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portefeuille (99.66)

the reason of CAPS

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October 03, 2013 – Comments (25)

It is hard to say whether CAPS has had a net positive or a net negative effect on the finances of its players. If you look at the number of recommendations a typical "The p/e of the S&P is above 100" post got in 2009 and at the fanaticism of the gold mining experts in 2010/11 you might fear that quite a few players have lost quite a bit, but then again you had people like checklist34 telling you how cheap everything was in 2009 and quite a few brought up the idea that maybe gold is just a shiny metal ;)

In the end maybe the largest impact it will have had will be the bringing together of people that create value outside of CAPS.

Take for example me ;)

In 2010 someone suggested 4 of the "top CAPS players" getting together to manage a virtual fund in CAPS, that maybe could one day be turned into a fool.com fund or newsletter or whatever. Well, I was one of those chosen to participate, no idea who came up with the idea and who did the player selection.

After about a week, I was kicked out because "I traded too much". Ironically my trades had done best over that period ;) and soon after the other 3 lost interest and that was it. Well, almost. 

I actually liked the idea of a virtual fund and while I had seen little value in the collaboration I continued my part of the fund, posting all trades and a few statistics every now and then in blog posts. Most casual observers of those "fund trades" will probably have wondered what all that was about, maybe thinking it was the work of someone quickly moving towards the more interesting part of the autism spectrum ;)

Every now and then you could see me whining about how I was wasting my talent ;)

Well, towards the end of 2012 zzlangerhans must have had enough of that obscure CAPS side show I was producing and offered my a job as co-manager of his biopharma portfolio. Like my "old fund" all trades are published close to real-time, only that now the trades are non-virtual. You can follow them via #zzporte on twitter.

If we have a decent day tomorrow we will end the week being in the green by over $100k, with over $600k now invested in a bunch of biopharma stocks.

Not sure whether that makes a great story yet, but if TKMR, a company we own close to 0.1% of, continues its rally, or we simply manage to grow the portfolio for a few years I think it may turn out to be one :)

25 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 03, 2013 at 11:36 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.61) wrote:

Porte...

You Sir indeed Rock!!!

 

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#2) On October 04, 2013 at 11:28 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Thanks! Time will tell :)

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#3) On October 04, 2013 at 2:47 PM, JohnCLeven (76.01) wrote:

@portefuille

I've seen you post many times on this site about how good your results have been, and how everyone should follow you fund on twitter.

Could you briefly elaborate on your general investing philosophy, and the criteria you use for buy/sell decisions. I just skimmed your blogs from the past year, and didn't find much on your actual investing/trading philosophy or methods.

Thanks!

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#4) On October 04, 2013 at 3:54 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#3 It is mostly based on fundamental analysis and to some degree is "news driven". I have specialised on biopharma stocks a few years ago. If ypu don't like my track record, there is little reason to follow me :)

 

part of my track record :)



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#5) On October 04, 2013 at 3:56 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#4 Ok, maybe another reason to "follow me" is that quite a few people that know what they are doing follow me. So you can follow someone the experts are following ;)

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#6) On October 04, 2013 at 4:03 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#3,4,5 Another great reason to follow #zzporte is the fact that my collaboration partner is zzlangerhans.

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#7) On October 04, 2013 at 7:55 PM, JohnCLeven (76.01) wrote:

Do you have any blog posts that give detailed examples of your fundamental analysis?

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#8) On October 04, 2013 at 8:12 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

No, I don't think those exist.

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#9) On October 04, 2013 at 11:11 PM, JohnCLeven (76.01) wrote:

Why not?

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#10) On October 04, 2013 at 11:17 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I had no desire to write them. I think you should just not follow me ;)

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#11) On October 05, 2013 at 12:01 AM, JohnCLeven (76.01) wrote:

Here's what I think, I think "the reason of CAPS" is to participate in a community that helps spread investing wisdom through discussion of strategies and providing feedback to other members. This helps us all become better investors.

My question to you is this: if you constantly post blogs about how high your score is, and how everyone should follow you on twitter, then why can't you at least provide a blog or 2 that offers insight into how you go about your investing progress? That shouldn't be too much to ask, right? ;)

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#12) On October 05, 2013 at 12:46 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I would rather cut back the number of my promotional blog posts :)

As I mentioned above I think there is value in simply countering others, like the "bears" in 2008/2009 or the gold/silver freaks in 2010/2011. I was just trying to let people consider that maybe a biotech company could be a better investment than a Mexican silver mine from the 16th century.

I have little ambition in the educational field.

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#13) On October 05, 2013 at 12:48 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I also really hate discussions ;)

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#14) On October 09, 2013 at 11:48 AM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

Hey Hans - I got your email - on the update - very very nice!

I am in the process of a transition - as things settle down - I will reach out to you - and see if you guys would be interested in taking a contribution and the legalities etc.

Also I want to talk about downside risk management - and what thoughts you have on that.

Best

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#15) On October 09, 2013 at 12:33 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#14 Right now our downside protection is our cash position of around 30%. A nice cushion on days like the last two.



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Well, TF also has short positions, but they have nothing to do with the zzporte collaboration.

You will have to discuss the possibility of contributing capital or anything else with TF. Right now he is the only investor. Nice to hear that someone like you would consider investing if zzporte were a real fund!

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#16) On October 11, 2013 at 1:32 PM, roofman6 (< 20) wrote:

If I may add my two cents here... I've been investing with p1 and p2 some time now, and doing quite well. I'm not interested in their investing strategies, just their records, the length of time that positions are held, and the fact that they don't short stocks.

One downside of CAPS is that every position is equal. I looked briefly at the "fund" and there of course, there are no rules. Positions are built on when prices are down and profits are taken when prices are high... the way many big investors work... it just doesn't fit my small portfolio or my style of investing.

Another possible downside of CAPS is that a player has no "skin in the game: I say possible downside... CAPS is a game but this could be a good thing. Stocks can be overstudied... and when you study stocks you are competing directly with the professionals... teams of experts who because of the volume of their trades, set the prices. Studying stocks is a wonderful and noble strategy, but one that I have done very poorly at.

I like to think that p1 and p2 are managed by someone who loves and devours biopharma, and a few other specialties. Someone who has developed a feel and a passion for what the challenges and the payouts are. CAPS gives him a way to demonstrate this passion. I for one, appreciate the fact that he is willing to share his success and I appreciate CAPS for making this possible. Thank you.

roofman6

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#17) On October 11, 2013 at 1:43 PM, TMFBlacknGold (98.65) wrote:

I love following #zzporte on Twitter. Keep up the market-beating work!

--Maxxwell 

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#18) On October 15, 2013 at 12:26 AM, AndrewGreenBull (98.84) wrote:

Always hang around MF for targets, and your CAPS is one of my favorite. 

Your fund idea sounds great and fun, hope that your guys doing well.

TKMR doesn't look good at this price though, they are planning to start some new trials early next year, and 40M in cash definitely not enough. The management may think about public offering at this moment, just my two cents. I set a limit price of $10.98 to red thumb it.

 

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#19) On October 16, 2013 at 6:51 PM, mhy729 (30.47) wrote:

Hey portefeuille, I don't know how you do it, but you have done quite well with the biopharm trade.  Congrats!

I too have done quite well with TKMR...I think we may have started buying in at around the same time (back in 2011 for me, accumulating on the way done hehe).

What are your thoughts on TKMR going forward, have you started locking in any profits? 

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#20) On October 16, 2013 at 7:26 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#19 No, not really. Today (Thursday) will be interesting do to the just announced offering. If you want to take some profit you might get a decent price a few days after the offering when the dust settles ...

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#21) On October 16, 2013 at 7:26 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

do to

due to

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#22) On October 16, 2013 at 7:28 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I don't know how you do it

Neither do I ;)

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#23) On October 16, 2013 at 7:43 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

update.



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#24) On February 04, 2014 at 8:44 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

also see this post.

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#25) On February 11, 2014 at 1:34 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

The zzporte portfolio.



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