Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

The Wax Report - Week Ending 02/17/2017

Recs

0

February 18, 2017 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GLW , FAST , GT

The perceptively managed Wax Ink Portfolio was down 0.8% for the week.

By comparison, the Dow was up 1.7%, the Nasdaq was up 1.8%, the S&P 500 was up 1.5%, the Russell 2000 was up 0.8%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was up 5.9%.

With 316 days remaining in 2017, the Wax Ink portfolio is down 0.2%, the Dow is up 4.4%, the Nasdaq is up 8.5%, the S&P 500 is up 5.0%, the Russell 2000 is up 3.1%, and the VIX is lower by 18.2%.

Portfolio Summary
The portfolio breakdown is roughly 52% cash, 48% equities, and 0% bonds. The current value of portfolio cash on a per share basis is $25.41 and the current value of portfolio equities on a per share basis is $23.27, making the average per share price $48.68.

The average baseline valuation estimate of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $30.62 and the average market closing price of all equities held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $25.89, making the current portfolio growth potential factor 15.4%.

Hydrocarbon Prices
WTI Crude ended the week at $53.40, down 0.9%, while Brent Crude ended the week at $55.81, down 1.6%, creating a crude price spread of $2.41, a decrease of 15.1%. Distillate RBOB Gasoline ended the week at $1.5166, down 4.6%, and Heating Oil ended the week at $1.6364, down 1.8%, moving the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread (two barrels of gasoline + one barrel of heating oil – three barrels of crude oil) / 3) to $11.97, a decrease of 14.3% for the week. Natural Gas ended the week at $2.83, down 6.6%.

Year to date WTI Crude is lower by 0.6%, Brent Crude is lower by 1.8%, Natural Gas is lower by 23.9%, RBOB Gasoline is lower by 9.2%, Heating Oil is lower by 5.3%, and the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread is lower by 30.6%.

Treasury and Bond Yields
The 5 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.88, up 1.1%, while the 10 Year Treasury ended the week at 2.40, unchanged. The 5 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 1.41, unchanged, and the 10 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 2.30, down 1.3%. Lastly, the 5 Year AAA Corporate closed the week at 2.04, down 0.5%, with the 10 Year AAA Corporate ending the week down 0.3% at $3.04.

Year to date the 5 Year Treasury is down 0.5%, the 10 Year Treasury is down 0.8%, the 5 Year AAA Muni is down 19.9, the 10 year AAA Muni is down 10.3%, the 5 Year AAA Corporate is down 1.0%, and the 10 Year AAA Corporate is up 0.3%.

Fair Warning
I am a deep value, long-term buy and hold investor with a minimum holding time for shares in the Wax Ink portfolio of 60 months (1825 days), and unless otherwise stated, I have no position in any stock mentioned in this report.

Disclosure
The Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company is a holding of the Wax Ink portfolio.

As companies file their latest SEC 10-K information, I will be updating my baseline valuation worksheets, so expect to see changes in the average per share baseline valuation numbers over the coming few weeks. Baseline valuation changes noted this week were the result of valuation changes in The Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company.

Baseline Valuation Estimates and Worksheets
Baseline Valuation Estimates are initial valuations which Accredited Investors, after completing their own due diligence, can either increase or decrease in accordance with their individual risk tolerance or investing philosophy.

Financial data used in the creation of each Baseline Valuation Estimate is the most recent SEC 10-K ANNUAL financial data as reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Archived worksheets may be downloaded by going to the Worksheets page at the site and selecting an industry which will move you to all of the worksheets I have updated for the selected industry.

Worksheets
Worksheets were either created or updated during the week for the following companies.

Bemis Company, Inc. (NYSE: BMS) - FYE 12/2015
Corning, Inc. (NYSE: GLW) - FYE 12/2016
Fastenal Company (Nasdaq: FAST) - FYE 12/2016
The Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company (NYSE: GT) - FYE 12/2016

Baseline Valuation Estimates
Baseline valuation estimates are determined through fundamental analysis of the listed company's most recent annual financial information. Because these valuations are never exact, what is presented here is a baseline valuation range. Baseline valuation estimates were either created or updated during the week for the following companies:

Bemis Company, Inc. - $33-$38
Corning, Inc. - $32-$39
Fastenal Company - $34-$43
The Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company - $52-$56

Current Growth Estimates
Current growth estimates are determined utilizing current pricing levels, year over year earnings growth, dividend yield, the current PE ratio, and an earnings growth estimate. Because current growth estimates are EXTREMELY volatile, what is presented here is a single current growth estimate. Current growth estimates were either created or updated during the week for the following companies:

Bemis Company, Inc. - $55
Corning, Inc. - $23
Fastenal Company - $50
The Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company - $103

Current Momentum Estimates
Current Momentum estimates are determined by utilizing current pricing levels, current earnings, year over year earnings growth, estimated future earnings growth, and current bond yields. The use of future anything makes the estimate result EXTREMELY volatile. Current Momentum estimates were either updated or created during the week for the following companies:

Bemis Company, Inc. - $42
Corning, Inc. - $26
Fastenal Company - $26
The Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company - $103

Future Value Estimates
Future Value estimates utilize year over year price changes and year over year dividend payments to determine a stock return on investment. The stock return on investment is then used to advance the recent price year by year for a 5 year period. Future Value estimates contain EXCESSIVE risk because past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Future Value estimates were either updated or created during the week for the following companies:

Bemis Company, Inc. - $70
Corning, Inc. - $31
Fastenal Company - $44
The Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company - $69

Investment Summaries
Bemis Company, Inc. - Neutral - the current baseline valuation and key performance indicators (KPIs) are mixed for investment consideration at this time (Hold)

Corning, Inc. - Neutral - the current baseline valuation and key performance indicators (KPIs) are mixed for investment consideration at this time (Hold)

Fastenal Company, Inc. - Neutral - the current baseline valuation and key performance indicators (KPIs) are mixed for investment consideration at this time (Hold)

The Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company - Positive - the current baseline valuation and key performance indicators (KPIs) favor investment consideration at this time (Buy)


Have a great week.

Wax

Wax Ink is a baseline equity valuation company not licensed or registered with any government agency
Copyright © 2017 Wax Ink

0 Comments – Post Your Own

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement