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XMFSinchiruna (27.56)

The Slow Demise of the Almighty U.S. Dollar

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June 27, 2012 – Comments (22) | RELATED TICKERS: AUQ , EGO , SLW

Flabbergasted by the continuing rush into Treasuries and the implied lack of concern for the fundamental condition of the U.S. dollar, I penned this discussion to expose the deceptive nature of relative currency measures in a context of global competitive fiat currency devaluation and the growing specter of an essentially simultaneous easing event by the big four central banks.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/06/27/the-slow-demise-of-the-almighty-us-dollar.aspx

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

22 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 28, 2012 at 11:14 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.56) wrote:

Happy to grab Osisko shares under $7!!!

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#2) On June 28, 2012 at 2:15 PM, outoffocus (23.23) wrote:

Hey Chris,

Have you checked out "The Little Book of the Shrinking Dollar"?

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/the-little-book-of-the/743800

 

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#3) On June 28, 2012 at 2:32 PM, silverminer (30.62) wrote:

I haven't... thanks for the recommendation. I'll try to check it out.

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#4) On June 28, 2012 at 2:58 PM, outoffocus (23.23) wrote:

did the healthcare ruling spark the selloff in gold?

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#5) On June 28, 2012 at 4:04 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Sinch, wondering if I can get your thoughts on the junior silver miners.

Personally, after getting burned on Scorpio, even though I haven't sold, and now seeing Impact hit new lows after Q1 issues... I've started to shift my focus a bit. 

So I've been buying SLW '13 warrants and some call options as I feel they offer just as much leverage as a junior miner would. With perhaps less risk even. When the next run up in silver occurs, I want to make sure I have positions that correlate to that upswing. My fear is that production issues with some of the smaller miners could negate that.  

I've mentioned the SLW sept 2013 warrants in the video I did a while back. I feel this could easily be a triple. Between now and the expiry date, many things could happen. 

Of course, I still feel there is tremendous upside in companies like Impact and Scorpio, but it seems the risk is just not worth it anymore when there are majors like SLW and AG that have such impressive growth profiles, are better managed, hold less risk, etc.. I continue to own companies like Aurcana, GPL, Scorpio, etc. but with much more caution than I used to! 

Steve

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#6) On June 28, 2012 at 4:46 PM, pjani06 (29.19) wrote:

Sinch,

Maybe the US dollar (currency) cannot be devalued faster than the write-downs/defaults/and elimination of debt/loans.

Debts/loans such as lines of credit, various loans to businesses/individuals/governments.

Are you familiar with the trajectory of this debt/loan growth over the past decade and the related charts?

How possible is it that much more debt was issued then can be supported by current/future paying jobs, current/future company's sales, current/future incoming government revenues to pay the total of the loans?

if these can be paid, it'll be known over the next 2-3yrs, 5yrs, 10yrs as these loans are or are not being paid.

if in fact these loans on a systemic scale are still not yet fairly represented, then there will be continued pressure on the US currency and treasuries alike.

When a loan is written down (haircuts taken), that's an immediate destruction of currency, do that enough, and you have a previously thought "oversupply" of dollars to dissapear.  Suddenly there's a shortage of supply of the currency. 

Your thoughts?

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#7) On June 28, 2012 at 5:27 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.56) wrote:

SN, I've been shifting my holdings along similar lines, and consider it an appropriate adaptation to this painful collapse. I've been focusing recent purchases upon profitable producers and extremely well-cashed explorers (Sabina, etc.), and being very selective and conservative with purchases of deeply impaired players like Scorpio. I still own only a small sliver of Scorpio, and don't view it as one I would want to get aggressive with.

I bought some Osisko today... That felt very safe.  I added some TCK today. Added some Endeavour, and hoping to add First Majestic. SLW warrants are a great idea.

But I also continue to press conviction plays like Primero, Claude, Impact, etc. 

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#8) On June 28, 2012 at 5:40 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.56) wrote:

Pjan, too many conflated topics there to offer concise comments. I think you're crossing the topics of liquidity and money supply. There will he liquidity shocks in any deleveraging scenario, and central banks will intervene accordingly to prevent systemic freeze-up. Whether or not they will succeed 100% of the time is unknown.

 

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#9) On June 29, 2012 at 8:40 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

For what it is worth, I tripled my positions in FVGCF Fire River Gold & PTQMF  Petaquilla Minerals  this week.

http://www.firerivergold.com/s/Home.asp

 

http://www.firerivergold.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=533672&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Fire-River-Gold-Corp.-Appoints-Interim-President-CEO

R. David Russel:

 

Mr. Russell has over 33 years of experience in the mining industry including a variety of operating, executive and boards of director positions. Mr. Russell is the Chairman for Fire River Gold Corp. (FAU:TSX.V), Chairman of Pure Nickel (NIC:TSX), a Director for General Molybdenum (GMO:AMEX & TSX) and a Director of Central Asia Minerals and Resources (Plus Market UK: CMRP). Previously, Mr. Russell was the Founder, President, CEO and Director of the former Apollo Gold Corporation, (now Brigus Gold Corp. after the June 24, 2010, Apollo Gold and Linear Gold Merger), and the same for the predecessor company, Nevoro Gold from 1999 - 2002. From 1994 - 1999, Mr. Russell was Vice President and COO for Getchell Gold Corporation, a Nevada gold producer, with production of 200,000 ounces of gold. Getchell Gold was acquired by Placer Dome Inc. in 1999 for $1.1 Billion. Prior to working at Getchell, Mr. Russell was VP of US Operations for LAC Minerals Ltd. and, after their acquisition by Barrick Gold Corporation, Mr. Russell stayed on with Barrick Gold. Other companies Mr. Russell worked for included ASARCO, Hecla and Meridian Gold. Mr. Russell received a Bachelor of Science degree in Mining Engineering from the University of Montana at Montana Tech.

**

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/8816

 

Charles Oliver: Out of Africa, into Americas

TICKERS: ABX, BSX, CFO; C3T, FAU; FVGCF, G; GG, GUY, HOC, IMG; IAG, KGI, KSK, MNM, MUX, NG, OSK, RIO, SGR, SSP, SPR300, SAS, TXG

Source: Brian Sylvester of The Gold Report  (3/4/11

 

TGR: You also have a position in Fire River Gold Corp. (TSX.V:FAU; OTCQX:FVGCF). Why do you own shares in Harry Barr's company?

CO: We invested in Fire River Gold almost two years ago. I remember when Harry came in to talk to me in 2009, talking about an asset he bought from a company that was in financial distress. Many companies were caught off guard by the magnitude of the 2008 correction. 

TGR: Was he talking about St Andrews Goldfields Ltd. (TSX:SAS)?

CO: Yes. He managed to come up with $500,000 to buy the Nixon Fork Gold Project and plant. Harry bought those assets for a song. It's going to be small scale, but Fire River will be starting production in the next several months. It's got cash on the balance sheet, no debt and some of the highest-grade ore out there—it's nearly 1 oz./ton. And it's planned further drilling programs. 

TGR: Some of that is to better understand the geology of the deposit because St Andrews didn't really understand the deposit, so it got into some issues with the recovery circuit and dilution. 

CO: Yes, mining is a very tough business. You've got to find the gold, and then extract it economically—that's often quite a challenge. But Fire River has all the parts. It really comes down to execution now. 

TGR: Harry certainly has the financing connections and the experience to lure the kind of expertise needed to bring Nixon Fork to production. Another project in Alaska that you have a position in isKiska Metals Corp.'s (TSX.V:KSK) Whistler projec

**

http://www.firerivergold.com/i/pdf/FAU211211b.pdf

I have several pages if, you would like me to post more.

Sky

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#10) On June 29, 2012 at 8:53 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

PTQMF  Petaquilla Minerals   

 

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/13085

 

 

 TGR: Let's talk about some of the more junior miners.

CM: One of my favorite junior gold plays right now is a Canadian company with operations in Panama and development projects in Spain and Portugal called Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. (PTQ:TSX, PTQMF:OTCBB, P7Z:FSE). Its main deposit is the Molejon gold mine in Panama, which reached commercial production in 2010 and has been ramping up production via several mill expansions ever since. It has been completely overlooked by the market even though it has one of the best production growth profiles out there, courtesy of its recent acquisition of Iberian Resources Corp. in August 2011. 

In 2012, Petaquilla's production is projected to reach 100 Koz , 120 Koz in 2013 and nearly 250 Koz in 2015. This is excluding significant copper byproduct credits, which are forecast to reach 100 pounds per annum by 2015. Cash costs net of the company's silver and zinc credits were $557/oz in 2011 and are projected to remain between $500/oz and 600/oz going forward as silver credits will exceed 3 Moz. annually. The company also benefits from Panama's tax policy, giving Petaquilla a projected effective tax rate of 25%. Petaquilla is also a "special situation" at the moment, planning to spin out its wholly-owned infrastructure arm as an independent entity. Shareholders will receive one share for every four it holds prior to the spin-off date. I've modeled a net asset value on a fully diluted basis of over $3/share [using $1,600/oz Au, $2.50 Cu ~ discounted @ 15%], significantly higher than the current $0.42/share market price. 

The composition of a company's largest shareholders often says a lot about the prospects of a company. In this case, management owns more than 12%, followed by significant stakes by Sprott Asset Management, U.S. Global Investors and Libra Advisors. I've always considered having at least 5% management ownership a huge positive due to an obvious alignment of objectives, notably increasing shareholder value.  **

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/corporate-development-veteran-joins-petaquilla-minerals-ltd-in-key-role-2012-05-09-92310

5/9/12

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, May 09, 2012 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. ("Petaquilla" or the "Company") CA:PTQ 0.00%PTQMF -2.37% (frankfurt:P7Z) is pleased to announce that Dr. Andrew J. Ramcharan, Ph.D., P. Eng., has joined the Company as Executive Vice President - Corporate Development. Dr. Ramcharan, formerly with IAMGOLD Corporation as Manager - Corporate Development, is a vastly experienced and qualified Bay Street (Gold Miner-M&A) dealer. He has joined the Company's newly-formed Toronto office with the vision to grow the Company into a mid-tier gold producer through acquisitions and organic growth.

http://www.petaquilla.com/news/pdf/20120604-Corporate-Presentation.pdf

June 1 2012

Corporate Presentation

PDI spinout: pg 24 & 28 (By the end of 2012)

Financials periods ending:

http://www.petaquilla.com/finance/2012/PTQ_Consolidated_Financial_Statements_Q3_2012_FINAL.pdf  

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#11) On June 29, 2012 at 9:14 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

I like PM producers here, as well.  The P/Es are too compelling.

I've got one selling at 13 cents with a p/e of 5.6 I am ready to triple up on, soon.

That being said, I like "Streamers". They are the biggest position in my portfolios.

If SLW goes to around 20, I am piling in in a major way. At least tripling my position.

I already have too much of the Standstorms.... Watson is "The Man". I. M. O. 

Of course, second after Sinchi. 

As I've always felt, "Be greedy when others are fearful....... " 

:)

It's time to be "Long and Strong" and of course patient. 

Sky 

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinchi 

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#12) On June 29, 2012 at 9:20 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

Try this one:

http://www.petaquilla.com/news/pdf/20120628-Corporate-Presentation.pdf 

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#13) On June 30, 2012 at 11:58 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.56) wrote:

Sky... You're not spooked by the recent management exodus at Fire River? When I saw that, I breathed a sigh of relief that I no longer owned shares.

 http://www.firerivergold.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=532866&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Fire-River-Gold-Corp.-Accepts-Resignations-of-Senior-Management-and-Board-M...

 

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#14) On July 01, 2012 at 8:51 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

No. 

I think it is a positive for the stock.

I made sure my D. D. was current and bought some more shares.  I like:

1 ) The current (Temporary Chairman) Chairman’s background.  See #9, above

I feel he is qualified to find a good replacement.

2) They are a Producer.

http://www.firerivergold.com/s/NixonFork.asp?ReportID=508154&_Type=Nixon-Fork-Gold-Mine&_Title=Overview

3) Sprott Asset Management is a major shareholder

http://www.firerivergold.com/s/NixonFork.asp?ReportID=508154&_Type=Nixon-Fork-Gold-Mine&_Title=Overview

(see page 4)

There are negatives but, I feel the potential outweighs them, TODAY.  They are located in remote Alaska, everything needs to be flown in and out via cargo planes.

 I think they may be priced closer to an Explorer than Producer.  There are negatives but, I feel the potential outweighs them, TODAY.

This is speculative, I. M. O.  I have a portion of my portfolio with those types of stocks. 

Fellow Fools shouldn’t use “The Rent Money” if they initiate a position.

Thanks for the observation,

Sky

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#15) On July 01, 2012 at 8:55 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://www.firerivergold.com/i/pdf/FAUCorporatePresentation.pdf

pg 4. 

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#16) On July 01, 2012 at 9:04 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

Sinchi,

I have a quick question. 

What is a reasonable price or price spread for a Measured Au ounce in the ground?  I am researching an Exploration Stage Company  now with a measured value  of $96.04 per Au ounce. 

I calculated by:

# of shares authorized X share price divided by Measured Resource Au ounces.   I come up with $96.04.

Thanks,

Sky

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#17) On July 01, 2012 at 6:00 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

Tidbits:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ivanhoe-mines-shareholders-appoint-two-011100276.html

Ivanhoe shareholders also approved changing the company's name to Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. The new name is anticipated to become effective on or about August 1, 2012. The company's new trading symbol on the Toronto Stock Exchange, the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ Stock Market will be TRQ and is anticipated to take effect on or about August 6, 2012.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mongolian-coal-mine-sought-china-094125210.html

http://www.chinagoldintl.com/s/News.asp

Endeavour Silver and AuRico Gold Extend Closing of the Purchase/Sale of the El Cubo Silver-Gold Mine and the Guadalupe y Calvo Gold-Silver Project to July 13, 2012

6/29/12

 

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/energystockchannel/2012/06/21/aurico-gold-shares-cross-below-book-value/?partner=yahootix

Sky

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinchi 

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#18) On July 03, 2012 at 10:41 AM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Magellan Minerals up big today !

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#19) On July 04, 2012 at 7:14 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

# 10

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/petaquilla-minerals-ltd-announces-preliminary-145600381.html

Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. Announces Preliminary Fourth Quarter and Annual Results of Fiscal 2012

 

7/3/12

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#20) On July 05, 2012 at 7:22 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/3_John_Embry_-_Fixes_From_The_70s_Wont_Stop_This_Disaster.html

 

7/3/12

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#21) On July 05, 2012 at 7:22 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-poised-drop-ecb-seen-002507360.html;_ylt=AlPHHOqqfiRxkjiIetkqNRak3YdG;_ylu=X3oDMTN0dGFubGQzBG1pdANTZWN0aW9uIExpc3QEcGtnAzA3NjZiMDZkLTVkNmQtMzhkMy04MzcyLTYzMTUxZGM2ZmYzNARwb3MDNQRzZWMDTWVkaWFTZWN0aW9uTGlzdAR2ZXIDMjYyNWE2ZDAtYzY4NC0xMWUxLWFmNzItNGZiMjg0OGFhYTI1;_ylg=X3oDMTJub3ZjdTU0BGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDYTM5NDgyODUtYTQzZS0zNzMwLWJkMmQtMDBjYmFhMzRmYTU3BHBzdGNhdANuZXdzBHB0A3N0b3J5cGFnZQ--;_ylv=3

Gold Poised to Drop as ECB Seen Cutting Interest Rates

7/4/12

“Gold holdings in exchange-traded products expanded to a record 2,412.42 metric tons on July 3, Bloomberg data show. Holdings have risen every year since at least 2004.”

 

Hmmmm.

Sky

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinchi

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#22) On July 05, 2012 at 10:28 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://www.ryepatchgold.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=533658&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Rye-Patch-Announces-1.28-Million-ozs-of-Gold-in-the-Measured-Indicated-Cate...

 

June 27, 2012


Rye Patch Announces 1.28 Million ozs of Gold in the Measured & Indicated Category & 0.54 Million ozs of Gold in the Inferred Category Contained in an Open Pit Configuration on the Wilco Project

 Vancouver, British Columbia, June 27, 2012 - Rye Patch Gold Corp (TSX.V: RPM; OTCQX: RPMGF; FWB: 5TN) (the "Company") announces the resource update on its wholly owned subsidiary, Rye Patch Gold US Inc., 100% controlled Wilco project located along the Oreana gold and silver trend.

HIGHLIGHTS:

Using $1,200 per ounce gold and $20 per ounce silver, the in-pit resource returned 1.28 million ounce of gold and 12 million ounces of silver in the measured and indicated category; The measured and indicated resources increased by 86% over the May 11, 2009, resource estimate; and The resources are within two Whittle optimised pits located 1 kilometre apart.

 

Sky

Long and Strong Rye Patch

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