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The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated: signed, The American Shopper

October 29, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: SCC

I am the American Shopper and I am alive.  But, I thought I was the exception.  I thought this was the year/quarter that the retail consumer would disappear, but yesterday, I saw some activity that shocked me.  I thought, "of all times, who would spend big bucks on Halloween costumes?" Even I, was considering making them for my kids, or using old ones.  I ventured out to the Halloween store when it first opened, thinking they would have a really bad year and all of the stuff would be marked down 90% the day before Halloween.  Well, today, it's almost all gone and the shelves were stocked even more than in years' past.   Antidontal, I know, but it shows that people who's source of income is the same, (teens, kids and young professionals) who have no experience in SID (sudden income loss) will continue to behave like that income will continue forever!   And spend! 

I also know that some people who wisely understand that no income is guaranteed, and a pink slip may come to an inbox near them, also go out and splurge on the things they will need, if they don't have income in the future.  "Bunker Behavior" 

Then, there's me, with an two-fold increase in my Starbucks visits, due to the recent airings on public TV the openings of the Australian, Asian and European markets! 

So, here's what I think.  The retail short holders already anticipate the choking economy and maybe people halted durable goods in Oct, but it's baked in.  Maybe now, things will seem to go back to  more normal and layoffs will not increase and this holiday season will not be as bad as expected.  I think it won't be great, by any means, but not as bad as expected. 

So, the question is:  Layoffs.  What do you think?  Increase or level off?