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XMFSinchiruna (26.52)

The Pilots Have Landed on the Gold Yet Again



September 19, 2012 – Comments (33)

I know some of you were paying attention in November 2011 when I indicated I was buying Pilot Gold shares aggressively under $1.25 per share, and hopefully some of you locked in a portion of gains near $1.75 in February 2012 when I remarked:

"No near-term projections here... stock has moved quite a bit and could either stall or continue near-term. Long-term, however, I think these guys are clearly on the gold once again and likely to continue piloting a profitable course."

My real hope is that more of you paid close attention a few months ago when I commented:

"You'll recall I was buying shares aggressively late last year at several levels under $1.25. I then locked in a bunch of profit over $1.70 and $1.80 in March. Now that it's careened all the way back to below $1, I've loaded up anew. We'll see how the latest round works out, but I'm feeling quite confident buying at these levels. It has nearly worked its way back into my top 10."

Needless to say, after today's press release revealing phenomenal intercepts at the TV Tower project in Turkey led the stock to a 35% surge to $1.65, I'm a very happy camper for the second time in a row. It is my sincere wish that many of you are likewise along for the pleasant ride. I'm selling 20% of my stake, and letting the rest ride. If we get another dip, you can bet I'll be piling those shares back on. It remains a top-10 holding even after taking gains, so I remain in position for the long-term multi-bagger objective of this fantastic exploration vehicle.

Here is today's press release, featuring

Highlighted is drill hole KCD-39, which returned 5.94 grams per tonne gold, 12.6 g/t silver and 0.53% copper over 137.1 metres, which extends the high-grade gold/silver/copper breccia zone in discovery hole KCD-02 over 50 metres to the south.

“We are thrilled with the fact that this is the highest gram x metre gold interval ever drilled by our team on any of our projects over the years,” stated Matt Lennox-King, President & CEO of Pilot Gold. “These first holes drilled by Pilot Gold reinforce TV Tower as the premier exploration project in northwest Turkey.”

Simply stated, Pilot Gold MUST BE OWNED! I'm not suggesting that newcomers dive in on today's surge, but in a story this compelling it's never too late for a starter position that one can average down on into any subsequent weakness. For those more likely to time an entry, these sorts of announcement-led surges in the exploration space are frequently short-lived, so it is possible that better entry points will present themselves near-term. There are no guarantees, however. All I'm saying is that Pilot Gold must be owned.

33 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 19, 2012 at 11:15 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.52) wrote:

I just remembered, I also offered this technical alert just last week when Pilot's shares broke out to $1.20. This stock was already a coiled spring that wanted to vault higher, and these drill results provided about the greatest catalyst imagineable.

Pilot Gold just broke out of a trading range, with powerful potential to run quickly to about $1.80 even without any further news like the terrific stream of news that they've been producing over the past year or more.


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#2) On September 19, 2012 at 11:39 AM, 4everlost (28.82) wrote:


Up 30ish% today alone.  As a shareholder for more than a year I had already been decently rewarded but this news and price runup is icing on the cake.  

While I'm celebrating success at Pilot I'm also trying to figure out the market's negative reaction to Primero's press release.  I suspect that there is concern that the group buying the PPP shares are going to sell them and drive down the price.  It's all I can come up with since the news doesn't change the fundamentals or outlook.  Thoughts? 

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#3) On September 19, 2012 at 12:19 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.52) wrote:


The Primero adjustment is a rational response to the advertised transaction price of the offering at C$5.25. Lines that steep on a chart can't be expected to continue without interruption and without consolidation. It's a healthy development for the shares, and in fact I'd prefer to see them retreat towards $4.50 or so where I might be inclined to repurchase some of the shares I recently booked gains on.

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#4) On September 19, 2012 at 1:18 PM, johnybottom (< 20) wrote:

Also relevant:

Sandstorm Gold Agrees to Purchase Precious Metals From Colossus Minerals

Congrats to all the Pilot shareholders!

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#5) On September 19, 2012 at 1:24 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.52) wrote:

Yeah... that's huge news for both Sandstorms, both of which are now (finally) core holdings of mine.

When my next article comes out later today, please note that it was drafted prior to today's release by Sandstorm. :)

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#6) On September 19, 2012 at 1:40 PM, Mary953 (85.34) wrote:

Finally back and able to type again.  When I asked about metals, TSIF sent me to another of your blogs which led here.  Hard to believe the prices that you foresee, but I think I said that when I sold out at about $1400/oz.  Back in and to a great extent, relying on your expertise until I can develop more of my own,  I hope 2012 has been much better to you than it has to me!

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#7) On September 19, 2012 at 1:45 PM, johnybottom (< 20) wrote:

One more thing while I have your attention Chris: article idea for later this year - I'd like to see your opinion on how the miners who stockpiled PMs in the face of low prices have fared and some analysis on whether it proved to be beneficial. IIRC, EGO is one of your primary examples; however, since I don't own any shares I haven't followed this storyline to any extend. I believe (and could stand corrected) that the companies I own are selling PM into the market irregardless of price action.

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#8) On September 19, 2012 at 2:02 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.52) wrote:

Please enjoy my latest:

5 Juicy Picks for the Ongoing QE3 Gold Rush

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#9) On September 19, 2012 at 2:11 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.52) wrote:


I don't think it was EGO.

EXK has consistently been the most effective at timing metal sales. I'm not aware of a sufficient number of producers engaged in this practice to assess a pattern.

AG's decision to invest in shares of PHYS was an impressive call, and on the gold side I LOVE IAMGOLD's gold bullion position as a core of strength in its treasury.

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#10) On September 19, 2012 at 2:24 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.52) wrote:


Welcome back into gold! :) I don't think you'll regret the decision, but do put in the time and effort necessary to build your own independent assessment of the outlook for these metals, because as volatile as this space can be, no other person's opinion will keep you standing strong in your position through a correction like the one we've just emerged from. These explosive surges on the heels of QE are the easy moments to be invested in gold and silver. The real test, and the big differntiator between successful and unsuccessful investment in this space, is one's ability to stand in conviction with the long-term macroeconomic perspective in order to withstand and outlast the inevitable and frightful corrections.

You have a whole community of Fools here to assist... not just me. I wish you the very best of luck, and please don't forget to book some gains along the way (particularly as we approach the prior all-time high) so that you can begin to take advantage of the volatility rather than becoming a victim of it.

Foolishly yours, Sinchiruna

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#11) On September 19, 2012 at 2:46 PM, Mary953 (85.34) wrote:


I seem to be starting over in most areas of investing after being away from the computer and most of everything else for most of the year ( ) however you have always been my first stop as to which gold and silver stocks if any to be looking at   It is the axiom of all reference librarians that you don't have to know everything if you know where to find it.

For your peace of mind, I will add that I 'found' very early on, that if you invest your own money without doing your own due diligence, you are not investing at all.  You are gambling.  This is why, although Porte has the same amazing track record with biopharms and FB had with builders that you do with metals, I never tried to follow either.  There, I was gambling (if I followed FB) and simply burning my money if I followed Porte.  With you, I actually end up with small amounts of diversification and profits.  If you haven't discussed it, I don't even consider it.  

I appreciate your willingness to share your knowledge with the rest of us, but I would not put the burden on you of thinking that you are picking my investments.  That is my responsibility.  To do otherwise  is not fair to anyone on TMF. 

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#12) On September 19, 2012 at 3:50 PM, motleyanimal (35.65) wrote:

I'm loving BRD this week.

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#13) On September 19, 2012 at 5:39 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.52) wrote:



My patience had quite honestly worn thin, so it couldn't have come at a better time.

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#14) On September 19, 2012 at 7:57 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Brigus looks good... I can't wait for the Grey Fox resource to come out. Kimber also still looks good here...waiting on that resource update as well.

One gold stock that hasn't done much lately is Magellan Minerals  but I am still bullish!

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#15) On September 19, 2012 at 8:08 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.52) wrote:

As you know SN, I don't love Magellan. I wish you luck with it, but I haven't been too impressed over the years. That said, all legitimate explorers are bound to experience some sort of surge in this rally. :)

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#16) On September 19, 2012 at 8:10 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Also what are your thoughts on the Met coal market right now? Do you see prices bouncing back in the short term because of all the worldwide easing that was just announced ?


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#17) On September 19, 2012 at 8:47 PM, kdakota630 (28.87) wrote:


Regarding your comment from #5 mentioning Sandstorm(s) being part of your core holdings, any chance you could provide a top 10 list of your core holdings? 

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#18) On September 19, 2012 at 9:32 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.52) wrote:

Because I typically hold 80-100 equities at any given time, I consider all of my top 20 positions core holdings.

I think I share plenty of information about my holdings as it is, and in any event the list gets rearranged (tweaked, let's say) so frequently that It's a moving target. I'll pass, if that's ok.

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#19) On September 19, 2012 at 9:42 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

I could probably guess your top 5... :-)

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#20) On September 19, 2012 at 10:42 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.52) wrote:

Received the following in an e-mail from Pilot Gold's VP for Corporate Affairs:

 I am currently in Turkey at TV Tower. More assays to come as we will be drilling until the end of December so expect strong news flow. We'll also add 4th rig in the coming weeks.

Also on the docket is the final results from 6 holes at Kinsley and the PEA on Halilaga.

Nice to have some momentum in the stock AND the markets.

... I think we'll hit the $200 million cap sooner than expected.


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#21) On September 20, 2012 at 10:23 AM, kdakota630 (28.87) wrote:


True, you do share a lot, and fair enough.

There are just so many that you mention that for someone who doesn't have time to follow as many companies as you, it's easier to know which ones are your favourite ten or so, so we can focus on which of those we like.

I respect your mining company analyzing ability, so I'm more than happy to whittle my choices to your top 10.  And yes, I constantly reference your (and speedy's) yearly top 10 lists for ideas.


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#22) On September 21, 2012 at 6:46 PM, ChrisGraley (28.49) wrote:

Any opinions on Claude reasearch Chris? Looks too good to be true for me and I feel like I am missing something.

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#23) On September 22, 2012 at 1:54 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.52) wrote:

Hi Chris,

Assuming you meant to type Claude Resources, I do have a strongly favorable opinion of the stock, which is why it's currently my 4th largest holding. :)

See my comments on Claude beneath this article:

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#24) On September 23, 2012 at 6:55 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

On September 19, 2012 at 2:46 PM, Mary953 (59.49) wrote:



I seem to be starting over in most areas of investing after being away from the computer and most of everything else for most of the year."


I am not sure how familiar you are with P. M. "Streamers" so here is a "link" for you:

How a Commodity Stream Works


September 2012

Fool on,



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#25) On September 24, 2012 at 12:39 AM, msubulldogs (< 20) wrote:

Hi,  TMFSinchiruna,


I really enjoy your blogs and have benefitted in particular from your calls on SLW and PPP. I have been thinking of balancing my portfolio a little more evenly between gold and silver and need to add a few more gold companies. I already have holdings in AUQ, EGO, PPP, and PZG. I am planning to add IAG and SAND, but wonder on your thoughts about COLUF versus PVG versus BRD and Sabrina (?) Am I missing any here? I prefer adding micro/small companies over large caps.


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#26) On September 25, 2012 at 7:40 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.52) wrote:


Sabina is by far my favorite out of the last 4 you mentioned. 

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#27) On September 25, 2012 at 9:41 AM, msubulldogs (< 20) wrote:

Thanks, TMFSinchiruna.


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#28) On September 27, 2012 at 2:44 PM, danablanca (< 20) wrote:

Hello Sinch,

 I own BRD, had spoken to you in Nov. 2011 was considering selling 1/2 as I was growing weary, I was in at $1.58 per share.  I didn't and instead doubled down in Apri at .72 per share bring my total cost down to $1.15 per share.  I haven't seen you talk about them much lately and was wondering what you think abou the current price getting back over $1 per share and what if any thoughts you have on when they might achieve the $4 price target or if they will.  At this point I'm looking to your for some guidance as this is a greatly written about stock by other anaylsts.


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#29) On September 28, 2012 at 11:08 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.52) wrote:

I have grown weary myself of the opportunity cost represented by the amount of time spent waiting for Brigus shares to appreciate while so many other stocks outperform. I have reduced my allocation in recent weeks, though it is still a fairly large holding for me. I no longer have anything even remotely resembling a $4 price target on the shares. I'll probably reduce my allocation further near $1.30 or so, and perhaps retain the remainder as a long-term play for Grey Fox. Even with $2,000 gold, I think we'll be lucky to see $2 or $2.50. 

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#30) On September 29, 2012 at 12:22 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:  



Just saying......

 Long and Strong Brigus. 




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#31) On September 30, 2012 at 11:09 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.52) wrote:

Because it remains a core holding, clearly I remain quite bullish on the shares. I have visited the mine twice, and know the operations quite thoroughly. I think it is likely to offer terrific long-term upside, but at the moment the list of companies poised to offer superior returns appears to be expanding. The stated near-term production goal of 25,000 ounces per quarter is an aggressive one, and any failure to meet that goal in a timely way, given the company's trailing record, is not likely to be well received. So it's a great long-term value play with some potential for near-to-medium-term execution risk. 

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#32) On September 30, 2012 at 12:31 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:


Silver Wheaton Closes Acquisition Of Precious Metals Streams From Hudbay's 777 Mine And Constancia Project


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#33) On September 30, 2012 at 12:52 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

 Sinchi wrote: "So it's a great long-term value play with some potential for near-to-medium-term execution risk." 


Whew.. My preception was that you were selling out your position. 


I am under a little pressure.  #4 has been throwing funds at me to invest for her.   


I agree 100% BRD shouldn't be at the price they are now but, I have a good sized position so, I am just holding "pat". I am primarily building  positions in a .04 cent non P. M. stock, HUSIF & Aurcana. 



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