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alstry (35.42)

The Slowdown Cancer Spreading

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August 28, 2008 – Comments (4)

But why listen to Dell's CFO when you can listen to the happy folk:

Chief Financial Officer Brian Gladden added that Dell also is seeing a slowdown in tech spending that is beginning to metastasize.

"It really started with big corporations, and we've seen slowing in state and local government spending, small to medium sized businesses as well," Mr. Gladden said in a conference call with reporters.

The company expects "continued conservatism" in business tech spending in the U.S. as well as Europe and "several countries in Asia."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121995360853280689.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo

"Continued conservatism?"......is that like a compassionate conservative who bombs the crap out of the wrong country??????and makes sure to keep bombing the country after he learns he screwed up?????

The language is getting more and more creative.  The result is inevitable....as revenues slow over an unprecedented pile of debt.......more and more will get fired and more and more will default.

Pretty soon most American municpalities will be forced to declare bankrutpcy....is there a way to short muni bonds?????

If you got money.....pretty soon your Uncle will be calling.....since few will be able to pay......it will be your Patriotic duty to give it ALL to him......don't say Alstry didn't warn you.....comrade.

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 28, 2008 at 9:59 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

THE LARGEST MUNICIPAL BK IN AMERICAN HISTORY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?????????

After months of failed negotiations with creditors and counterparties to its troubled sewer debt, Jefferson County, Ala., could face a seemingly inevitable bankruptcy filing as soon as Friday.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121993152522279693.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

Likely the second, after Vallejo CA, in a long long parade of municipal BKs.

Should we be green thumbing municipal insurers.....anyone have a comprehensive list for your caps buddy?

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#2) On August 28, 2008 at 10:05 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

DEFLATION/DEPRESSION on the way???????

Overall, resort properties across the U.S. last month saw a half-percentage-point decrease in daily rates from a year earlier, the most recent data available, according to Smith Travel Research. It was the first decline since 2003. Occupancy rates have dropped, too. In Phoenix, for example, hotels are running at about 64% occupancy so far this year, compared with 71% a year earlier. In Virginia Beach, Va., hotel occupancy so far this year was down about 8% from a year earlier.

Bargain hunters traveling to popular vacation spots in Florida, Arizona or Hawaii will likely have the best luck finding deals over the next few months, as leisure-travel destinations are expected to see the biggest flight-capacity cuts -- and resulting airfare jumps. Some hotels are slashing rates and throwing in extras (like a fourth night, or meals, free). Other are rolling back their usual annual rate increases for the first time in years.

In Palm Springs, Calif., hotel occupancy is down more than 6% so far this year. In April, the resort town lost its direct flights from Houston on Continental Airlines Inc. And with rising gas prices, "our drive market has been off this summer, no question about it," says Jeff Beckelman, the chief executive of the area's convention and visitors bureau. As a result, last week, the tourism organization began touting promotions with discounted hotel rates as low as $89 a night, and resort credits for $100 to spend on spa treatments and golf rounds on a new Web site, pshotdeals.com. "We've been very aggressive," Mr. Beckelman says.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121988432416478253.html?mod=hps_us_at_glance_pj

Less demand=Lower Prices=Price Deflation

Demon....just trying to flag some good deals for you.......turnabout is fair play.....your caps buddy, Alstry

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#3) On August 28, 2008 at 10:44 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

MOBILITY BEING SHUT DOWN IN AMERICA and around the world!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Because of our large geographical footprint and lack of public transportation, no country in the world economically depends on cheap mobility as the United States of America.

High fuel prices are constraining American's ability to drive to and from work.  Now Airlines are shutting down, cutting back flights, and fares are skyrocketing above the clouds pricing many out of flying.

Less mobility=less commerce=less demand=lower prices=more  defaults=lower prices=price  deflation

Thousands of passengers due to fly with Zoom have been told to rebook with other carriers, and to contact credit or debit card issuers about refunds.

Zoom, which has flown since 2001, employs 450 staff in Canada and 260 staff in the UK.

It operated flights from London Gatwick, Glasgow, Manchester, Cardiff and Belfast, as well as Paris and Rome.

And it flew to eight destinations in Canada, New York, San Diego, Fort Lauderdale and Bermuda.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7586654.stm

Over the next month or two, the major airlines are expected to announce the majority of flight cuts -- leaving some hotels and vacation destinations bracing for the bad news. In Orlando, where flight capacity is expected to drop by as much as 12%, the local visitors bureau has formed a task force called Air Team Orlando that will meet with the airlines, partly to lobby against declines.

Already, demand for flights seems to be easing. The Air Transport Association of America forecasts that 16 million passengers will travel on U.S. airlines this Labor Day weekend, down about 6% from last year -- the first drop since 2002.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121988432416478253.html?mod=hps_us_at_glance_pj

Travel contracting, highly leveraged hotel industry squeezed, resort cities feeling pain, IT spending cuts metasticizing, Bankrutptcies growing, tax revenues evaporating, families can't make ends meet, unemployment increasing....and debt increasing as credit is getting tighter and tighter.

When will enough debt default to bankrupt our entire financial system??????  Remember, our banks are leveraged 10, 20, and 30 to one and more.

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#4) On August 28, 2008 at 11:06 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

FORCLOSURES GONE PRIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Is our financial system in jeopordy?????

HOPE NOW’s monthly data shows that during July, foreclosures were initiated on 105,000 prime borrowers and 92,000 subprime borrowers. Prime foreclosure starts in July were well more than double the 51,000 recorded one year earlier, and up almost 10 percent from June; in comparison, subprime foreclosure starts in July were up 22 percent from one ago, and up 10 percent month-over-month as well.

“It’s easy for lawmakers to paint a picture of poor borrowers taken advantage of by big, bad lenders,” said one source, a bank executive that asked not to be named. “But that story falls apart when you start to see even those higher up the credit ladder struggle.”

For both prime and subprime borrowers, July’s foreclosure start totals were the highest since HOPE NOW began collecting data last year; while such a jump likely reflects seasonal trends, seeing the trend towards increased foreclosures emerge a month or two earlier than most experts would usually expect is a telling signal that current market turmoil has yet to run its course.

And for prime borrowers, in particular, it appears that things will get much worse before they get better.

Why this is likely to be the case lies in surging use of repayment plans by servicers dealing with prime borrowers — HOPE NOW’s data shows that 57,822 troubled prime borrowers received a repayment plan in July, equal to 72.3 percent of all workouts completed during the month. In comparison, just 48 percent of troubled subprime borrowers were placed into similar repayment plans, with servicers favoring loan modifications instead.

A similar reliance on repayment plans earlier on in the subprime credit cycle has proven to be at best a mixed blessing for investors, as HW covered in early January. On July 16, Moody’s Investors Service noted that 42 percent of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages modified during the first half of 2007 had become 90 or more days delinquent by the end of March 2008. That number was well north of 50 percent when looking at previously-modified loans 60 or more days delinquent.

Which means that a loss mitgation department’s heavy reliance on repayment plans for prime borrowers — either to keep roll rates acceptable, or because resources are being applied more directly towards subprime borrowers — could be setting up some servicers, and their investors, for a nasty surprise not too far down the road.

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/08/28/prime-foreclosure-starts-surge-past-subprime-in-july/

Sure, things are getting better.  Prime is 10X bigger than subprime and Cramer calling a bottom???  You think his ex employer Goldman Sach's or a few of his buddies would like to short some shares to you????

NEVER BEFORE!!!!!!!!!!

NEVER BEFORE!!!!!!!!!!

.....has over $10 Trillion dollars of debt been under such distress.  This does not even include distressing commercial real estate debt, distressing municipal debt, distressing corporate debts......Just prime mortgages exceeds the total savings deposits in every bank in the United States!!!!!!!!

If they go....do we go???????  Not a single credible analysis on this subject by our Fed???

And last year Big Ben was telling you this was a $25 Billion dollar issue when some of us were warning it was going to be in the hundreds of billions for sure and likely in the trillions???

As yourself why are you being lied to.......maybe to be called comrade soon????

Good luck to us all.

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