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The "top fool" spot is getting volatile! Congrats vanamode, i mean ultralong, i mean...

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September 29, 2009 – Comments (26)

Congratulations to Vanamode for joining the list of people who have been "Top Fool".

Just this year we've seen Everyday (most of the time, it seems), GMX, Ultralong, and now Vanamode (and I may be missing some).

Anyway, for the moment its Vanamode.  So congrats

26 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 29, 2009 at 11:30 AM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

and I may be missing some

You are missing portefeuille6. This "accuracy" thing is simply ridiculous. A list of the "top20 as to score points" is here. If a player is not in the "Top 10% in terms of appearing on other players' favorite lists" he is not on that list. That is list is "less volatitile".

 



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A look at the top 10 players and the direction of the market

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1. EverydayInvestor – Everyday closed out most of his positions back in April/May. It looks as though he’s been taking a wait and see approach on the direction of the market. He’s been able to maintain his CAPS lead despite the fact that some players who bet on a bull market have made some large advances.

2. Vanamonde – Vanamonde has remained largely bullish although he did close out most of his re-thumbed ultrashort ETF’s back in late May/early June. He’s sticking with individual companies now – all of them green-thumbed. This guy is very good at picking stocks – very few of his wins come from red thumbing pink sheet and OTC stocks. Most of the picks he makes can be done in the real market.

3. Ultralong – Ultralong started his portfolio here in CAPS around the low of the market back in March with (you probably guessed it by now) mostly ultralong ETF positions. Although he remains long term bullish – he went short term bearish late July. He even started red-thumbing his Ultralong positions, This probably cost him his #1 ranking in CAPS.

4. BravoBevo – Bravo continues to make his picks of pink sheet and OTC stocks as usual and does not seem to care about the direction of the market. This approach has paid off very well in CAPS and should continue to keep him in the top spots. Since he is both long and short – market direction does not phase him.

5. BullmarketN09 -  although very bullish earlier in the year – he’s pared his holdings considerably. He closed a lot of red-thumbed Ultrashort positions in May and July.

6. tenmiles – tenmiles is another excellent stock picker in the CAPS game. Personally I use some of his ideas for my real stock portfolio. Tenmiles has pretty much a 50/50 mix of long/shorts and does not seem to be trying to guess the direction of the market. This strategy should keep him in the top ten for a long time.

7. bullishbabo – bullishbabo recently closed out a lot of his red-thumbed ultrashort postions in late August.  He is maintaining a pretty even mix of long/short picks now.

8. portefeuille6 – port is another fantastic stock picker. He remains largely bullish with nearly all outperform picks. Mostly pharma stocks and commodities. Not sure what strategy differences there are in his portfolios. This is another player I like to follow for some ideas in my real world stock picks.

9. portefeuille – see above.

10. chk999 - chk999 recently red-thumbed a lot of ultrashort stocks. I guess he is expecting the market to run much higher. This is a risky move but could pay off if the market runs higer.

...

translator999 - translator999 remains overwhemingly bullish with his picks. Another excellent stock picker with good timing. His portfolio was started during the Nov 2008 lows. Amazingly he has acheived this high score without the use of leveraged ETF's or pink sheet/OTC stocks. 

...

fransgeraedts - fransgeraedts has a mix of long/short positions but has recently turned more bearish. frans picked up some ultrashort ETF's recently suggesting that he thinks the market is going down.  

...

AndreyLikesMTL - Andrey has some impressive numbers on his picks - his average pick score is around 57!! He remains largely bullish with his picks. He keeps a large percentage of ADR's in his portfolio suggesting he thinks the global economy will outperform US. Another excellent stockpicker.

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some "sector champions" (from here)
 
Metals and Mining
foolsmethrice 4,350.31
translator999 3,350.45
mgiv 3,304.82
andreylikesmtl 2,876.47
tempttempt 2,718.98
number1cramerfan 2,130.95
 
Biotechnology
portefeuille 2,687.12
zzlangerhans 1,891.70
usubanas 1,781.59
 
Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment
jogafra 1,290.26
 
Capital Markets
bravobevo 1,035.16
 
Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels
venividiveci 2,767.27
baseballdude 2,074.39
tmfeldrehad 1,993.47
bravobevo 1,571.84
 
Commercial Banks
portefeuille9 2,223.15
econosurfer 2,085.82
fransgeraedts 1,931.05
portefeuille3 1,794.38
ooji 1,530.99
 
Thrifts and Mortgage Finance
abitare 1,240.27
d1david 1,183.83

Hotels, Restaurants and Leisure
bravobevo 2,005.35

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#2) On September 29, 2009 at 11:31 AM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

That is list is

That list is

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#3) On September 29, 2009 at 11:36 AM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

porte6 made "top fool"?  i missed that one.

congratulations!

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#4) On September 29, 2009 at 11:49 AM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

Thanks, but that whole ranking system is a joke due to the "accuracy" issue. The only "meaningful" "title" is #1 as to score points (bravobevo holds that title for quite a while now). I am trying to decrease the volatility of my score point curve but I think I will never reach the "steadiness" of his curve due to my inclination towards "outperform" calls on high beta stocks and my long "holding period". And I mostly refrain from this "OB/PK low volume and low market capitalisation" stuff. You just can't have it all.

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#5) On September 29, 2009 at 11:52 AM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

"Sector championships" are nice as well. I am not sure I ever held the "biotech" title. Maybe I did a few weeks ago.

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#6) On September 29, 2009 at 11:57 AM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

... and "score leaderships" for individual stocks/funds are nice!

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#7) On September 29, 2009 at 12:11 PM, SolarisKing (< 20) wrote:

Accuracy is all important because this is a stock rating site.

If you want to play a 'money' site,, there are plenty. Try WallStreetSurvivor.

Not that i mean fools should leave the site, just that this is a stock rating site. If we want to improve the rating system, find ways to increase the accuracy of the accuracy component.
   One idea i've had, is to make your accuracy of your timeframe more important. Then fools would not be as free to say whatever they like and not stick to it. Many fools don't even click the timeframe, and close '5yr' picks after 7 days.
   That way, we could have short term 'buy' ratings, and long term 'buy' ratings.

-solaris

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#8) On September 29, 2009 at 12:23 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

Accuracy is all important

The "caps" game version of "accuracy" certainly is not.

a good post on the "accuracy issue": Don't pay too much attention to CAPS rankings.

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#9) On September 29, 2009 at 12:24 PM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

solaris, I don't think enforcing a time period is necessarily a good idea.

for example, I think i put ASH as a 5 year hold when I rec'd it in January...  but it has already quadrupled from then (and roughly 6-7x from my real life cost average).  If that sucker goes to 60 i'm outa here, and if the markets buying spree continues that could happen long before 5 years.

you have to allow people a chance to change their minds on timeframe.

I have come to respect, after reading various peoples commentaries, that the CAPs game rating deal isn't meant to reflect actual investment skill or returns.  I get that they are trying to rank stocks.

However, a very negative aftermath of that is that here on the CAPs game blogs, persons with active interest in the game and interest in manipulating it (like shorting the same stock 10 times) get high ranks, which causes blog readers to consider them "smart" or "wise" when this is so clearly not always the case.

 

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#10) On September 29, 2009 at 12:27 PM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

porte...  the volatility of your method -vs- Bravos (who ive never looked at, so I don't konw what he/she does) is definitely a challenge if your goal is to catch up.

Maybe you should close picks you think are temporarily extended and re-open them after a pullback or something???  Maybe you already do, I don't know.

I'm going to stick with a strategy similar to my real life moves here on the CAPs game CAPs ranking be damned.  The stocks I have open right now are the stocks that I'd be a willing buyer of in real life... And I think thats how I'm going to keep it.

So if anybody wanders by and sees my picks they can maybe get a glimpse of what I'm thinking in real life.

Maybe I should go green-thumb RIMM...???

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#11) On September 29, 2009 at 12:35 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

CAPs ranking be damned.

I like that attitude.

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On May 15, 2009 at 3:26 PM, camistocks (90.64) wrote:

So this is it... We worship the top tens and feel good... Americans love top tens...

Nobody cares about interesting blogs.

But hey we've got this nice guy called gmx... He continues to separate you from your money since early April... but still everybody loves him... ah well

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#8) On June 01, 2009 at 8:04 PM, camistocks (83.52) wrote:

Portefeuille - well yeah I was a bit frustrated that my blogs "only" get 15+ recs, while others who are still in college get a much higher rating. Or maybe I just should become a "feeder blogger" who is linking to other blogs not on CAPS and I will receive 15+ recs for doing nothing.  But I guess this is how it's got to be...

Great performance by your players! Personally I have never looked at CAPS as a game but to see if I can outperform the market over the long term. And maybe outperform most players too hehehe! Hey I was the top 10 for a day a year ago but fell back to a score of 2 during the crash in October... Yes it's probably a game... ;-)

 

awalleijr - hey I'm glad I called him a nice guy. Because his tender reply was that I am a "dirty liar". Now just imagine if I had called him a 20 year old college kid...

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#12) On September 29, 2009 at 12:47 PM, Bludgeoner (< 20) wrote:

Porte: you are the most solipsistic person on this site

Get over yourself

...

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#13) On September 29, 2009 at 12:57 PM, leohaas (31.08) wrote:

Bludgeoner:

Stop using difficult words!

Congrats to all top fools!

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#14) On September 29, 2009 at 12:57 PM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

solipsistic is a great word.

good scene from one of my favorite movies - "the tao of steve" - involves solipsistic.

i'm afraid that in real life i can be a bit of a solipsistic snob when it comes to intellectual arguments, but thats only because i'm always right.  (that was a joke)

This post is not agreeing with bludgeoner or insulting porte, just seeing "solipsistic" sparked soem memories 

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#15) On September 29, 2009 at 1:08 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

A friend of mine has written a book on solipsism (no link since according to him he only knows around 10 people. The number of authors of books on solipsism that "know around 10 people" should be high enough to keep my anonymity safe ...).

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#16) On September 29, 2009 at 1:18 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

I "developed" the idea of solipsism when I was about 5 years old (maybe earlier, my memory is somewhat fuzzy) and found out later in school that most boys in my class had developed some basic version of solipsism at the age of around 5. That may be county specific, Germany is sometimes called the country of poets and thinkers (Land der Dichter und Denker). I never asked any girls about it ...

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#17) On September 29, 2009 at 1:40 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

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#15) On July 18, 2009 at 12:51 AM, checklist34 (99.90) wrote:
...
I also have a spot of casino stocks, some newspapers (I bought a big position of GCI that day, been thinking long and hard about digging into MNI and LEE over the weekend as well), and chemicals.  No retailers right now that I can think of,only smallamounts of REITs, and a fair bit of natural gas and aluminum stocks.

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(from here

Do you still have those GCI shares? GCI is currently at ca. $11.88.



enlarge

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#18) On September 29, 2009 at 2:39 PM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

long lee, mni, and GCI.  no hedges and haven't trimmed a single share of the newspaper guys. 

besides ASH, GCI was the easitest call I've come across to date.  I took a nice position, but...  I didn't jump in with all 3 feet and make it one of my biggest.  I bought a big stake at like $3.19, and then it took off and my psychological problems with chasing a shooting star kicked in and I didn't buy more.  Mistake in retrospect, I'm working on those problems.

ACAS was my 2nd (GCI 3rd) time I really thought "oh fer petes sake, this is too easy".  And ACAS has been a huge winner (i'm now out of the majority of my stake and then some)...  but ACAS I got wrong.  I was not right.  Management was not on top of things, a bottom was nowhere near in in March, the covenants didn't get worked out and probably won't on favorable terms, and all of that.  So a huge winner in terms of % return, but parts of my thesis were wrong.  (parts of it were also very right).

The fourth time I got that (really?  this is clearly mispriced) feeling was with RJET after winning frontier, and this time I jumped in with all 3 feet.  I'm way up on it (cost avg is 6's) but ...  at the same time its a darn big position.

I will, sometime in my life, get one wrong and pay for it.  So far i'm 2.5/3 and won big on all 3 "obvious" calls.  RJET is looking so far so neutral (stock is up but no real news or clarity).

We'll see.

I like being long newspapers today.  

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#19) On September 29, 2009 at 2:48 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

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#20) On September 29, 2009 at 2:50 PM, Tastylunch (29.33) wrote:

dangit I sold GCI way too soon

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#21) On September 29, 2009 at 3:00 PM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

don't worry tasty, i forgot to rec it in the caps game, lol

lee must have hit some kind of huge short position and forced it out, ...  the squeeze was on

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#22) On September 29, 2009 at 3:41 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Just let me know if you need me to recommend or red thumb something... apparently anytime I do that I can improve or demolish the 5 star system by 1-2 stars in either direction =) j/k

UltraLong

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#23) On September 29, 2009 at 6:59 PM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

lol ultra

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#24) On September 29, 2009 at 11:28 PM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

so, ahem, porte, back to the topic earlier at hand.

it is, I fear, true that i've been called solipsistic, or a narcissist, or worse, sometimes its not even creative.

this usually has come from women I liked, loved, was thinking about liking or loving, or didn't like or love anymore.  

After they ask me where I think the relationship is going and I stubbornly refuse to give an answer thats less than blindly honest and say something like

"i really like you but life is too long to predict that kind of thing" or

"who can say, hopefully upstairs in a few minutes"

or

"frankly i think we don't get along very well and lifes to short to really mess around with a situation like that"

or

occasionally

"insert someting rather unelegant here<.  

I got a black eye once after a solipsism accusation, ... ahem.  told my college buddies thatI got in a fight at the bar.  ahem. 

don't read this, buddies.  but if you do now you know the truth.

 

alas, yet I press on.  onward and sideways, I always say.

 

 And last but not least in this relatively unhelpful with respect to investing post:  there is a large puddle of blood on my laptop and my arm has blod smeared everywhere, but no wound is apparent after washing it all up.  I mean no wound at all.  Sorry to gross everybody out but thats really weird.

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#25) On September 29, 2009 at 11:39 PM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

in fact the most recent of these was one of the most colorful yet.  And, now, folks, I am not making light of the feelings of others, and I am not acting cavalier and saying that a sudden barrage of verbal abuse from someone once cared about doesn't sting...  but after the 10th time or so you sort of learn to accept it and move on.

the most recent one of those went a little something like this

"checklist, do you ever think about settling down with me?"

"frankly, no, you just aren't a reliable person and sometimes you are almost flaky and I just can't see that working out"

"flaky, what is that supposed to mean?"

"last week you said you couldn't see me anymore because you were thinking about getting back together with your ex fiancee because he asked and I said ok.  That was Monday.  On Thursday, which is today, you are asking me this.  Also it usually takes you about a day to reply to a text or phone call."

"you think you're so much better than everybody"

"i don't at all believe me, I piss everybody off.  but i'm emminently aware of my flaws and don't think they don't pain me.  but i do reply to calls and texts"

"you're just insecure and scared of women"

"sometimes that would be simpler, but i don't think thats quite it"

"you're so narcissitic, just such an ass sometimes"

"at least i'm honest and a really good driver"

"well lets talk about this at least"

"oh, I don't know, lets just not, i'll go sleep at Jeffs, he has some rum"

"how do you know he has rum?"

"i just texted and asked him"

 

there are times I wonder about all this.  She has a pHD in microbiology.  Don't ever think smart or even "independent" avoids this type of thing at all.  I dated the president of the local colleges feminist union club thingie when I was a student there, she was the worst one.  (black eye, stole my favorite shirt and dumped coffee on my new sheets and told everybody a whole lot of mean things about me.).

If any of the ladies of CAPs care to explain why - and I honestly have no clue here and I really don't understand it and i'm really not judging - relationships seem to have only two possible endings from a girls perspective

-happily ever after

-checklist is an atomic bomb of a bad person, if even that good

I'd love to hear it. 

I'm dramatizing of course, but not entirely.

 

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#26) On September 30, 2009 at 12:57 AM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

i said "I wanna shine like the eye of Orion, but I drove my soul into a black hole"

she said "thats a wonderful way to wake me.  But you weren't so nice last night, you're such an asshole when you're drunk"

i said "at least i'm ok in the morning"

 

 

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