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TMFFlushDraw (93.61)

The New Normal Or Not



November 11, 2010 – Comments (2)

Went to a talk by Jim Paulson of Wells Capital Management today. You may have seen him on CNBC or maybe not. 

The basic point of his speech was to point out what a normal recession and recovery we are having. In the 80s we had high unemployment, big deficits and mass panic. The same in the 90s. And again in the early 2000s.

Now I don't have all the charts but he made a pretty compelling case. 

Bottom line, what I learned was the "New Normal" pushed by some at Pimco is most likely the exact opposite of what we will see. The "New Normal" in 2000 was an economy driven by the internet, get on the bandwagon or get left behind. That turned out to be wrong. So will the fear normal we think will become normal is probably completely wrong.

Equities are the way to go for the next 10 years or so. At least until the next panic.


2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 11, 2010 at 10:14 PM, RLAprof (< 20) wrote:

The key words are "until the next panic." That could be in ten years, ten months, ten weeks, or tomorrow.

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#2) On November 12, 2010 at 6:21 AM, KurtEng (31.10) wrote:

It's always different this time. The real key is to figure out when hysterical equity selling turns to hysterical buying and get out.

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