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goldminingXpert (30.87)

The Market Is About To Plunge (Day 2, Volume 2, Part 2)

Recs

13

May 01, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: WH , O

In response to the nonsense being run by a few people, including regretfully, a columnist at my college newspaper, I offer this quote from Bloomberg news:

"Mexico, the first country known to be hit by the new H1N1 flu strain that has reached 11 nations, has about 35,000 samples waiting to be analyzed, said Dick Thompson, a spokesman at the World Health Organization. Those samples, which experts say hold the key to understanding the virus, are held in a guarded laboratory surrounded by walls, gates and guards, that is less than 4 miles from downtown Mexico City."

Oh, so, the WHO has said there's only a few cases, eh? They are, to quote a denier on my previous thread who said that the WHO has, "aggressively disavowed those death numbers and place the number of dead at 8 as of last night." Well what about that quote? How about those 35,000 samples? Explain that one for me? It will be interesting to see what the Mexican flu deniers say as the disease continues to spread.

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This post is in response to comments off my previous thread here. While the market is going to tank regardless of the effects of the Mexican Flu, we're going to go down a lot faster when the quarantines and shutdowns across the country multiply.

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 01, 2009 at 1:47 PM, goldminingXpert (30.87) wrote:

Here is the Bloomberg article entitled: Swine Flu Probe Slowed by Backlog in Mexican Sample Testing. The title tells you all you need to know. Really, you feel the flu is irrelevant because the world health organization can't test samples fast enough to keep up with the death count? That's weak logic.

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#2) On May 01, 2009 at 3:19 PM, dudemonkey (54.41) wrote:

They are, to quote a denier on my previous thread

You may remember me from such past denials as "you don't need to nail yourself in your house on Dec 31, 1999", "smart people don't need to stock up on duct tape (unless they have lots of stuff to tape up)" which was my famous denial from 2002 made while living in the high threat area of Manhattan, and my recent hit denial "just because the stock market went down doesn't mean you need a panic room full of .32 caliber rounds and Spam."  Like the Dixie Chix, people burned recordings of my now infamous "there is no f**king way there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq" denial. :)

In all seriousness, I don't deny that this flu has the potential to be a serious event, but I'm not seeing the inevitability the way you are.  That's really the fundamental difference between our viewpoints.  I think this is manageable, and I think that the effects on well over 99% of people who actually do get infected are manageable and don't require hospitalization.  I also postulate that health care in a post 9/11 United States that's trenched for a potential pandemic and health care in Mexico City when very few people suspected an outbreak of this flu are very different.

I also looked back at the 1976 swine flu, which I realize you dismiss as irrelevant, and found that the infection was localized and very containable (this may not be as true today), but that the panicked overreaction that followed killed 25 times as many people and hospitalized almost 40 times as many people as the flu itself.

At this point, I'm operating based on the facts of the situation and not the media reports.  The media has long been suspect in situations like this. Consider it the alstrynomics of the swine flu.

In the interest of full denial disclosure, I did deny the sentiment that the Arizona Cardinals would reach the Super Bowl in this century.

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#3) On May 01, 2009 at 3:22 PM, mode7 (88.21) wrote:

This is satire, right? While swine flu is not great, it still ranks far behind regular flu in terms of deadliness and it's not like we've had a breakout of Ebola Zaire or something (I'm totally panicking though if we ever do, but it'd have to be a strain spreading through the air). Even Nipah and Hendra viruses are far more frightening than Swine flu.

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#4) On May 01, 2009 at 5:18 PM, huddaman (75.40) wrote:

gmx,

 

have you seen the earnings report. many many companies have reported well and some that have not reported well have shown signs of improvement.

 

check bbby, ibm,  msft, whr

 some have shown drops of 20-30%, but many have also shown resilience or improvement. 

 i think economy is coming back slowly.

you can't deny that eventually we will see a recovery, can you?

why do you deny that time is now? can you download your thoughts here for everyone's benefit?

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#5) On May 02, 2009 at 10:52 AM, OctoStalin (46.74) wrote:

Hudda, your confusing investment with spectulation. The economy and stocks will recover, however the recent bull run unjustified. Traders can make money on this.

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