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The Solar Industry

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September 05, 2009 – Comments (16)

Yves has a post about increased competition on solar energy.  I actually had a solar underperform that I closed out this week, positive, after going about -200% for a while.

From what I had read about the solar industry when I was looking at those stocks was the conversion rate was around 10%, which was considered wonderful given conversion rates were in the 1% range.

I don'thave the source, but an article I was reading said China is up to 15.6% conversion rate with their technology and the estimates on price was that it was now competitive with current sources of electric energy.   Add to that the lower wages in China and Germany's solar industry will be taking a big hit.

16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 05, 2009 at 1:54 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Add to that the lower wages in China and Germany's solar industry will be taking a big hit.

Thanks for the laugh. I have lived most of my life in Germany and I have never heard anyone saying something like lower wages in "China and Germany", no matter what precedes and what follows this fragment.

Why don't you add some new calls? I think I have asked you this a few months ago and I don't think you answered. I am the one who said that in his imagination Canadian school teachers spend their free time sitting in front of their block house, hehe ...

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#2) On September 05, 2009 at 1:55 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

lower wages in "China and Germany"

"lower wages in China and Germany"

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#3) On September 05, 2009 at 1:57 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

saying -> say

Sorry for the sloppiness, it is early morning in Germany. I am currently wearing a Vancouver 2010 shirt.

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#4) On September 05, 2009 at 2:08 AM, kaskoosek (46.91) wrote:

I totally agree with porty on this one.

 

:D 

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#5) On September 05, 2009 at 2:41 AM, awallejr (81.04) wrote:

 "I am the one who said that in his imagination Canadian school teachers spend their free time sitting in front of their block house, hehe ... "

That was actually pretty funny. Rec to Port heheh.

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#6) On September 05, 2009 at 9:11 AM, starbucks4ever (97.90) wrote:

Theoretically you can have a conversion rate north of 40%. How much such a conversion device will cost is another story.

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#7) On September 05, 2009 at 10:06 AM, gembree (99.89) wrote:

"Add to that the lower wages in China, and Germany's solar industry will be taking a big hit."

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#8) On September 05, 2009 at 10:07 AM, gembree (99.89) wrote:

Aw dang, that is what I get for taking someone seriously, isn't it.

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#9) On September 05, 2009 at 10:14 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Just in case this information did not "come across". If the German economy is famous for one thing it is the extremely high wage level that is probably only surpassed by that of Switzerland and some sub-million-inhabitant countries.

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#10) On September 05, 2009 at 10:22 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

a similar but unrelated sentence.

-----------------

The average citation rate of Hungarian neuroscience papers published in the year 2000 (5.8) was exceeded only by that of Switzerland (6.5), Sweden (6.2) and Denmark (5.9); scientific superpowers like the USA (5.5), the UK (5.4) and Germany (5.4) all lagged behind.

----------------- 

(from here)

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#11) On September 05, 2009 at 12:51 PM, BravoBevo (99.97) wrote:

Deb, way to hang in there.  Thank goodness for TMF's limit orders.  But most of all ... CONGRATULATIONS!  

Really! For your amazing patience in outwaiting the market's dive and recovery, and sunpower's eventual slide, to the point where you avoided taking a loss and actually gained a CAPS accuracy point.

To my own detriment, I don't think I've held any single stock in this CAPS game for so long with such a large negative score during the holding period.  I know the unhappy feeling of looking at the market's unrationality and watching a security's price move against your position when you know that you are fundamentally correct.  Kudos to you! 

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#12) On September 05, 2009 at 4:27 PM, Option1307 (29.98) wrote:

It's good to hear your thoughts Dwot. Nice to see you are still hanging around the Fooldom.

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#13) On September 05, 2009 at 9:54 PM, SockMarket (38.54) wrote:

youre way off the mark dwot.

1) solar companies in China are largely privatly owned (or traded). It isn't the government doing the work here.

2) Suntech, a company I owned a couple years ago has since reached 20% efficiency or so.

3) solar costs are still about $0.30 a kwh. coal/nat gas electricity is around $0.10. Wind power is around $0.11-0.15.

4) Germany does not have cheap labor; cheap and Europe don't go together.

5) the market is down because of the recession/depression. Co's buy PV panels to green-wash, not for financial reasons.

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#14) On September 06, 2009 at 12:35 AM, AbstractMotion (52.81) wrote:

My understanding of the solar market is that the primary force driving down solar panel prices has been cheaper polysilicon prices, Seeking Alpha has a good article on it here.  Couple that with weak demand for at least 2 more quarters and certain thin film/amorphous-Si companies are going to have a very difficult time staying afloat.

Disclosure - Long ENER on CAPS, not very confident in it anymore though. 

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#15) On September 06, 2009 at 10:57 AM, gembree (99.89) wrote:

Keep the faith on FSLR!

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#16) On September 06, 2009 at 5:04 PM, dwot (36.96) wrote:

gembree, thanks for bolding how the statement is written and correcting the poor reading skills.  I am really curious how the people the put the lower wages to apply to Germany, rather the Germany's solar industry, actually finished reading the sentence so it made any sense at all. It does not say it directly, it does imply that Germany has higher wages then China as the lower wages in China will make Germany's solar industry suffer. 

danielthebear, I call goods produced in a country part of that counties industry in that product, and obviously the author of the article I referred to does the same. Why read stuff into what I have written that doesn't exist? 

AbstractMotion, I agree with you.

 

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