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IBDvalueinvestin (98.29)

The Jobs data today was expected by Majority that is why the DJIA fell -200 points yesterday.



October 02, 2009 – Comments (8)

Everyone that knows anything about jobs data knows that Sept. always has a fall off from August because all the College & High School kids that were hired for Summer Jobs, leave their jobs in the first week of Sept. as they go back to school.

Anyone who tells you he is surprised with today's data is either lieing out of both sides of his mouth or is ignorant.

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 02, 2009 at 8:58 AM, lemoneater (56.79) wrote:

I've always wondered how summer jobs figured in the employment numbers. Also if a student leaves his summer job and then comes and gets a part time job right at the college he is attending does his college job count in the numbers since many student jobs are not available for anyone but students?

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#2) On October 02, 2009 at 9:06 AM, biotechmgr (< 20) wrote:

Your logic is completely flawed. These numbers are official jobless based on claims. They are seasonally adjusted. They are based on the elimination of jobs, not people leaving jobs for school.

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#3) On October 02, 2009 at 9:07 AM, IBDvalueinvestin (98.29) wrote:

The student job in College is not counted because its part of his or her financial aid package. Colleges are allowed to pay students using their financial aid package and are tax free. Does not even file W2's. How do I know? I had this type of job while I was in college.

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#4) On October 02, 2009 at 9:10 AM, russiangambit (28.86) wrote:

Either way the expectation was for 180K andf it came at 263K, almost a 50% miss, it can't be explained away by seasonal factors.

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#5) On October 02, 2009 at 9:18 AM, brickcityman (< 20) wrote:

Also this is jobless claims right?  If memory serves the typical college summer job does not qualify you to claim unemployment... 


If I'm wrong on this then I will kick myself for eternity for never collecting the "free" money while I was in college... 


Furthermore I thought some seasonality factors were included in this stuff... to cover things like state parks who cut back on staff when they ramp down at the end of summer.

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#6) On October 02, 2009 at 9:27 AM, devilzadvocate (< 20) wrote:

I would second that pros knew about this data. However, market correction was due and hence we will see another 2%+ drop today.

This news is just another catalyst for the drop.. not the real cause.

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#7) On October 02, 2009 at 9:49 AM, lemoneater (56.79) wrote:

I thought that some students jobs were "under the radar" as it were. Thanks for the clarification. I've also wondered how many hours someone has to sew, tutor, or teach piano to have it count as a job. Some weeks pickings are very slim for my relative looking for a regular job. 

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#8) On October 02, 2009 at 11:58 AM, russiangambit (28.86) wrote:

HP had a big lay off  just last week, trimming the headcount after the EDS purchase. Apparently, they don't expect recovery any time soon regardless of what NASDAQ does.

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