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TMFHumbleServant (96.78)

Thinking Like This Scares Me

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July 12, 2010 – Comments (9)

I have no idea who this advisor is, but his thinking scares me. He says he is "cautiously optimistic" but "ready to jump ship."

Here's the Tech Ticker video. http://bit.ly/bbe0Sg 

If lots of people are thinking this way (I don't know if they are), then a shock to the market could send an avalanche of sellers into the market. I don't know if this will happen, but sentiment like this makes me nervous.

What do you think?

Fool on!

Dave

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 12, 2010 at 3:33 PM, chk999 (99.97) wrote:

Weak hands like this are why you should have a few limit buy orders sitting at a price you would love to get. Then when a flash crash hits you can scoop up a bargain or two without having to do anything at the time.

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#2) On July 12, 2010 at 3:53 PM, dwot (61.86) wrote:

Lol, that is the way I was for the 10 months of 2007 I that I was still in the market, and I jumped ship more then once prior to actually leaving the market.  I jumped just prior to the big drop in August 2007 and I jump back in before the drop was over, losing about 10% before it rebound about 20%.  Then I jumped ship in November 2007 and I have not gotten back on.

It is amazing actually how cold and calculating and steady I was when I was actually in the market, and now I just don't think I could stomach the anxiety.  And that is just it, I have so little trust for it right now it would cause me huge anxiety.

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#3) On July 12, 2010 at 10:53 PM, TMFHumbleServant (96.78) wrote:

Great point, chk999! Nothing like taking advantage of some major market stupidity with a few crazy-low limit orders. :-)

Fool on!

Dave 

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#4) On July 12, 2010 at 10:55 PM, TMFHumbleServant (96.78) wrote:

That's a good lesson, dwot. Keep your emotions in check while others around you panic or are too exuberant.

Fool on!

Dave 

 

 

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#5) On July 12, 2010 at 11:07 PM, bigcat1969 (92.32) wrote:

The question is are others in panic mode or too exuberant?  It seems like a good chunk fall on each side right now and not many in the middle.  I can see both sides.  Earnings are off to a great start if you dont look too closely and yet housing just crashed and unemployment checks have stopped for the moment for a lot of folks.  Which way will the crowd stampede?

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#6) On July 13, 2010 at 1:02 AM, simplemts (< 20) wrote:

"Weak hands like this are why you should have a few limit buy orders sitting at a price you would love to get. Then when a flash crash hits you can scoop up a bargain or two without having to do anything at the time."

 Don't you run the risk of buying into a horrible piece of news at a horrible price?  TiVo and Skilled Healthcare come to mind (i.e. I'd be happy to buy 25% lower than today's price, only to watch the price come down 50-75%).  With the risk of accounting scandals, lawsuits, product recalls, etc. I would be very careful ever having a buy limit set where I am not actively watching the stock.  That being said, it can be a pretty good system for stable companies that are very diversified (JNJ, KO, etc.) 

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#7) On July 13, 2010 at 1:39 AM, kavunaru (< 20) wrote:

I don't know where these guys were when the market was running up  March April and MF was saying keep some powder dry. When these analyst talk about selling I will  buy and when they talk about buying I will sell.

 This media seems to driving people crazy. I see people buying Stocks in April when stocks are trading at 25 to 30 times its earnings and now with 20% off no one is willing to buy. 

mmm If only I understook the peoples emotions I would have been a millionaire.

Best

naru

 

 

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#8) On July 13, 2010 at 8:47 AM, cabincruser (83.28) wrote:

Well  that analyst is a bit wishy washy , eh ...

he says the Market will go up big if all is okay and go down big if not .... crack analysis from that guy .

so he says he is bullish but ready to jump ship ... and that's investing .... Hah.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-fWDrZSiZs

Sure , Investor Expectations and the 'Read" and inturpretation of the earnings projections can cause a trend to behold,  though there's no cause to be either an irrationally exhuberant no due dilligent cheerleader or hop on the dr. Doom and Gloom troll express .

so if one has a solid company on a Watchlist and a Valuable opportuinity presents itself .... well , with some solid divie paying stocks and other holdings with wide moats and a basket of foreign exsposure and an energy basket , i feel my present portfolio is well positioned and with a little cash on the side,  i'm loaded for bear;^)

Fool on , cabincruser

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#9) On July 13, 2010 at 9:26 AM, catoismymotor (32.76) wrote:

With fraidy cats like this walking the streets those of us that have studied Graham and Lynch will have plently of opportunities to build substanital wealth even on modest money. 

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