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Varchild2008 (84.15)

The United States Recession is Finally OVER!!



February 28, 2009 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: KRFT.DL , JNJ

That's right.. You hear it from me... One who has ranted and raved angrilly since November 20th, election night.  One who has nothing but heart ache for this Great Nation everytime President Obama opens his mouth.

I'm here to say that with absolute confidence....The United States Recession is Finally Over!

Mark my words.  March 2nd, 2009 is the first trading day on Wallstreet.  I don't care what direction the DOW goes or any of the indexes.  The fact of the matter is the ACTUAL economy... Not the Emotionally driven battle being waged on the floors of Wallstreet, is finally in a BOOM economy.

People are not just going to Shopping Malls this year... People are genuinely happy... They are thrilled to be Americans... I went to my Shopping Mall and I didn't just see an unusual amount of people shopping.  I saw an unusual amount of people "BUYING."  I saw people carrying several bags at once full of stuff.. I saw people buying clothes, toys, video games, jewlery, you name it.

People want to buy.

People want to have fun.

People want to succeed.

People want to stop being miserable, angry, and upset.  People want the President of the United States to shut up because none of what he says can effect them anymore.

Those who weren't buying things were buying food... Coffee..Candy....Lunch/Dinner....Ice-Cream..
Whatever they felt they wanted to meet their needs and desires.

People are buying Homes in Michigan Hand over Fist since December.
The Housing Market has already turned in Michigan since last September!

Foreclosed homes are getting sold.... New Homes are getting sold.  People want more in life and they have worked hard enough to deserve it.

So... Without any further ado.  I am going to "BUY" American.  I am going to send thousands of my money straight into the Market knowing full well we could see DOW 5000...nevermind 6000....

Because frankly.. I've had enough of all the whining and complaining that I've done lately.

America will continue to prove itself resilient and great even under the heavy downward pressures of this current Washington Regime.

Face the facts....  Nothing short of GOD can stop an American's pursuit of Happiness and GOD wants people to be happy.

So Warren Buffet's calls of "Economic Shambles" needs to stop.  He never should have sold Johnson and Johnson and he and his company will indeed live to regret it.

Kraft is getting sold off at new 52-week lows.... Personally... I say that has to stop.  What the hell is wrong with Kraft?  Do you realize Kraft sells more than just Cheese?  They have their hands in all sorts of popular American Name Brands such as Planters Peanuts.

Go out and look at a shelf full of Planters Almonds, Mixed Nuts, Peanuts and tell me you mouth isn't watering... Cause mine is... Excuse me while I go Grocery Shopping for Kraft Products.

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 28, 2009 at 6:34 PM, Seano67 (23.40) wrote:

I hope you are correct, my friend.

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#2) On February 28, 2009 at 6:44 PM, RonChapmanJr (30.14) wrote:

is this a joke?  i'm confused.

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#3) On February 28, 2009 at 7:18 PM, Seano67 (23.40) wrote:

is this a joke?  i'm confused.

I took it more as a statement of hope, and a fundamental belief in Ameica, which I totally agree with. Things will get better, of that there is no doubt. So I agree with all that stuff...

Now as far as the recession being over with right now, ummmm, not so much. There are precious few (if any) economic indicators which would support that assertion, and in fact all indicators seem to be showing the direct opposite. We are in contraction, and our economic output continues to shrink. That obviously has to change before any talk of en ended recession can come, and things may very well get worse before they get better.


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#4) On February 28, 2009 at 7:36 PM, paducah5102 (98.79) wrote:

I was surprised at the release of tension I experienced reading your article.  Tongue in cheek, Huh?

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#5) On February 28, 2009 at 9:54 PM, biotech4ever (24.09) wrote:

You probably see an unusual amount of people buying to prepare for the upcoming apocolypse :) Ok, it won't be that bad but I don't think you realize now just how bad things are going to get this year.I can see the potential for  a lot of civil unrest coming mid to late this year. I would not be shocked at all to see the DOW reach 3000.

The unwinding has only just started. You just saw Citigroup get defacto nationalized and that will happen to Bank of America and Wells Fargo by the end of this year. AIG is hopeless and there won't be much left of it by 2010. Hartford is going to fall and many other insurance companies.

We haven't even seen a big impact from commerical real estate problems yet and they are just around the corner.  Here's a quote from USA today from last november:

But many banks no longer hold the loans they made. Over the past decade, banks have increasingly bundled mortgages and sold them to investors. Pension funds, insurance companies and hedge funds bought the seemingly safe securities and are now bracing for losses that could ripple through the financial system.

"It's a toxic drug, and nobody knows how bad it's going to be," said Paul Miller, an analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey, who was among the first to sound alarm bells in the residential market.

Unlike home mortgages, businesses don't pay their loans over 30 years. Commercial mortgages are usually written for five, seven or 10 years with big payments due at the end. About $20 billion will be due next year, covering everything from office and condo complexes to hotels and malls.

See that first paragraph about commercial loans being bundled and sold to investors? A lot of insurance companies bought into those as well as the already toxic housing subprime bundles. I think in some ways the downfall of AIG and Hartford could possibly cause more chaos then the fall of the banks.

Now let's say we recover by the skin of our teeth and we avoid civil unrest and the economy slowly rebounds. Now the next issue is going to be massive inflation with our 11 trillion national debt which is probably going to be 15 trillion in a few years with the latest budget. We will have no choice but to print out our way out of that mess and we'll have probably near hyperinflation which in itself could lead to possible civil unrest.

Look I hate to sound doom and gloom but we have to be honest with ourselves since the politicians are not. There will be a few stocks here and there that will do well but don't expect much return for your money in equities for a long long time. 5, 10 years? I don't honestly know but I have a gut feeling there will not be a quick rebound this year or next or the next.  Load up on gun stocks maybe? :)



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#6) On February 28, 2009 at 10:44 PM, starbucks4ever (78.50) wrote:

Repost that 32 days from today, and your timing will be just right :)

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#7) On March 01, 2009 at 2:54 AM, dibble905 (< 20) wrote:

I find it interesting that people who seem to forecast tremendous inflation along with statements like "housing hasn't bottomed yet" and "economic recovery will be slow." If recovery is slow, and housing has yet to bottom, where is this tremendous force of inflation coming from.

The only way a tremendous amount of inflation can come about would be due to an unprecedented spike in output or collapse of commodity supplies. In the first case, economic recovery will then not be 'slow'. In the second case, commodity prices will surely fly and the emerging markets of the world will be off-and-running along with a good chunk of the US economy. The latter case seems more likely than the first case, but even then, not exactly a tremendously bad scenario given the current situation. If, on the other hand, economic recovery is slow and commodity demand only starts to recover slowly as well, there is nothing the US government won't be able to handle to surpress inflationary pressures.

So will someone please tell me how 'slow recovery' and 'tremendous inflation' are tied together? 

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#8) On March 01, 2009 at 12:47 PM, Varchild2008 (84.15) wrote:

Well... You have to look at the future and not the fact that both January and February are a mess.

I am thinking that MARCH is not going to be a Positive GDP month either.. Just looking for some slow downs in America's economic decline.  All it takes is seeing our economic numbers lose less than they have in the previous 6 months.

If my hunch is correct.. Retail stores should be doing a whole lot better now and the housing market should bottom this year at some point.

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