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goldminingXpert (29.46)

The Market Is About To Plunge (Day 13, Vol 10)

Recs

34

May 13, 2009 – Comments (21)

Green shoots? "Are you crazy?" asks Karl Denninger of The Market Ticker. His main points are that unemployment is not reacting as it did in previous recessions, sales tax receipts are unfathomably bad (-50% in Cali!), the stress tests are frauds and Bernanke continues to be clueless. I highly recommend the entire article for your reading. It has a great graphic and his writing, as always, is solid.

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I'd love to see bulls dismantle the logic of the post I linked to, but I've been here long enough to know that won't happen as the article is pretty irrefutable. Instead, a legion of people who couldn't invest their way out of a paper bag will insult my personal character (again) as a way of sheltering their fragile personalities from the potential hazard my opinions cause to their sense of confidence.

21 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 13, 2009 at 4:44 AM, hall9999 (99.25) wrote:

  I wouldn't worry since the total population of California is only 500K.

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#2) On May 13, 2009 at 5:16 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

And if you get rid of the evil immigrants the rest population of 300K real Americans will have an employment rate of 100% (OF THE TOTAL POPULATION) working from cradle to grave ...

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#3) On May 13, 2009 at 7:03 AM, ttboydxb (28.78) wrote:

Looks like Banking stocks are still a great buy tho.....   Seriously, anyone dumping their hard earned $$ into toxic banks that are most likely going to get taken over by the Gov (That would be you Citi and BAC) right now has some seriously huge b***s...

 

As for employment numbers, seriously think back to the last 2 recessions we've been through.  How many friends / relatives lost their jobs during that time?  How about now?  I for one have seen a huge difference, my wife and I were trying to add up all the people who either they or someone in their house has lost their jobs and it was crazy we counted 27, yup 27.

 

If the US was a big industrial producer, I could see "green shoots" or things starting to turn around right now, One could reason "we make lots of stuff, the world went thru a tough time, but sooner or later they'll start buying our stuff again, and we can start buying/hiring again, recession over!"

 

But 70% of the US's economy was CONSUMPTION, not PRODUCTION.  How do you turn that around unless you get some type of production and industry.  Unfortunately there is no money left to build new factories and plants because the $$ is all tied up by Bernake to bail out his stupid banking friends....

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#4) On May 13, 2009 at 7:18 AM, DanePymble (< 20) wrote:

And all the "fools" will couner your statements by quoting succesful investors of a completely different (and much more benign) economic environment saying "be greedy when others are fearful" etc etc.

They really don't understand the magnitude of what is going on and are in a cocoon if they think that fear truly reigns supreme at the moment. Maybe they are smoking to many green shoots!

I proclaim that people are not fearful enough in respect of what is yet to come. You should see what it is like here in Australia, we really don't get it, typical close minded view that whilst things are bad overseas they can't possibly get that bad here......

  Thanks for the link, very good read....

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#5) On May 13, 2009 at 7:18 AM, DanePymble (< 20) wrote:

And all the "fools" will couner your statements by quoting succesful investors of a completely different (and much more benign) economic environment saying "be greedy when others are fearful" etc etc.

They really don't understand the magnitude of what is going on and are in a cocoon if they think that fear truly reigns supreme at the moment. Maybe they are smoking to many green shoots!

I proclaim that people are not fearful enough in respect of what is yet to come. You should see what it is like here in Australia, we really don't get it, typical close minded view that whilst things are bad overseas they can't possibly get that bad here......

  Thanks for the link, very good read....

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#6) On May 13, 2009 at 7:28 AM, oSUNo (46.86) wrote:

 

Oh noooes... 

Well, that's enough happiness for Obama. Now he has to comply with law, specifically, Title 12 Ch16-Sec1831, and whether they contributed to his campaign or not, whether he wipes out all his buddies careers, he must abandon the outrageous deception of standing by for another round of looting.

The world economy depends on it.

 

I'm oSUNo. 

Thanks for listening.

 

 

 

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#7) On May 13, 2009 at 7:38 AM, outoffocus (23.09) wrote:

And all the "fools" will couner your statements by quoting succesful investors of a completely different (and much more benign) economic environment saying "be greedy when others are fearful" etc etc.

They really don't understand the magnitude of what is going on and are in a cocoon if they think that fear truly reigns supreme at the moment. aybe they are smoking to many green shoots!

Actually the "Be Fearful"statement is quite relevant right now because the bulls are being very greedy.  Because the bulls are greedy (especially when it comes to these crappy banks and companies with crappy balance sheets) I'm getting fearful. 

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#8) On May 13, 2009 at 9:23 AM, rofgile (99.32) wrote:

It goes back and forth.. when the S&P fell below 750, people on the short side were getting greedy, thinking that the short side run would keep going down to S&P 600, 500, 400.. etc.  

I've heard all those numbers as real predictions on CAPS many times.  Since this correction to the bear market (ie bull run), I've heard the bears get more conservative in their predictions.

I agree overall that this bear market is going to continue for the next half year at least, but at this point I think things go sideways from S&P-800-1000 for a while.  Thats a big range though, and trading / selling at peaks / buying in at dips is not bad for either side of the game.  

I'm a long term investor, so I wouldn't mind it going back down again one more time to build on my long positions.  I'm still investing in stocks that I believe are oversold even at the current market levels.  They do exist - which is why it has been possible for the market to rise like it has these last two months.

 -Rof 

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#9) On May 13, 2009 at 9:41 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

Finally!  A little reality into the market this morning.

Dow -163

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#10) On May 13, 2009 at 10:01 AM, huddaman (98.66) wrote:

GMX,

Once your prophecy comes true, how bad will it get before it gets better?

How much patience required before it will be time to jump-in? When would you buy your next stock?

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#11) On May 13, 2009 at 10:23 AM, goldminingXpert (29.46) wrote:

I think this move down will bottom between 740 and 825, somewhere in that neighbourhood. We should then make a lower high <870 in late summer and then really let loose to the downside toward 666 again in the fall. Of course, that's just a general roadmap and people like Obama have the ability to create detours.

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#12) On May 13, 2009 at 10:40 AM, StopLaughing (< 20) wrote:

To answer your article directly, taxes tend to be a lagging indicator, and CA is not the rest of the US.  CA is a high tax state with a lot of mobile illegal aliens.

The focus on "jobs lost" as a percent of employment may not be the best indicator. It may be more relevant to look at the percentage who do not find employment after benefits exhaust. From a macro economic stand point, the loss of purchasing power is the major concern. Different graphs will give a different perspective. However, this recession is a very bad employment recession.

The failure of a mortgage program that was "political theatre" from the beginning, "We have to have a program to prove we care" is old news and not relevant.

Your last point is relevant to some degree. The Fed is trying to manipulate interest rates and will for a while. It remains to be seen if the combination of Fed and fiscal manuevers will actually reflate the economy. I am less worried about the Fed and a lot more worried about Obama's agenda and another oil price spike. 

Some sectors will reflate quickly and others will drag.  I like oil, silver miners then gold and drillers in that order.

 

 

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#13) On May 13, 2009 at 10:58 AM, huddaman (98.66) wrote:

"people like Obama", you mean President Obama I hope?

 

Thanks for your insights.

 

 

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#14) On May 13, 2009 at 11:14 AM, goldminingXpert (29.46) wrote:

That is correct.

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#15) On May 13, 2009 at 11:28 AM, Effloresce (30.37) wrote:

Of course, that's just a general roadmap and people like Obama have the ability to create detours.

 

You better believe it, and that's one hell of a wildcard. I don't like it. I hate all this gubment intervention. Let the free market reign supreme and let the market determine the winners and losers for itself. 

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#16) On May 13, 2009 at 11:47 AM, ocsurf (< 20) wrote:

I'm with Effloresce!

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#17) On May 13, 2009 at 11:54 AM, BigFatBEAR (29.16) wrote:

Ultralong is out of the top 10 for now, and Port looks to be getting squashed out - my confirmation is in.

Picked up 25 shares of SDS and QID this morning, and this time I'm not stopping myself out.

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#18) On May 13, 2009 at 4:16 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Port looks to be getting squashed out

we will see about that ...

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#19) On May 13, 2009 at 4:19 PM, goldminingXpert (29.46) wrote:

BFB: Port may be squashed out, yes, but I'm sure another profile under his name will reach the top 10 when he goes all in long from a base of 600 on the S&P.

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#20) On May 13, 2009 at 4:58 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

BFB: Port may be squashed out, yes, but I'm sure another profile under his name will reach the top 10 when he goes all in long from a base of 600 on the S&P.

That is some "idée fixe" of yours, isn't it?

Please have a look at the comparison of my first player (hansschmidt) and my "main/active" player portefeuille: 1, and at the corresponding calls.

I think it is fair to say that they have a huge "overlap" (the calls). The same holds true for the other players I have "created".

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#21) On May 14, 2009 at 12:31 AM, arabianmoney (< 20) wrote:

Spot on the talk of green shoots is a media nonsense, see: 

http://arabianmoney.net/2009/05/14/green-shoots-a-media-fantasy-facts-not-supportive/ 

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