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The ONLY Statistician to get it RIGHT!

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March 16, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: DOW , GAN.DL

There has been a lot of statistics, guess that comes with financials and the stockmarket, flying around.  I believe that StatsGeek's analysis of how the Government went doom and gloom until the stimulas package was passed and how it is now playing cheerleader and pulling cards out of their sleeves (nice way of saying it), was a very good analysis of what has been going on lately.  While StatsGeek gets the honesty award for how easy we are to fool, he doesn't get the "RIGHT" award, (this time).

There are a lot of good posts on Elliot and Dow Theory right now, GV is really laying it on with his calls.  Personally I like charts over a wider time range to see trends, but everyone who charts will admit that they can't be used to call the turns.  GV gets a lot of credit and other charters for bringing the TA side to the table and how to use it, but no he doesn't get the "RIGHT" award (this time)!

This post is about a statistician who worked many years, we'll call him Dalliot.  Dalliot was pretty good calling something UP when it was UP and pretty good calling things DOWN when they were down.  Numbers didn't lie to him or fool him.  Dalliot had a tough time, however with any statistics that forecast the mean, medium, and middle parts of the bell curve.  The sigma's, standard deviations and anything with a middle just got to him.  He could never get it right.  What good is it if you are a statistician if you can only call the ends where you spend only a little bit of time, but can't call the middle which should be the most obvious, but gets little attention.

Dalliot was frustrated, things were either too hot or too cold, nothing in the middle felt right.  One night he was determined to solve that problem so....

 

Dalliot went to sleep one night with his head on the open door of an oven and his feet in a bucket of ice.....

 

Yes, his head was a little warm and his feet were a little cold......

 

But in the middle, he was just right!

 

Moral to the story?   I have two, maybe you can think of others.

  1.  When the market is going up fast or down fast, we put a lot of energy into calling it, fighting it, blaming it, cussing it, arguing with it and each other, calling shorts words that have nothing to do with their height, and just generally having a bad time or good time, but a time with lots of stress.  We need to also plan for that middle ground!

 2. When you have a bad pun or bad joke, there is generally, if not always, somewhere you can use it.

 

 

 

 

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