The Market Is About To Plunge (Day 15, Vol. 13)
May 15, 2009
– Comments (34)
The market is about to plunge? How can we be sure? Along with the many better reasons, I offer up a different approach. Despite what my feeble-minded critics type, I have a track record here. Leading critic Drumnutt has never made a single pick on CAPS, yet he had the audacity to post this regarding the alledged inaccuarcy of my predictions: "I don't expect 100% [accuracy], but maybe you could aim for at least 10% and then build from there?!?!" on his smearblog. Anyway, let's take a look back into the archives to see if anything I've said could have been of use to you:
Short The Phone Book (April 2008, S&P@1364)
(Short) Sell Countrywide Now (May 2008, CFC@6, acquired at 4.25 by BAC two months later/that's a sweet return.)
GGP, The Facade Comes Unglued (May 2008, GGP was at 40, I said to short to 0, it's at 1.05 now. 96% of my price target achieved. I'll quote my blog at length.)
"These morons at General Growth Properties have at best, $5 a share in assets according to Reggie's brilliant Boombustblog... commercial malls in a depression are dead meat. GGP's debt is mostly due by next year, the untold billions of it, and no way do they get it all renewed on favourable terms. GGP is trying to sell off properties but are finding no buyers. Instead of pre-emptively filing for bankruptcy, these morons keep paying a dividend and imagining a world where they aren't toast. GGP is finished, I'm short it, own puts on it, and own SRS (the ultrashort of commercial real estate) whose largest holding is short GGP. These guys are a $0... short at $40, cover at $0... that's $40 a share profit in free money. I'm going to get rich off these clowns... they were down 5% today, join me before the party ends."
General Growth, The Experts Weigh In (When I'm right and I know it, I get repetitive to make sure you enjoy the profits with me.)
Bears Still In Charge (S&P 1385, May 2008)
Why Does CAPS Like Wuhan Blower? (June 2008 @7.50, now at 1.57)
When Does This Whole Wind Bubble Blow Over (June 2008, AMSC then 44, today 23. By the way, AMSC--the company I was bashing in that post made it's record high 1 day after the post and then proceeded to lose 80 % of its value in the upcoming 6 months.)
Western Refining, It's Time To Buy (August 2008, WNR @ 6.97. This would be the first of more than half a dozen blogs recommending this stock. It is up 110% since this first pick!)
Cal-Maine Foods, Great Company, Terrible Stock (August 2008, stock down 40% since this post.)
Recommending Western Refining Again (August 2008, WNR @ $9)
Western Refining Thrives (Sept. 2008, WNR @ $9)
Shorts Are In Trouble, Western Shares Will Double (Sept. 2008, WNR@$11--WNR would rise another $5.30 from this point to $16.30 last week--sure beats the negative return the S&P brought.)
Red. Thumb. All. Banks. Now. (Sept 19, 08 XLF@22.38. A mere month later, in October, the XLF would trade at 13. That's a 40% gain in one month if you shorted when I advised.)
Buy Puts Now. Crash Coming (Sept 30, S&P at 1150. Two weeks later, S&P at 850. That's right, GMX called a 25% decline. But GMX is never right!)
Sell All Ultrashorts Now (Oct. 10, S&P at 900.) The next day was the single biggest gain in Dow history as it rose 900 points. Now that's good market timing. I got you a crash and got you out a day before the biggest one-day up move in market history.
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I could go on at length, but the above posts are more than enough for me to rest my credibilty on. I literally can't stop laughing when people who've never made a single CAPS pick rail on me for not having a track record.
Actually, let me throw one more in...
From the Fool's main page, Christopher Barker wrote up a piece where CAPS players picked their pet stock for 2009. Mine, of course, was Western Refining. WNR began 2009 at 7.76. It last traded at 14.2 and was over 16 last week. That's right, GMX's pet stock doubled this year. Has your pet stock doubled? Of course, my critics argue I can't pick a green thumb to save my life, but hey, what do critics accomplish anyway. If they knew what they were talking about, they'd be leading, not sniping at the leaders.
Enjoy the OPEX excitement today, they're always fun.
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