violated.

I'm holding out hope that it doesn't go that far, but if things don't change in the gov't's handling of various matters I don't see how this will get better.

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#13) On November 30, 2009 at 8:12 PM, chlyd (< 20) wrote:

 Please keep up the invasion !

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#14) On November 30, 2009 at 9:48 PM, jatt22 (49.01) wrote:

good effort .  rec + 

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#15) On November 30, 2009 at 9:58 PM, floridabuilder2 (99.36) wrote:

good stuff.  I will say that as far as banks or investors for that matter not buying failed banks that will result in the FDIC sweetening the pot.  Eventually we get RTC 2 when there just aren't any buyers and this is where it gets fun buying assets piecemeal!

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#16) On November 30, 2009 at 11:43 PM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

Jakila....Enjoyed it.

I also prefer the Brazilian story better than the Chinese one - especially given the technical support.

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#17) On November 30, 2009 at 11:43 PM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

Jakila....Enjoyed it.

I also prefer the Brazilian story better than the Chinese one - especially given the technical support.

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#18) On November 30, 2009 at 11:43 PM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

Jakila....Enjoyed it.

I also prefer the Brazilian story better than the Chinese one - especially given the technical support.

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#19) On December 01, 2009 at 2:10 AM, tonylogan1 (28.23) wrote:

rec40.

clinton - GS... too funny

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#20) On December 01, 2009 at 5:21 AM, hhasia (65.64) wrote:

Set up to fail:

Thats how would describe western investors who process information about China with the blinding economic and cultural bias.  It is clear that the premis is built on a western foundation. That foundation does not work in China, nor should investment decisions be contrived from such a base.

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#21) On December 01, 2009 at 1:43 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.94) wrote:

Tasty,

On China vs. Brazil, I agree that Brazil has a lot of problems, but I feel the fundamental difference between China and Brazil is one of openness.  All actors have an incentive to fudge things a bit, but the more open a society, the more likely that the "reality" will escape quickly.  Here in the US, it's difficult to hide things.  In China, not so much.  My belief is that GDP figures are being manipulated to put on a show for the rest of the world.  This attracts foreign investment, which is what China desperately wants.

Brazil seems to be on more stable footing from what I can tell; which isn't to say they won't have their ups and downs, too.  Still, there has always been somewhat of a power and economic vacuum in South/Latin America and Brazil seems to be moving into the role of "center of power" and overtaking America in that regard. 

Brazil's problems also seem more fixable to me than China's.  China has 1.2 billion people, which holds down wages and exacerbates poverty.  Brazil has income inequality and poverty, as well, but when you look at resources vs. population, it's a much simpler equation there than in China.

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