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Staka (97.94)

The ultimate CAPS player ranking

Recs

19

September 26, 2013 – Comments (13)

[English is not my native language, be prepared!]

I sometimes use the CAPS player rankings to find new stock ideas. I want to identify the players that have a real edge. "Just look at the highest ranked players" seems to be a good advice. It is not. The main reason is that among these players there are many which just game the ranking system. They use recommandations that always win over time but can not be replicated in real life. I refer to the many players who short Short-ETFs. Due to commissions and other side effects these ETFs always go down in price over longer periods, no matter where the market goes. In CAPS this is free "money". In real life you can not short them or only with prohibitively high borrowing costs. I'm not interested in the players who make their CAPS points with this trick. They probably have on edge.

A small number of CAPS players have their focus on low priced stocks (e.g. <$3). I'm not interested in these kinds of stocks because they are often difficult to trade. Their spreads are higher and often they can't get shorted.

The third category of CAPS players I want to avoid are the ones who have stopped using the system long ago. They are still ranked, some of them very high. They provide no new information therefore I'm not interested to have them in my personal player rankings.

I have created my own rankings list which excludes the above three groups of players. Here is the Top 100 ultimate CAPS player ranking:

  1. translator999 (26./99.97)
  2. PLynchJr (54./99.93)
  3. tenmiles (70./99.91)
  4. LurkyLurky (93./99.88)
  5. cheev (96./99.87)
  6. chty18 (97./99.87)
  7. pencils2 (99./99.87)
  8. Gtrinvestor (108./99.86)
  9. redearth329 (116./99.85)
  10. portefeuille2 (121./99.84)
  11. TMFBent (123./99.84)
  12. portefeuille (136./99.82)
  13. MJKpayday (137./99.82)
  14. TMF1000 (145./99.81)
  15. seanleckey (148./99.8)
  16. jiggernit (149./99.8)
  17. thehammer05 (150./99.8)
  18. ghtw (152./99.8)
  19. zzlangerhans (173./99.77)
  20. TMFCandyMountain (178./99.76)
  21. scampbel131 (183./99.76)
  22. mavericktrading (188./99.75)
  23. kristm (203./99.73)
  24. jvdauron7 (205./99.73)
  25. Quantemonics (210./99.72)
  26. MorseFool (215./99.72)
  27. ValueRider (223./99.71)
  28. wvwheeling (225./99.7)
  29. thehammer03 (228./99.7)
  30. lollard (229./99.7)
  31. shpacr (231./99.69)
  32. portefeuille5 (239./99.68)
  33. lemoyneken (242./99.68)
  34. Mike39272 (243./99.68)
  35. lorteungen (245./99.68)
  36. stockmajor (246./99.68)
  37. ypmstocks (278./99.63)
  38. beatmonger (281./99.63)
  39. Sebastian137 (287./99.62)
  40. KnightofShadows (291./99.61)
  41. dragonLZ (294./99.61)
  42. TMFCHarris (296./99.61)
  43. trackbenchmark (303./99.6)
  44. spirit5458 (304./99.6)
  45. portefeuille4 (308./99.59)
  46. sandvig (314./99.58)
  47. bkb123 (317./99.58)
  48. dperry11 (319./99.58)
  49. pennysplants (322./99.57)
  50. Shouclack (323./99.57)
  51. obstacle2 (326./99.57)
  52. indyjoneses (344./99.54)
  53. TMFBreakerJava (346./99.54)
  54. SureBeatsWorking (354./99.53)
  55. TMFRosetint (357./99.53)
  56. jacobr57 (358./99.53)
  57. nasis (359./99.52)
  58. sportscliche (362./99.52)
  59. poinkie (363./99.52)
  60. DFT2007 (364./99.52)
  61. TigerPack1 (366./99.52)
  62. chk999longonly (370./99.51)
  63. HonestK (374./99.5)
  64. TMFPlatoish (376./99.5)
  65. 12371 (387./99.49)
  66. TMFDitty (388./99.49)
  67. TMFSpiffyPop (389./99.48)
  68. loat98 (393./99.48)
  69. gkratoc1 (396./99.48)
  70. tsperbeck (404./99.46)
  71. LucaC (405./99.46)
  72. Endisnothere (406./99.46)
  73. gtscott11 (413./99.45)
  74. gembreaker (431./99.43)
  75. ikkyu2 (441./99.42)
  76. cubaislibre (446./99.41)
  77. portefeuille3 (448./99.41)
  78. TMFselzhanik (451./99.4)
  79. FeastOrFamine46 (454./99.4)
  80. jmclr (457./99.39)
  81. eljuden21 (465./99.38)
  82. drewbink (468./99.38)
  83. teufelhunden62 (475./99.37)
  84. jcereck (479./99.37)
  85. HealthcareGuy (483./99.36)
  86. RXDOC73 (488./99.35)
  87. echofarmer (491./99.35)
  88. ak1010 (494./99.35)
  89. MaskedMan2007 (498./99.34)
  90. jgunnar (501./99.34)
  91. Irishbetter (502./99.33)
  92. gtfann (525./99.3)
  93. HLChin (527./99.3)
  94. Har1en (530./99.3)
  95. HermanPotter (538./99.29)
  96. chanchanman (543./99.28)
  97. pandoga (552./99.27)
  98. GanznSchmuck (558./99.26)
  99. 2subarus (560./99.26)
  100. jtpaul (569./99.25)

The first number in parantheses gives their position in the original CAPS ranking system and the second number their rating. These should be the players that might have a real edge!

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 26, 2013 at 1:57 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

portefeuille4 and portefeuille5 are no longer active. Thanks for noticing that portefeuille, portefeuille2 and portefeuille3 are non-toxic :)

It would be great if you could reshuffle your list a little by taking a glance at the players' calls (past and present) to see how much value the players provided (How well would someone "following the calls" have performed (maybe compared to a reasonable, player specific benchmark)?). In my case p2 is better than p and p is much better than p3.

I have also made a list of non-toxic players recently, see comment #1 here.

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#2) On September 26, 2013 at 2:02 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

#1 Some of the actual trading of zzlangerhans and portefeuille1-12 can be followed on twitter :)

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23zzporte&src=hash&f=realtime.

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#3) On September 26, 2013 at 2:08 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

#1 It would be great if you could also include great players that don't care about accuracy. hayrettin, for example should easily make any reasonable top20 list. You can find many of those via

http://caps.fool.com/Stats.aspx -> Top Outperform Players.

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#4) On September 26, 2013 at 2:11 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

vanamonde says:
I have self-regulated away from all the ETFs and unshortable .ob/pk stocks. Let’s see how long before the unfortunate onslaught of these in CAPS will take me from top 100.

(from his profile)

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#5) On September 26, 2013 at 3:24 PM, Staka (97.94) wrote:

I have not mentioned it but I have not assembled the list manually. I did it via a small script which I programmed. There is no subjectivity in the list.

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#6) On September 26, 2013 at 3:25 PM, JohnCLeven (81.95) wrote:

I’ve enjoyed following Valuemoney, Valuemoneygreen. PLynchJr, Elcid16, Elcid24, ikkyu2, dreamjob, and NovaTodd. Also awallejr and MegaShort are very active, and often provide good discussions/comments. Also, it’s really easy to overvalue the CAPS score. The best metrics IMO are 1) accuracy and 2) average pick per score. Any currently active player, with accuracy over 70%, and average pick score over 5 is worth checking out IMO

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#7) On September 26, 2013 at 3:31 PM, TMFBlacknGold (98.98) wrote:

Ah man! I'm not on the list! I'll try harder from now on ;)

 --Maxxwell 

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#8) On September 26, 2013 at 3:33 PM, TMFBlacknGold (98.98) wrote:

Also, buffetjunior is one of my favorites who is not included above. Worth checking out.

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#9) On September 26, 2013 at 3:43 PM, Staka (97.94) wrote:

TMFBlacknGold, you are at position 140 in the list:

   140. TMFBlacknGold (714./99.05)

For buffetjunior I see no CAPS activity at all:

   http://my.fool.com/profile/buffetjunior/activity.aspx?source=iersitlnk0000002

 

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#10) On September 26, 2013 at 11:45 PM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

I pretty much only follow 3 people on CAPS now and quietly do my own thing with my valuemoneygreen caps page. JohnCLeven, PLynch Jr, and like hearing what MegaShort has to say. JohnCLeven does both.... picks and says something worth hearing. PLynch Jr is for ideas only and MegaShort is usually spot on with what he says for the most part in my opinion.

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#11) On September 27, 2013 at 2:03 PM, MKArch (99.71) wrote:

A few rec's vacillating between red and green changes my rank by a lot these days but it looks like I would have landed about in the top 1/3 of your list if I made it through the screen. I played the ETF for a bet on a recovery early 2009 and let as many as I could ride to this day but they only account for about 1/3 of more score and I haven't rec'd any new ETF since that time period. Just out of curiousity  what was your cut off for screening out players who used ETF'S? Or was it the fact I haven't made a new rec in a few months (nothing worth rec'ing)?

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#12) On September 28, 2013 at 1:38 AM, Staka (97.94) wrote:

MKArch you are out because you have shorted more than three inverse stock ETF's. Activity becomes only an issue if an account shows no new picks in more than 15 months (to keep the ones in who do yearly changes).

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#13) On September 28, 2013 at 10:07 AM, MKArch (99.71) wrote:

Thanks Staka, I was wondering what the cut off was with ETF's. I definitely had more than 3.

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