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alstry (36.27)

The Nightmare Begins!!!!!

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June 21, 2008 – Comments (9)

Retailers shutting down by the thousands.  Jobs being lost by the millions.  Assets crashing at speeds never seen before.  Prices for food going up up up.  Food riots all over the world.  Fuel prices going up even faster.  Who knows which jobs will be cut tomorrow.

Cities across America experiencing negative job growth.  Unemployment going up because people now going back to work looking for jobs...can you believe that....now that people need the money and are looking for jobs, the unemployment rate is exploding.  Just wait until the other half of the population starts looking for work...we could be at over 40% unemployment.

Never thought about that one did you?  Unemployment low because people not looking for work.....wow!!!!

Commercial vacancies going up.  Foreclosures at rates we have never seen before. Luxury condo buildings infesting with squatters.   We built an infastructure for a easy credit economy....now the credit is drying up and we simply can't support the infastructure.

You have many new shopping centers that are less than 1/3 occupied...and many of the new tenants are leaving due to lack of traffic.  Business is sucking wind and tax revenues is slowing to our local governments.

No jobs.  No Assets.  Lots of debt.  Who knows where this is going.

The chirping chimp is lying through his teeth to you.  He is cancelling all his picks because he knows the market is about to crash and wants to preseve his points.  You think he closed out his first wife and told his second wife they were going to have a top 100 marriage?    He knows the HBs are dead but simply won't admit to his mistake...so he keeps a few green to save face while not killing off too many points.

The truth sometimes sucks but its still better than the alternative....right now the economy is crashing at a pace that it has never before and someone has to talk about it.  If we just sit there with our thumbs up our backsides....pretty soon drinking bloody marys won't even be that much fun....and that would really suck.

How do we prepare....not by listening to the chirping chimp and his toe sucking friends.  Yes Alstry may be the bad boy of CAPs, but he tells it exactly as it is....and whenever I say something that may be interpreted wrongly, top dogger blogger demondoug is there to chew out my ass.  But my ass is looking pretty good lately....I just wish I could say that about the outlook for our economy.

The next few months could be nuts...banks shutting down, retailers going dark, sales evaporating, jobs being cut by the hundreds of thousands.  The system is shutting down and we just sit still likes frogs in boiling water.  If we keep sitting there, pretty soon we will be appetizers for some foreigner buying up our country.

 

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 21, 2008 at 6:18 PM, devoish (96.42) wrote:

Alstry,

We have enough food, we have enough water, we certainly have enough shelter. Barring an environmental disaster, the worst thing that happens is we work for free, helping each other out and losing some weight. FB does not deserve your childish name calling or personal attacks. Using those tools suggests you don't believe your arguments stand on their own merit, and therefore need a boost.

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#2) On June 21, 2008 at 6:36 PM, alstry (36.27) wrote:

Sounds a bit like communism.

As far as Floridabuilder, he brags about his schtick being a chimp and making jokes and kidding all the time and not to take him seriously.  How can you call my factual points about his inconsistent comments personal attacks on a ficticious identity?

As far as not believing my arguments, by the end of the summer we will know one way or the other...won't we?

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#3) On June 21, 2008 at 6:43 PM, alstry (36.27) wrote:

After reviewing my post, the comments about marriage and toe sucking friends were out of line and clearly inappropriate. 

Hopefully he and his wife are doing a lot of toe sucking and all of his friends are in the top 100.  That is the way I should have phrased it.

Now I have you and demon watching closely.  Thanks.

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#4) On June 21, 2008 at 7:50 PM, marketdias (84.72) wrote:

Alstry,

We are a family of 4 (2 near-50-year-old adults & 2 middle shoolers) living in the rust belt.

Would like to relocate to where the climate is pleasant year-round. We vacationed once in San Diego, and liked it very much. A great public school system is a must.

Household income is $100K, and we have very little debt.

Is now the time to look for a home in So-Cal? Is our income high enough? It's extremely affordable where we live now.

Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

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#5) On June 21, 2008 at 7:51 PM, marketdias (84.72) wrote:

Alstry,

We are a family of 4 (2 near-50-year-old adults & 2 middle shoolers) living in the rust belt.

Would like to relocate to where the climate is pleasant year-round. We vacationed once in San Diego, and liked it very much. A great public school system is a must.

Household income is $100K, and we have very little debt.

Is now the time to look for a home in So-Cal? Is our income high enough? It's extremely affordable where we live now.

Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

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#6) On June 21, 2008 at 8:28 PM, jahbu (85.55) wrote:

So alstry, Is this a deflationary depression or an inflationary one?  There is a big difference. 

Thanks

Jahbu

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#7) On June 21, 2008 at 9:56 PM, hansthered0 (< 20) wrote:

Alstry, any links to back this up?

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#8) On June 21, 2008 at 11:15 PM, misterpickles (< 20) wrote:

I've been looking at loading up on jan. Deep out of the money puts on the brokers... Anyone else?

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#9) On June 22, 2008 at 1:20 AM, alstry (36.27) wrote:

In response to the above collectively.

As humans, we try to look at history to form patterns in order to predict the future.  Often patterns are beneficial to assist in decision making.

Sometimes we hit a black swan that simply can't be referenced by historical events.

I am amazed how few really understand how deep the problems our country currently faces.  We have become a headline based society and few really work the problem from the ground up.

For example, it is accepted we are at a 60 year high for teen unemployment yet most of us believes that unemployment is low for America.  Why?...because it is the manner the numbers are manipulated.  We have a historically high number of Americans working simply for benefits, we have a historically high number of independent contractors who are not counted as employees, and we have very large number of Americans who have given up looking for jobs, circumstances don't allow them to look for jobs, or are contemplating returning to the workforce because of rising costs.

My guess is that if we counted all those who were significantly underemployed and those wanting to be employed...the number would be materially higher than 20%.

We have to be careful because not to pass judgment on behavior.  If you ask me personally, a big part of our problem is the BS leveraged consumerism that has become the essence of our society...but that is my perspective and really has no bearing on solving the problem.....namely how do you pay off over $50 trillion dollars of debt with less than $5 trillion of cash in the bank and a declining income?

My belief is that we will have to simply tighten up and be prepared for the biggest economic contraction in history.  We will have an amazing quantity of foreclosures, an incredible number of bankruptcies, and changes that few can contemplate with forethought.

The wild card is whether food and fuel prices keep rising...if so, this will truly be a cluster f*^k and many will  be hurt.

As far as preparation....just use reasonable prudence, spend less than you earn, save as much as you can, and figuratively or literally drink bloody marys til your hearts content.

I have an amazing belief in Americans. I have become very disappointed with our leaders, on both sides of the table.  The silence is deafening.  What will it take to hear the screams?  Any bets less than three months?

 

 

 

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