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Varchild2008 (84.30)

The Stock Market shall BAILOUT the Christmas Shopping Season

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August 03, 2009 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

Varchild2008 hopes everyone has at least 1 stock that trades UP during the Christmas Season on expectations of increased sales.....  He also is gaining confidence more and more that the Stock Market is at a level DOW 9000+ that can easily bailout Christmas.

I no longer *fear* Christmas even if the C.E.O. of technology company's do.
I think there are enough investors in America that are benefiting greatly with this rocket ship off the March LOWs that could potentially offset SOME if not ALL of the Employment Situation.

Here's the kicker....

If you are unemployed....But, thankfully, you're savings account holds enough cash to get you to stay afloat for a couple years waiting to land a job.... AND you have unemployment checks coming in...

Then couldn't in theory...Investors take their unemployment checks since MARCH and stuff them straight into Stocks.... And then pull some if not all of the money just prior to Christmas Shopping or shopping for the Jewish Holiday or Ramadan or whatever religious practice / non-religious practice you do at the end of the year?

I can easily see that.... Not everyone is that smart to do that..... But some might have been motivated to do it...

I don't expect a BOOMING Christmas season.... But, I love to look at 2009 as if it's 2003...anticipating the NEWS MEDIA to come out saying, "Unbelievably, despite the unemployment situation shoppers are coming out to the stores and buying gifts.  The malls are packed...  Consumer Spending is far beating expectations..."

I can see another Christmas 2003 taking shape.... But, I'm not putting my investment career off the results of Christmas 2009 by any means.

DISCLOSURE:  I own shares of ATVI....which obviously would benefit if Christmas sales far exceeded currently abysmal expectations.

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 03, 2009 at 10:30 AM, lemoneater (74.88) wrote:

Varchild, it is pleasant to think about Christmas since the weather is so hot right now. I wonder how many shoppers buy their gifts a long while before Christmas and how many wait until the last minute. When I buy, Barnes & Noble or Amazon gets most of my Christmas money since most of my relatives enjoy reading as much as I do. I shop at the last minute usually. We have already decided to spend more this year than we did last year since our own circumstances are better and we are not worried about losing our jobs, unlike last year! Also a sibling is expecting twins at that time. (I wonder how population demographics are effecting our economy?)

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#2) On August 03, 2009 at 11:37 AM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

Even at DOW 9000+, many individuals are hundreds of thousands of dollars in the hole compared to Christmas 2007 (weak Christmas sales)...lots of grandparents spending less.  I wouldn't bet on Christmas sales "far" exceeding expectations, but I wouldn't be suprised to see some companies beat expectations due to competitor's bankruptcies, etc...

lemoneater - Many people seem to be doing more and more holiday shopping on Amazon.  I wouldn't be suprised to see them have a great Q4.

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#3) On August 03, 2009 at 1:36 PM, jstegma (29.45) wrote:

If you are unemployed....But, thankfully, you're savings account holds enough cash to get you to stay afloat for a couple years waiting to land a job.... AND you have unemployment checks coming in...

How many people do you know with a savings account holding enough cash to keep them afloat for a couple of years?  You think most people have $50k in the bank or something? 

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#4) On August 03, 2009 at 1:43 PM, automaticaev (< 20) wrote:

ya i feel like i have money now even though i really only own things like equity.

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#5) On August 03, 2009 at 2:01 PM, lemoneater (74.88) wrote:

Yes, I think Amazon will have a good holiday season. What do you think might be a good entry point for AMZN. In hindsight I should have bought it when it was $33. Oh well, live and learn. 

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#6) On August 03, 2009 at 5:30 PM, Varchild2008 (84.30) wrote:

"How many people do you know with a savings account holding enough cash to keep them afloat for a couple of years?  You think most people have $50k in the bank or something?  "

Uhm...Living Expenses aren't all that much for me...

2 years without cutting any of my "Luxury" would only require $5,000 in the savings account and $3,000  in Checking....
So.. $8,000 and I'd be set for 2 years without a Job.

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#7) On August 03, 2009 at 5:31 PM, Varchild2008 (84.30) wrote:

Ok ok.. On second thought.... I guess $15,000 is what I would need to be comfortably in the black for 2 years and still enjoy my HD programming and internet and XBOX Live and etc.

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#8) On August 04, 2009 at 9:24 AM, jstegma (29.45) wrote:

The percentage of people with $15k in the bank is fairly small.  Probably smaller than the percentage of people with nothing in the bank and $15k in debt.

Keep in mind that the "baseline" consumer spending at the 2006-2007 highs was higher than consumer incomes because it was debt-fueled spending.  So even without any job losses, you'd get lower spending because the debt-fueled part is gone.  Then add to that the paying back of the debt, and you go even lower.  Then throw in job losses and you can see there's a problem.

I've been predicting that this Christmas will be a lot more red than green for retailers based on that idea.  

"This world is filled to the brim with unrealistic motherf*ckers." - Marcellus Wallace in Pulp Fiction.

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