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XMFSinchiruna (27.52)

The Shocking 15-Year Bear Market for Gold Stocks

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43

April 27, 2012 – Comments (23) | RELATED TICKERS: GG , EXK , RBY

I hope this makes it even clearer, perhaps for an expanding audience of bargain hunters, just how phenomenally undervalued these miners are here.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/04/27/the-shocking-15-year-bear-market-for-gold-stocks.aspx

 

23 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 27, 2012 at 11:05 PM, Option1307 (29.82) wrote:

Very interesting chart, +1.

I've never believed in metals as strongly as you have and sold out of the vast majority of my gold/silver early last year, I felt more comfortable taking the large profits off the table so to speak.

However, with all that being said I have to say that I'm starting to take notice of Goldcorp at these levels (<$40). I don't expect it to be a mutlibagger like many of the juniors etc out there but it honestly is starting to look relatively cheap and a decent risk/reward at these levels. I don't encessarily think gold is going to rise that much more but I do agree with you that mining stocks have taken a beating of late.

Again, good thoughts thanks for sharing.

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#2) On April 29, 2012 at 10:10 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

 

http://www.yukon-nevadagold.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=519992&_Type=&_Title=Focus-on-Resource-Conversion-Proves-Successful-at-Jerritt-Canyon-Nevada

April 23, 2012

Focus on Resource Conversion Proves Successful at Jerritt Canyon, Nevada “Yukon-Nevada Gold Corp. (TSX: YNG) (Frankfurt Xetra Exchange: NG6) announces that proven and probable reserves at its 100% owned Jerritt Canyon operating gold mine in Elko County, Nevada, estimated at year-end 2011, have increased to 1,060,800 ounces of gold at a grade of 0.175 ounces of gold per ton (opt) or 6.00 grams of gold per tonne (gpt). These reserves are within a newly estimated measured and indicated resource of 2,319,200 ounces of gold at a grade of 0.189 opt (6.48 gpt). The inferred resource at Jerritt Canyon is an additional 748,400 ounces of Au at a grade of 0.182 opt (6.24 gpt). The attached tables summarize the newly calculated reserves and resources by area.”

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/80739--yukon-nevada-raises-jerritt-mine-reserve-estimate-48-to-1-1m-ounces-of-gold

4/23/12

Yukon-Nevada raises Jerritt mine reserve estimate 48% to 1.1M ounces of gold.

http://www.yukon-nevadagold.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=519992&_Type=&_Title=Focus-on-Resource-Conversion-Proves-Successful-at-Jerritt-Canyon-Nevada

 

April 23, 2012
Focus on Resource Conversion Proves Successful at Jerritt Canyon, Nevada  

http://www.yukon-nevadagold.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=515548&_Type=&_Title=Yukon-Nevada-Gold-Corp.-Announces-Year-End-Results-for-2011

March 30, 2012
Yukon-Nevada Gold Corp. Announces Year End Results for 2011

http://www.yukon-nevadagold.com/i/pdf/financials/Year-End-2011.pdf http://www.yukon-nevadagold.com/i/pdf/financials/2012-40F-YNG.pdf

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/companyOfficers?symbol=YNG.TO&WTmodLOC=C4-Officers-5

Sky

I still have some shares stuffed in the mattress.

 

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#3) On April 29, 2012 at 10:36 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

On April 27, 2012 at 11:05 PM, Option1307 (30.01) wrote:

 "However, with all that being said I have to say that I'm starting to take notice of Goldcorp at these levels (<$40)."

Option,

GG: P/E of  18.  Book value $26 - $27.  Bouncing around 52 week low.  Ample projects.  Relatively low cost producer.

I do not like to pay over $20 for a stock.  But, will make an exception here.  Probably buy around $30 – $32 if the drop continues.

But, here’s the problem.  Do I initiate a new position in GG or add to my SLW position if, both are trading within a few dollars of each other in the future?

I’ll probably go 80 – 20 SLW if, that's the case.

But, that’s just me.

Sky

I have some shares of SLW in my cookie jar between the Fig Newtons and Oreos.

 

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#4) On April 29, 2012 at 11:47 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.52) wrote:

Article included in Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily:

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/current-gold-demand-completely-unsustainable-without-sharply-higher-prices-eric-sprott-and-d

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#5) On April 29, 2012 at 3:47 PM, leohaas (31.73) wrote:

I think you are overestimating the potential for gold and silver miners. In particular, the conclusions you make based on the figure labeled "# of GoldGrams needed to purchase one XAU"

(not sure if I was able to paste the figure)

When taking a cursory look at the figure, you conclude that miners are very cheap. While doing that, you fail to look into why.

There is a good explanation for this effect. Demand for gold right now is for a significant part driven by those who think that the world as we know it is going to end. Those folks will only buy physical gold. They will not buy any paper investment that has correllation with the gold price, such as a miner stock. In other words: the lower the number of gold grams per XAU goes, the higher the impact of the Doomsday Preppers on the gold price.

In spite of my opinion on this effect, I remain long some of the mining stocks I bought partly based on your recommendations here on the Fool. Miners remain a compelling business, especially the best of them. Just not to the extent you expect.

 

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#6) On April 29, 2012 at 3:49 PM, leohaas (31.73) wrote:

OK, so the figure did not show up. Click here and then scroll a little to see it.

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#7) On April 29, 2012 at 4:53 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

re. #4

 "This is the second offering from Christopher Barker in less than a week. It was posted over at the Motley Fool website yesterday...and it's definitely worth reading.  The link is here

Included with an article from Sprott Asset Management, among others...   Bold  emphasis...

Great! 

Sky 

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#8) On April 29, 2012 at 5:16 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

On April 29, 2012 at 3:47 PM, leohaas (98.54) wrote:

 " Demand for gold right now is for a significant part driven by those who think that the world as we know it is going to end."

 " the lower the number of gold grams per XAU goes, the higher the impact of the Doomsday Preppers on the gold price."

You lost me when you started to “label” people.

“Dooms Day Preppers”?

“by those who think that the world as we know it is going to end.”?

Can’t you support your position without resorting to this?   There are many solid reasons people choose to invest in different asset classes.  Diversification, protection from inflation, etc.

This is an undisputable fact.

Sky 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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#9) On April 30, 2012 at 8:13 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.52) wrote:

Yeah leohaas, I think that counter-argument is uncharacteristically weak, and the simplistic labels employed only serve to weaken it further. You definitely overestimate the impact of supposed "Doomsday Preppers" on the gold price. If you consider that a primary source of bullion demand, than you misunderstand the true dynamics of the gold market in a very fundamental way.

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#10) On April 30, 2012 at 8:51 AM, Frankydontfailme (27.40) wrote:

Hehe, those pesky doomsday prepper central banks.

Ultimately, he's getting at the point that gold is money and everything else is a substitute. There's a reason central banks hold gold instead of copper or even gold miner stocks. Nonetheless, as gold stocks continue to be discounted relative to earnings they will become progressively better value plays. Value is value, doesn't matter if it's a gold miner or a utility.

Also, it looks like we're near an historic bottom, and gold miners are about to see some serious inflows.

Any favorites at these prices? I have orders in for AUY, EXK and am looking for any small pullback for sndxf and aunff. 

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#11) On April 30, 2012 at 9:33 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.52) wrote:

Franky,

I listed more than a dozen favorites in a recent blog post if you look back a little.

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#12) On April 30, 2012 at 4:43 PM, ubernut (< 20) wrote:

Orko Silver corp is up 21% today and 41% since last Thursday.  I've been looking for news to account for the move and I haven't found anything yet.  Am I missing something? 

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#13) On April 30, 2012 at 6:41 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.52) wrote:

Likely seeing intense interest from potential suitors, and increased positioning for same. If volume is substantial, as I suspect it was, could be a suitor amassing a starter-position.

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#14) On May 02, 2012 at 7:22 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-area-unemployment-hits-record-092447530.html

Euro area unemployment hits record high

Euro area unemployment hits record high of 10.9 percent as recession, austerity bite

5/2/12

Sky

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#15) On May 03, 2012 at 12:52 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

NEWS

- Primero Announces strong 1Q earnings today, EPS 19 cents.(Still an insane bargain under $3, I was lucky to buy at $2.40).

- Shanghai Futures Exchange Receives Approval to Begin Trading SilverFutures  (Watch out Crimex!)

- Sandstorm Gold will announces earnings after the close today. I am expecting .02-.03 EPS with revenue near 12-15 million. And possibility an update on next aquisition. Expecting a small bump in share price tomorrow.

- A great day to own Brigus as well *Brigus Gold Corp Produced 7,088 Ounces Of Gold In April (on target for over 20,000 for 2Q).Holding strong at .85.

All this while the HUI is down 4 percent and gold is down as well. Hoping the recent outperformance of these select group of juniors continues!

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#16) On May 04, 2012 at 4:35 PM, OHGtop10 (< 20) wrote:

PPP moved up nicely today. I was starting to think that no amount of positive news would increase their share price. Also now they are able to sell 50 percent of their silver at market value instead of 4.08 through part of August 2012. (this is month earlier than they were able to do this last year per the conference call). This should increase their revenue in Q2 by about 20 million dollars at today's silver price. That is if they produce 1.33 million ounces again in the second quarter. They could produce a little less or more.  I don't want to get ahead of myself but I am hoping for 0.30 to 0.35 EPS in Q2 and Q3 and 0.20 again in Q4. That would make earnings per share about 1 dollar for the year. It should also give PPP enough capital to acquire an additional mine. I suggested they try to buy KBX on the cheap!! 

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#17) On May 04, 2012 at 4:56 PM, OHGtop10 (< 20) wrote:

KBX has a market Cap of 72.5 million . PPP I believe has 86 million and will have more by the end of the year. KBX is also a Canadian owned mining company like PPP that is based in Mexico about 350 miles from Primero's mine. I also like KBX for the same reason I like PPP and that is their cost to get gold out of the ground is cheap. Please correct me if I am wrong but I think they said their costs would be 150 dollars per ounce of gold.  I wouldn't even mind if costs were 300 to 400 per ounce.  But it helps me sleep to know even If gold drops to 1000 for some reason they can make money. If gold goes up they make more. 

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#18) On May 04, 2012 at 6:41 PM, johnybottom (< 20) wrote:

I need to delve into the PPP statement. My largest position, but I might put some more into it. 

 

Everything looks good for it. And even a little positive guidance on the tax issue would send shares sky high i think. 

 

Anyone hear anything from AZX? They were supposed to follow their NI with some additional drill results. I haven't seen them. 

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#19) On May 04, 2012 at 11:38 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://apogeesilver.com/

 

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/apogee-silver-ltd-announces-closing-c25-million-bought-deal-private-placement-including-tsx-venture-ape-1509476.htm

5/3/12

Apogee Silver Ltd. Announces Closing of C$25 Million Bought Deal Private Placement Including Exercise in Full of Over-Allotment Option and Sprott Resource Lending Partnership...

“We are delighted to welcome a dozen institutional investors as new shareholders of Apogee and we are pleased to report that Coeur D'Alene, which operates a successful silver/lead/zinc mine in Bolivia, participated in our private placement too.”

 

Sky

Long Apogee

 

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#20) On May 05, 2012 at 8:31 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

Tyhee Gold

Investors Presentation

March 2012:

http://www.tyhee.com/presentations/TyheeGoldMarch2012PDACweb.pdf

see page 28

Sky 

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#21) On May 05, 2012 at 8:36 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

On May 04, 2012 at 6:41 PM, johnybottom (49.28) wrote:

 "Anyone hear anything from AZX? They were supposed to follow their NI with some additional drill results. I haven't seen them. "

This is the latest I have:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aurizon-mines-ltd-results-marban-113000582.html

Aurizon Mines Ltd.: New Results at Marban Highlight Potential to Define High Grade Ore Shoots 4/26/12

 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aurizon-mines-ltd-higher-grade-113000634.html

Aurizon Mines Ltd.: Higher Grade Mineralization Discovered on the Heva and Hosco Zones at the Joanna Property

 

4/16/12

Sky 

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#22) On May 05, 2012 at 8:50 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

Johhny, I thought your post read "AZK".

 Just proves a person shouldn't "Drink and Post".  

 Be careful out there, kids.

:)

#  21 is for AZK not AZX.   

Sky 

I own a few shares of AZK and a ton of AZX.V

Johnny were you referring to AZX.AX, Auzex Resources?  I haven't looked at them.  I can if you want tommorow after I finish mowing Sinchi's lawn.

Sky

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinchi 

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#23) On May 07, 2012 at 4:04 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.52) wrote:

OHGtop10,

Nice thought regarding KBX as a nice fit for PPP. Sure would have me pumped, as those are my #3 and #4 positions overall.

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