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goldminingXpert (29.53)

The Market Is About To Plunge (Day 14, Vol 12)

Recs

33

May 13, 2009 – Comments (25)

Today was an exciting day, however I urge caution and prudence rather than cheering and celebration. The bulls have been very strong over the past two months; they've had far more endurance than I expected. We must respect them and realize that they will use anything, no matter how stupid, to set off another rally. The way the market was reacting to GM news last week, I fear a surprise Ford bankruptcy announcement could shoot the S&P to new highs! We must remain vigilant and aware in case the bulls bust out their crackberries and set off one more round of malacious rumours, unbelievable spin and malignant short squeezing to try to grind us back to 930. With OPEX coming up Friday, you have to realize danger is high. While the put/call ratio has been absurd, it's still possible the market makers will try to prop stuff up until your puts expire worthless. In all, be cautious, we've probably entered a downtrend of a significant degree but we haven't broken enough support to celebrate yet. When I break through 11,000 points and climb up to the top spot, then it'll be time for us bears to start poppin' champagne.

A cold analytical rundown of the numbers:

SPX 883.92 -24.43 2.69%

Nasty-100: 1340 -37 2.8%

Dow: 8285 -182 2.2%

Dead banks (XLF): 11.39 -.61 5.08

Russell 2000 small(and shrinking further)caps: 472 -23 -4.7%

GoldminingXpert: 10,465 +709 7%

The Reality Index: 2,103 +723 (+52%)

The Companies Rapidly About to Fall (CRAP) index:  54.55 -8.39 (13.33%)

portefeuille: 10,388-573 -5%

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Bears: Enjoy your gains today but remain vigilent.

Bulls: If you couldn't handle today, sell tomorrow because we bears are coming out of hibernation and today is only the beginning of our next hunt.

25 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 13, 2009 at 4:54 PM, goldminingXpert (29.53) wrote:

Oops, forgot the inverse of gmXmkttiming:

Ultralong: 7,164 (-862) -11%

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#2) On May 13, 2009 at 4:56 PM, outoffocus (23.43) wrote:

Is it just me or has the CAPS scoring been stalled for the last few hours?

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#3) On May 13, 2009 at 5:06 PM, motleyanimal (48.85) wrote:

Yes indeed, bears should be careful out there.

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#4) On May 13, 2009 at 5:10 PM, goldminingXpert (29.53) wrote:

Is it just me or has the CAPS scoring been stalled for the last few hours?

I was holding this blog post for a good 45 minutes after I had it typed up but my score never updated.

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#5) On May 13, 2009 at 5:15 PM, outoffocus (23.43) wrote:

I was holding this blog post for a good 45 minutes after I had it typed up but my score never updated.

Yea I just logged a ticket. We'll see what happens.

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#6) On May 13, 2009 at 6:07 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

GMX wrote - "portefeuille: 10,388-573 -5%"

That was lame! Stay DAMN humble or the market will do it for you. This man proved his worth than many out there. He is also starting to have great track record in Caps.

Stop making people who can add value to YOUR thinking go away. These people can use their time in better places than trivial jib-jabs. You can pick on UltraLong who has none but bunch of "one day wonder" picks.

GoodVibe

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#7) On May 13, 2009 at 6:13 PM, goldminingXpert (29.53) wrote:

Goodvibe: I have little respect for his track record (yet). All I see is a guy who got lucky calling a bottom and created a variety of profiles to flaunt the one that worked out best. We'll see how his score sits when the market is back at 666. That said, your comments are noted and I'll think about them.

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#8) On May 13, 2009 at 6:29 PM, oldbe62 (97.30) wrote:

I don't think you will have all that much to worry about.

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#9) On May 13, 2009 at 6:57 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Thanks buddy for your consideration! BTW - What do you think about miners?

GoodVibe

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#10) On May 13, 2009 at 7:05 PM, goldminingXpert (29.53) wrote:

I'm long NXG, though evidently I should have sold. I'm bearish on GDX, neutral to slightly bearish on the metals themselves. There are far better shorts than GLD though GG still looks like an attractive short.

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#11) On May 13, 2009 at 7:31 PM, mistermiranga (89.95) wrote:

I am back from the woodshed with less of a swagger...more of a limp now. One day at a time with caution.

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#12) On May 13, 2009 at 9:12 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

GDX - Do or die. From today's action, it looks to me as die. It was a die hard one but so far, so well in this trade. I reloaded today on some dark side in RL as well as in caps few days ago.

GoodVibe

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#13) On May 14, 2009 at 1:42 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

These threads make me lose weight from laughing so hard. I say let it fall...ive been riding FAZ the past few days and its been a pleasant ride. I love being the inverse fund with which to be compared to....gives me the warm fuzzies inside.

Goodvibe....that was cruel man....cruel...lol

UltraLong

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#14) On May 14, 2009 at 9:50 AM, REITDUDE (84.48) wrote:

↑ (my nickname in high school)

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#15) On May 14, 2009 at 11:17 AM, cclogic77 (25.67) wrote:

haha REITUDE well timed humor. my only question is how many profiles did UltraLong make till he got it right on march 9?

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#16) On May 14, 2009 at 3:27 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

CClogic... 1... I have 1 port. I don't believe in this make multiple players garbage

UltraLong

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#17) On May 14, 2009 at 3:36 PM, JibJabs (83.16) wrote:

"trivial jib-jabs"

I am entering the lexicon. From there I will make my stand. Beware. 

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#18) On May 14, 2009 at 4:27 PM, rexlove (99.57) wrote:

It's amazing how many people think they are experts in this game because they get these high scores red-thumbing OTC and pink sheet stocks. This has no relation to real investing. Most of the people in the top ten of CAPs achieved these high scores following this path.

We need some rule changes here in CAPS. Something that more accurately reflects real world investing. Then people like this will get little creedance.   

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#19) On May 14, 2009 at 5:15 PM, TigerPack1 (81.69) wrote:

When and where is Motely Fool holding its annual CAPS Leaders convention this year?

I believe they should invite the Top 20 or 50 or even 100 each summer for an all-expenses paid vacation and get together weekend -

Any other comments on this idea?

Perhaps it could be set up like a Barron's Roundtable discussion.  With several articles written afterward about the winners, their backgrounds and current market picks.  It makes more sense than Barron's cherry picking people based on reputuation vs. performance. 

Plus, this annual expense-paid event would be a great lure for new players and a nice reward for all the hours I spend trying to out-think the rest of you!!!

Since EverydayInvestor appears to be from St. Louis (if my memory is correct) and he is currently #1, perhaps it should be held in this central location geographically, and he can host us?  No sickles at the airport, please.

 

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#20) On May 14, 2009 at 5:49 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

I am not so sure I want to travel to the US. If I were to qualify (I am starting to have my doubts about that after a plunge from #2 to #22 in 24 hours based mainly on the "accuracy" tanking from 85% to 79% ...) I might send a video message!

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#21) On May 14, 2009 at 6:09 PM, TigerPack1 (81.69) wrote:

I would prefer a trip to Europe next year, as your reward for the #1 spot in 12 months, paid-in-full by the fool.com.  I will even agree to remain at #2, if the Motley Fool guys are up for it.

I am sure many of us Yanks would love an expense-paid vacation to your neck of the woods!

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#22) On May 14, 2009 at 6:12 PM, goldminingXpert (29.53) wrote:

I will even agree to remain at #2, if the Motley Fool guys are up for it.

What's this about a conference? And what about #1 or #2? I don't understand. Finally, I highly doubt anyone will ever hold #1 for 12 straight months on here.

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#23) On May 14, 2009 at 6:50 PM, bostoncelitcs (50.35) wrote:

What happened to the retirement savings of millions of average working Americans such as teachers, policemen, and firefighters who had their money in stocks and stock mutual funds while Wall St. "traders" reaped huge rewards "shorting" stocks on regulations relaxed by the Bush administration?

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#24) On May 14, 2009 at 7:11 PM, goldminingXpert (29.53) wrote:

Bostonceltics, blaming the people shorting insolvent companies for a financial crisis is foolish. The real blame lies with the government and the companies themselves for creating and sustaining a massive fraud. Short sellers expose the fraud. Don't shoot the whistleblowers, shoot the executives and politicians who made the mess.

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#25) On May 14, 2009 at 7:35 PM, mistermiranga (89.95) wrote:

Anyone long for the past month has made good coin at the direct expensive of the short sellers. Markets are manipulated in a variety of ways.

The lesson is to trust no one with our hard earned money. Be diligent and protect yourself...no matter what your idealogy.

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