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The new color of gold is gray...



November 12, 2013 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: GTN , GLD

I thought some of you might find this interesting.

Back in January of 2010, I wrote a blog post What is GTN doing being up over $2 again?, and in the comments section of that post, one of the fellow bloggers said that he got out of his GTN (Gray Television, Inc.) position when GTN hit $1.40 (he got into GTN at $1.15), and went entirely into gold (which proved to be a good move short term).

My reply:

2) On January 07, 2010 at 7:43 PM, dragonLZ (99.55) wrote:

GTN is the gold, jason...GTN...  :)


Fast forward to today, and GTN is a $10 stock.

Here is a chart showing GTN's performance vs. gold over the last 3 years:



I guess people were right when they said gold is not all that shines (it's sometimes gray)...



12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 12, 2013 at 1:04 PM, dragonLZ (75.26) wrote:

Oops, CAPS chart is not showing what is supposed to be showing (GLD in the negative category and GTN at +500%).

Let me try again:


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#2) On November 12, 2013 at 1:07 PM, dragonLZ (75.26) wrote:

And for people who are still in love with gold, and who think it's not really fair to compare the performance of the two only over the last 3 years (when gold didn't perform all that well), here is the 5 year chart:


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#3) On November 12, 2013 at 1:10 PM, dragonLZ (75.26) wrote:

I wonder if UltraLong would be proud of me now:

#16) On September 25, 2009 at 5:21 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.99) wrote:

Hope you have a deep checkbook if you're backing stocks like GTN


#17) On September 25, 2009 at 9:31 AM, dragonLZ (99.36) wrote:

UL, unfortunately, I don't have a deep checkbook..., but I did go to a Chinese restaurant 2 days ago, and you know what my fortune cookie said? Don't be hasty, prosperity will knock on your door soon. :)

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#4) On November 12, 2013 at 3:30 PM, Mary953 (84.63) wrote:


I am moving into solid dividend-producing blue chips now that we have finally reached retirement, but I could not resist the chance to say hi when I saw that you had posted.

Nice Charting, btw!


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#5) On November 12, 2013 at 3:41 PM, dragonLZ (75.26) wrote:

Hi Mary, very nice to "see" you again. It's been a while. Hope all is well.

Congratulations on the retirement and good luck in the future.


I think that at one point you owned shares of MGIC, which didn't perform all that well for the last two years or so. I still own shares myself and still have high hopes for this stock. It's been frustrating at times watching this stock go nowhere (even though I got in at $4.44), but I'm still not willing (or afraid) to sell as I think it could get to $10, maybe even $15 before the end of this bull market.

I know you don't currently have a position in MGIC (and I'm not trying to convince you to start one), but I just thought it would be interesting to mention a stock both of us were interested in at one point in time.

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#6) On November 12, 2013 at 4:15 PM, Mary953 (84.63) wrote:

I remember MGIC.  This is very general but they were creating something that seemed like it would have a great real world application.  I do recall holding it at one point.  I believe I made a small profit but I was too impatient to hold on to it.  Hope it does really well for you.

Fwiw, the same could be said of a bunch of other stocks that I have held at one point or another, usually because the price was really low (RT at 91 cents) or I saw a real need (Garmin when it first started) 

Can I make the assumption then that you think we are still in a fairly long term bull market instead of headed for imminent crash?  :-) 

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#7) On November 12, 2013 at 11:23 PM, dragonLZ (75.26) wrote:

Mary, yes, I do think there will be no crash (that everyone is expecting) any time soon. But just so you know, this is nothing new, I thought the same thing back in 2009 when I said this.

I do not, however, think it's only going to be up from here. I wouldn't be surprised if the next year is a down or a flat year for the market. I expect at least one more correction that will feel like the beginning of a new bear market before it's all said and done.

The market I think is slowly heating up, but it will take a while to get much more people into it before it crashes again.

I think markets crash when most of the people think a certain market is a safe bet, which is when people start being desperate to get in (being afraid they are missing on free money). I don't think we are there yet.

Of course, this is just me speculating. Nobody knows what tomorrow will bring.

I think your "defensive" approach (at this time and in your situation) is a good one.  :)

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#8) On November 15, 2013 at 5:33 AM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

It might finally be a decent time to take some profit :)

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#9) On November 15, 2013 at 6:16 PM, dragonLZ (75.26) wrote:

Thanks for the update, Porte. I wasn't visiting this site for a while and was wondering whether you posted your chart anywhere.

I did take some profits two days ago, but more because I needed some extra "spending" money for a trip I'm taking next week than because I'm afraid of the correction (even though we might be due for one).

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#10) On November 15, 2013 at 7:42 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

They are here now, those charts. Comment #7 shows that biopharma stocks have also done great recently, certainly much better than gold :)

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#11) On November 16, 2013 at 11:26 AM, Mary953 (84.63) wrote:

Porte, I finally got a chance to look at your non-TMF postings and figured out how you do so well in biopharma.  You study and talk to others who also study.  I fear I will never be comfortable enough with biopharma to make any money there.  I just don't understand them well enough and a good understanding is key to making a profit.  It just comes down to the fact that, while there is money to be made in the market, it is not a lottery.  You cannot just jump into things that you do not study and expect great returns.  Good to see you here as well and thanks for the chart links.


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#12) On November 16, 2013 at 3:39 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

Yes, that is what I like to do, hang around with people that are slightly ahead of me and there are some pretty sophisticated people on twitter. Studying some medicine/biology/chemistry stuff along the way is what makes biotech investing actually pretty entertaining. If I would have to focus on evaluating 16th century Mexican silver mines I would quit within a week :)

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