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dragonLZ (99.47)

The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator is back...

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July 27, 2010 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: SH , EEP

I swear just a few days ago I wanted to write a post on how Alstry must been kicking himself in the groin (it can be done, trust me) for closing all of his picks back in April. 

I often thought of him as the market was freefalling during the months of May and June. I'm sure that if he hadn't closed his picks (given up / capitulated / chickened out) he would easily had his 99+ rating back in a matter of days. And I'm sure he knew that too. 

How painful must have been for him to watch the market falling down as a rock, and to see all the other perma-bears come back so strongly? With no picks of his own? For somebody who always knows what's gonna happen next (and who likes to call the rest of us SHEEP for not being as wise and gifted as he is)?

Today, I noticed he's back. He opened 10 picks yesterday and all of them are green thumb calls on 3X Bear ETFs.

You know what that means my fellow Fools (SHEEP): It's time to go long like there is no tomorrow...ALL IN...

 

p.s. I apologize if someone else already had a post on this. 

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 27, 2010 at 11:22 PM, awallejr (79.90) wrote:

Well at least he rejoined the game, but green thumbing 10 3x bear ETFs is simply gambling hard on a direction as opposed to actually giving informative suggestions to an investing community. 

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#2) On July 27, 2010 at 11:31 PM, dragonLZ (99.47) wrote:

Well at least he rejoined the game, but green thumbing 10 3x bear ETFs is simply gambling hard on a direction as opposed to actually giving informative suggestions to an investing community. 

I think he's most likely received some confidental information that the end of the world just started yesterday (or will start tomorrow). That's why he's back with ten 3X Bear ETFs.

He's probably thinking that's all he needs to get back to 99 rating: 1,00 points (100 points on each pick) + 100% accuracy.  

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#3) On July 27, 2010 at 11:42 PM, TMFBabo (99.99) wrote:

He didn't green thumb all bear ETFs.  He green thumbed pairs of bull/bear ETFs: TYH/TYP, TNA/TZA, etc.  That's a losing proposition due to the decay; you're supposed to red thumb in pairs if you go that route.

Also, I doubt he ever would've recouped his points from his March 2009 green thumbs on 3x bear ETFs.  Even if he kept his picks open and the market crashed in 2010 to below March 2009 levels, FAZ had already decayed too much for him to recoup losses.  Those picks were underwater for good.

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#4) On July 27, 2010 at 11:52 PM, MarketWhisperer (91.76) wrote:

He didn't green thumb all bear ETFs.  He green thumbed pairs of bull/bear ETFs: TYH/TYP, TNA/TZA, etc.

You are right, babo. I missed that.

It looks like he's again doing something we SHEEP don't understand...

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#5) On July 28, 2010 at 12:41 AM, Eudemonic (65.96) wrote:

There's a question and answer column in this month's Inc. magazine. A lawyer wrote wanting to know how he can put "service" in his profession. The response from the advisor was "Don't offer any business advice."

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#6) On July 28, 2010 at 1:31 AM, Tastylunch (30.00) wrote:

to be fair Alstry's decision may be completely un-market related-

this post (and one by TDRH which seems to have been deleted) I suspect may be the real cause of his behavior...

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/click-on-me-click-on-me/424687

somebody wants to protect access to his soapbox methinks...

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#7) On July 28, 2010 at 7:15 AM, MoneyWorksforMe (< 20) wrote:

I believe he's back only due to there being an increasing amount of popularity behind the idea that one should be able to blog only when they have CAPS picks. Alstry wants to blog; and he fears that may be suddenly taken away without reentering CAPS.

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#8) On July 28, 2010 at 7:22 AM, outoffocus (24.46) wrote:

Aww man.. DOW to 15000 now.

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#9) On July 28, 2010 at 7:30 AM, ryanalexanderson (< 20) wrote:

The Motley Fool site has a full-disclosure policy.

Please describe the details of where, when, and how you witnessed a person kicking themselves in the groin.

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#10) On July 28, 2010 at 7:49 AM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

it's like making no picks  at all in essence they will cancel each other out.He is making fun of the blogger that wants other bloggers to have picks ,so there you go 10 picks that amount to zero picks in reality.........Brilliant!

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#11) On July 28, 2010 at 7:55 AM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

I was actually thinking of using that tactic as a daily investing strategy last week. You buy 2 etfs one pro one short and whichever way the market starts running you dump the loser and take your positive small calculated gain every time.What do you fools think?????????????

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#12) On July 28, 2010 at 8:23 AM, TMFBabo (99.99) wrote:

@ragedmaximus: There is a small decay, so alstry should've red thumbed them both.  They do not cancel out; he will end up with net negative points.  Check out UltraSuck.  He red thumbed these things in pairs and he has 3300 points and 66% accuracy.  The only thing working in his favor? The decay.

@Tasty and others: I agree.  alstry added picks so he's not one of those bloggers with no picks open. 

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