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alstry (35.09)

The World Slowly Shutting Down......

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January 18, 2009 – Comments (7)

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- In a "Dear Passengers" note posted on its Web site, Lithuania's flyLAL Lithuanian Airlines apologized for the inconvenience as it ceased operations on Saturday, while recommending its customers turn to other airlines to travel.The airline also said more than 29,400 passengers would have to change their travel plans because of its move.

Circuit City became the largest retailer to fall victim to the expanding financial crisis Friday, announcing it will shut down its remaining 567 U.S. stores at the cost of 34,000 more jobs after failing to sell the business.

Report: German economy could shrink by 2.5 percent

FDIC shuts down banks in Ill., Wash.

Gannett to close Tucson Citizen if it can't sell assets

Johnson Controls sees more losses, challenges ahead

And just think....some TMF bloggers are saying we are going to have INflation?????

I am not sure where the inflation argument comes from...but if we had inflation because anyone and their mother used to borrow and spend it in the stream of commerece....it seems logical that deflation will result when few can borrow and there is less and less money in the stream of commerce.

I am not sure how many examples of businesses shutting down, prices falling, and jobs being eliminated I am going to have to give before I can teach the TMF bloggers that price deflation is the current course...so far I given hundreds and hundreds...but obviously that is not enough....yet.

If money starts flowing to the people and business, then Alstrynomics will sing a different tune....but right now it is deflation nation.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 18, 2009 at 2:19 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

You blog the same thing OVER and Over and over and over again and again.  Do you think you have a unique and special view of the world?  Do you think you are specially gifted to lead us out of our valley of ignorance?

Get over yourself.  And for your info, after the credit freeze thaws, the velocity of money flows in the system will increase and the money/credit being pumped into the world's economies will lead to inflation.

Check back in June.

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#2) On January 18, 2009 at 2:52 AM, wb8519 (< 20) wrote:

I think we are having too much speculation and negative views on our curent economic conditions.  CC is going bankrupt because of it's financial condition; how many "Best Buys" do we need?  The banks are where they are because of greed and mis-management; they will pay a price, as we will.....the consumer.  But, we have a new president, we have the benefit of the smartest, most educated people on earth, and we are a nation that solves it's problems; after all, we feed the world, and have plenty left over.  We can park our cars, if we have to, we will still survive; how long do you think the Oil nations will survive if they lose their food imports??  WE can eat our food.....the sky is not falling, never has, never will.........get over it and lets move on,  in a positive  atitude.

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#3) On January 18, 2009 at 2:56 AM, mliu01 (< 20) wrote:

Yea alstry, you are losing me now.

 True, we will have a short peroid of deflation(more like disinflation).

Hyperinflation is comming. Cause if you just do the math. There is no way American can afford to make the money more valuable. Cause American don't have cash. To make cash more valuable will only mean American will have to work they butt off to pay Chinese, Japanese and Arab back. That is not going to happen.

All our govt have done so far are inflationary. This "deflation" thing won't last!!! I don't think it will trun in 6 months. But I am pretty damn sure it will come sooner than you think. Like I told Kark D. You can say whatever you want. Just promise us you will never ever buy 1 oz. of gold and silver. Put your money where your mouth is and keep it that way. And for people like me, we don't give crap what others believe. Whatever we believed before, it is only getting better not worse.

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#4) On January 18, 2009 at 6:20 AM, saunafool (98.94) wrote:

Lithuania cuts airline service and you say the world is shutting down.

Lithuania!

I'll tell you something else, the ski stations in the Alps are having a record year. Why? There is lots of snow.

Where does the inflation come from? Simple, as the Americans monetize their massive bailouts and debts, the world view of the dollar changes so that sellers of commodities (oil, gold, aluminum, iron ore) recognize the dollar for what it truly is--paper with an arbitrary value. The value they set to the paper goes lower and thus the price of import commodities goes higher.

So, deflation of assets, I agree with. But devaluation of the dollar and the associated inflation of import commodities is quite likely.

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#5) On January 18, 2009 at 10:29 AM, alstry (35.09) wrote:

If you guys really belive that inflation is on the way.....please don't let me interfere with your belief.

I call it as I see it.......no more and no less.

People die in war everyday....and different people die on different days.  And each day you report on people dying in war...day after day after day....to the casual reader it may seem like the same story....but to the family rf the relatives of EACH person that dies....it is a very different story.

In an analagous sense, to the reader of layoff announcements, it may seem like the same old song......but to the families of those getting released.....it is a unique and painful trauma each time.

On Friday, tens of thousands of Americans learned they were losing their jobs, that was very different to them then the tens of thousands that learned they were losing their jobs the day before.  Next week, MORE tens of thousands will likely learn they are losing their jobs...to those families it wil be a very different story.

FWIW, if we do go the inflationary route, WHICH I SERIOUSLY DOUBT, because of wage contraints, many more Americans will be forced into bankruptcy because they will not be able to afford basic needs.

And I am sure as I keep reporting, until it affects you, it will seem like the same old song over and over.  But once it affects you, trust me...the tune will change.

And if you are prepared.......then maybe....just maybe.....Alstrynomics may have served a benefit.

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#6) On January 18, 2009 at 10:59 AM, alstry (35.09) wrote:

mliu,

Do you call this disinflation???

From this mornings WSJ:

Strapped U.S. companies, while continuing to slash their work forces, are deploying a once-rare tool to trim labor costs -- pay cuts.

Or houses selling for 50% off.  Commercial rents crashing by 50%.  Commodity prices down 30% and more.......  Gas prices off by 50% and so on and so on....

As I see it wages and prices are crashing...but what does Alstry know???......Alstrynomics is only looking at the facts.

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#7) On January 18, 2009 at 11:57 AM, chris2504801 (< 20) wrote:

Its not surprising to see this happen. When i go into Circuit City, Best Buy, etc.. prices are always way higher than if you buy the same thing online. Often i'll go into the store, check out a product, and then buy it from Amazon and save 25-50% .. I've been using this site to find some good deals online:

http://www.zingsale.com

 It's a free service that tracks prices of products from online stores (like amazon) and sends you an email when the price drops.

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