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goldminingXpert (29.40)

The Market Is About To Plunge (Day 14, Vol 11)

Recs

35

May 13, 2009 – Comments (25)

While I'm not going to officially call a top yet, the odds are definitely rising that the top is in on this bear market rally. Why? The speculative garbage people have been buying are getting smashed today. The GMX CRAP index (Companies Rapidly About to Plunge) is getting shelled today. Here are the components of the CRAP:

General Motors

China Scamergy (sorry, Sunergy)

MBIA

Ambac

Dryships

Ruby Tuesdays

MGM Mirage (apt discription "mirage" of your investment $$$s in this company)

Hovnanian

Gt Solar

HR Block

New York Times Co.

American CRAPital (ACAS)

Here's the pertinent charts:

 

1-minute chart this morning to show that the(weak) bounce in SPX has not rubbed off on the CRAP at all.

crap stocks 1m

1 hour chart to show just how much people's aversion to CRAP has changed in the past couple of days:

crap stocks 1h

25 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 13, 2009 at 11:42 AM, Ibeatmykids (84.40) wrote:

alright bro! you are right for one day!  You should be proud!

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#2) On May 13, 2009 at 11:43 AM, alstry (35.09) wrote:

Can't you see that HUGE convex reflector formation.

Nothing reverses Ghoser and the spector vectors like the luster effect of physical Gold....NOTHING!!!!!!!

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#3) On May 13, 2009 at 12:01 PM, dudemonkey (39.83) wrote:

I'll agree that these companies are likely to go down over the short to medium term.  If the market follows, that's fine.

I'm actually rooting for you here, GMX.  I want to see prices drop.  I've got a stockpile of cash and a positive cash flow and would be happy to snap up some excellent companies with strong fundamentals and honest growth prospects when they are oversold.

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#4) On May 13, 2009 at 12:48 PM, Ibeatmykids (84.40) wrote:

I will be fine either way whether the market goes up or down because I have cash as well as stocks.  I also have a job that supports me so I infuse cash into the market gradually.  But in an attempt to not look self righteous I don't predict what the market will do on a daily basis. Rather I view it with some perpsective.  I take the chart of of the 1-3 day view and expand that into the years view.  Much easier that way and you dont look dumb 13-out of 14 blogs.

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#5) On May 13, 2009 at 12:54 PM, goldminingXpert (29.40) wrote:

Much easier that way and you dont look dumb 13-out of 14 blogs.

Good good, the comments were way too positive and uplifting. Nice to see a smart guy comes along and says that by failing to stick his neck out and make predictions, he can't be held accountable and this is somehow superior to offering concrete verifible predictions. Well, what exactly is the purpose of blogging if it isn't to enlighten?

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#6) On May 13, 2009 at 1:01 PM, devoish (98.65) wrote:

GMX,

I am as skeptical as you are about this rally. Although it will look bad if it gets to day 57. I suspect there are alot of trailing stops out there waiting to trigger.

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#7) On May 13, 2009 at 1:03 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

good call GMX but wait for the close -- it needs to be down from here to shake the bulls into selling their top buys.

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#8) On May 13, 2009 at 1:20 PM, Ibeatmykids (84.40) wrote:

GMX,

it is clear that you are very knowledgeable more so than me when it comes to stocks.  I am sure you will be wildly succesful in the future when you graduate.  I do make predictions but I don't do it on a day to day basis as that garuntees I will be wrong very often.  My previous comment was intended as contsructive criticism.

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#9) On May 13, 2009 at 1:26 PM, goldminingXpert (29.40) wrote:

alright, that's fair. My posts aren't going to look dumb in retrospect. I said at the beginning that the bear market rally was coming to an end and I would keep posting until that became clear. It took a couple weeks, now it appears to be coming to an end. Anyone who thought about buying stocks thinking it was a new bull market in the last 14 days and then decided to hold off because they read my posts will thank me. I don't judge myself on a daily basis--I judge by weeks and months, and this call is looking more and more right as the week wears on. There are sprinters like Utlralong and Porte who surge to the top and then quickly fade, and then there are the endurance runners like Tenmiles and myself.

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#10) On May 13, 2009 at 1:28 PM, dbjella (< 20) wrote:

 Ibeatmykids

But in an attempt to not look self righteous I don't predict what the market will do on a daily

Where is the constructive criticism in this sentance? 

In my opinion, you would have been better served by taking it out.

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#11) On May 13, 2009 at 1:51 PM, Ibeatmykids (84.40) wrote:

I will not pull all of my money out nor go all in.  I beleive that the market will go down, but bottom line is I don't know.  If it goes up or down I am happy.  Its just easier that way and it's not so cut and dry as right and wrong.   The strategy of gradually infusing money is something that can not be shown on caps as you are either right or wrong, green or red.  I am not so sure your strategy on Caps translates well into real life money. Your strategy definetely seems to be a very microscopic (calling tops and bottoms) approach to buying and selling and you are almost garunteed to miss the bullseye every time just like you have in the last 13 days.  In the long term I am sure you will make money but there is so much room for error.  I like to take the guess work out of it and KISS it.  Keep It Simple Stupid.

 Thank you for the blogs though man.

Mason

 

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#12) On May 13, 2009 at 2:06 PM, ChrisGraley (29.67) wrote:

I'm sitting pretty today and so far I'm ranked higher than I've ever been. If everything sticks for the day I'll close the day with my first 99+ score.

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#13) On May 13, 2009 at 2:46 PM, dudemonkey (39.83) wrote:

The strategy of gradually infusing money is something that can not be shown on caps as you are either right or wrong, green or red.  I am not so sure your strategy on Caps translates well into real life money.

This is a big concern with CAPS.  It actually has very little to do with real investing.  I don't believe CAPS strategies will work all that well in real life unless you are managing a hedge fund.

If you are an investor, watch these CAPS players very closely.  You will learn how to take advantage of the short-term focus that these players have.

I'm not bashing the short-term strategies.  I'm just saying that if it's not your thing it's actually fairly trivial to take advantage of their steps and successfully engage in long-term investing.  In real life ... not in CAPS.  You just have to decide which is more important to you.

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#14) On May 13, 2009 at 3:23 PM, portefeuille6 (99.73) wrote:

There are sprinters like Utlralong and Porte who surge to the top and then quickly fade, and then there are the endurance runners like Tenmiles and myself.

Well, we will see ...

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#15) On May 13, 2009 at 3:25 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

(wrong player)

There are sprinters like Utlralong and Porte who surge to the top and then quickly fade, and then there are the endurance runners like Tenmiles and myself.

Well, we will see ...

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#16) On May 13, 2009 at 4:32 PM, jamasony2 (< 20) wrote:

I happen to be riding the short bus with you, but, what are your thoughts on $BDI heading back up?  Do you put any stock in it as a leading indicator?

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#17) On May 13, 2009 at 4:34 PM, goldminingXpert (29.40) wrote:

good grief hansschmidt, how many of you are there? With enough time and e-mail accounts, I'm sure you'll always have a profile near the top 10.

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#18) On May 13, 2009 at 4:35 PM, goldminingXpert (29.40) wrote:

jamasony2:

I don't particularly follow the Baltic Dry, though I do closely watch the Dow Transports index. I do follow Dryships--it is part of my CRAP index.

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#19) On May 13, 2009 at 5:03 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

good grief hansschmidt, how many of you are there? With enough time and e-mail accounts, I'm sure you'll always have a profile near the top 10.

again:

That is some "idée fixe" of yours, isn't it?

Please have a look at the comparison of my first player (hansschmidt) and my "main/active" player portefeuille: 1, and at the corresponding calls.

I think it is fair to say that they have a huge "overlap" (the calls). The same holds true for the other players I have "created".

 

 

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#20) On May 13, 2009 at 5:07 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

The point scores are about even now. Not such a dramatic move ...: 1

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#21) On May 13, 2009 at 5:13 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

There are sprinters like Utlralong and Porte who surge to the top and then quickly fade, and then there are the endurance runners like Tenmiles and myself.

At least I am usually running in the right direction: 1

(I just had to make this cheap comment having looked at the graph. I think there is no further need for daily discussions of our "ranks")

 

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#22) On May 13, 2009 at 5:15 PM, goldminingXpert (29.40) wrote:

Wow, you're right about accuracy. You just dropped to 18th a good hour after the market closed.

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#23) On May 13, 2009 at 5:40 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I think it is better to ignore it.

My

Average Pick Score: +14.90

is alright (considering my average holding period), that should do ...

I join bravobevo.

Being #1 was never really my main goal (maybe goal 10 or so), at least as long as there is a rating system that does not seem to give bravobevo a chance to achieve that. Shutting down the "top fool messages" would have been nice though ...

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#24) On May 13, 2009 at 5:48 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

... not to forget d1david, foolsmethrice and quite a few others ...

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#25) On May 13, 2009 at 7:47 PM, ChrisGraley (29.67) wrote:

At least I am usually running in the right direction!!!!

 

That's the way I feel in a nutshell. I've reversed course twice already this year and we're only 5 months into it. A lot of luck is involved, but I did change direction both times before the market did.

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