The windup and the pitch: ATVI
July 26, 2010
– Comments (27) |
RELATED TICKERS: ATVI
, EA
, TTWO
For now, think of me as "Wild Thing" from Major League.

I might get it right sometimes.
But I also might hit you in the face with an errant pitch.
(I'm trying my best, but I'm still an amateur)
Here goes:
ATVI encompasses two great companies; Activision and Blizzard Entertainment.
Blizzard's track record includes eleven #1 selling games and several "Game of the Year" awards. Some of their most popular titles include: World of Warcraft, Diablo, and Starcraft. They are innovators in the industry, and have done a great job catering to their fanatical (and continually growing) fan-base. Many of their customers are subscribers to their online gaming service which ensures a constant stream of income between major releases. It also helps protect them from the effects of piracy because online gamers cannot use pirated software.
Activision has been around since the invention of video games. They currently have a solid line-up record of GIANT gaming franchises like Call of Duty, Tony Hawk, Golden-Eye, Guitar Hero, and more. They also have gaming rights to several of Marvel's most famous characters including X-men and Spiderman. To top it off, they are in cooperation with several blockbuster movie franchises such as Harry Potter and Shrek.
Key Stats for ATVI that are impressive to me (I calculated these figures June 21st 2010):
Cash: 2.695 Billion
Total Current Assets: 4.486 Billion
Longterm Debt: 0
Total Liabilities: 1.998 Billion
MRQ profit margin for ATVI: 29%
MRQ profit margin for industry: -58%
NCAVPS: 2.04
Why I believe now is a good reason to buy:
-Starcraft 2 releases tomorrow (7/27/10)
-Call of Duty: Black Ops releases 11/9/10
-Golden Eye for Wii releases December 2010
-Diablo 3 is in development
-Their last earnings report beat analyst expectations
-They began a dividend recently and will most likely be increasing it over time
-The next earnings report is scheduled for 8/2/10... and I expect good news
-ATVI has enough cash to withstand economic uncertainty
-After the release of the aforementioned titles, I expect their fan-base AND their cash supply to grow significantly
To sum it up...
In my opinion ATVI is poised to pop. People still don't take the industry very seriously... but once Wallstreet wakes up and realizes it's potential, I'm confident that ATVI will see a significant spike in it's share price. It might take several years... but I think this one is worth waiting for.
Disclosure: I own 30 shares of ATVI which I purchased in 2009 for $11.40 per share.
Thanks for reading! I'd love to hear your thoughts/critiques.
~djshagggyd