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AndreylikesMTL (95.81)

This Bull Market is doomed… to go higher.

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November 19, 2009 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: MTL , REV , AIBYY


Hello everyone, forgive me the grammar mistakes please.

As I understand it, there is a simple mathematical explanation to this “Irrational Exuberance” in the Market. Yes I remember that there was a correction couple of weeks ago to the Smaller, or some people call them (Trash stocks) I do not think that. I am sure in a little time Market will fill back up, and go higher.

Reason #1 New people and their savings.

Almost forgot the Math. As few of you probably heard, all brokarage firms are braking records with lots of new accounts. I can tell you about me for example.I was the only guy among my relatives, that owened stocks before. Now I can name you four more that openned accounts with E-Trade, and started doing it. And millions(do not know exact #) more coming on board. Plus people that capitulated, and got out, will go back in. This is a fact. No one wants to stay a looser.

Reason #2 Bad? Debdt

Every one knows this financial crisis started from Real Estate. So called Bad Debdt made a big hole in all banks balance sheets. But I do not believe it is that bad. It is only bad today, but tomorrow, prices will go up, and the houses will worth more than this (Bad Loan)  

Reason #3 Re-building Markets new Highs

This one I can not prove with formulas, but I will try to paint a small picture.If there was a huge pile of chips on the table, and some body screamed Cops, or something. Everyone grabbed what they could and tried to run, but  than it was folce alarm, blah blah blah, and now players started to introduce all the chips back to the table.As they did that, they would count them, and place on a table in tall (high) stacks (Huge blocks)  as they did this the pile got toller….ho ho ho

Andrey

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 19, 2009 at 12:29 AM, starbucks4ever (77.39) wrote:

14000 target is not that far off. I believe we'll take out 14000 in a few months, maybe by the New Year. Having said that, these stocks are hardly worth 7000. So expect a replay of the 2003-2008 cycle after 2010. This time it will be milder but it will still end with a 30-35% drop in the end. By 2017 the surviving stocks will grow into their valuation and be ready for a genuine bull market.

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#2) On November 19, 2009 at 1:12 AM, HarryCaraysGhost (87.17) wrote:

14000 target is not that far off. I believe we'll take out 14000 in a few months, maybe by the New Year.

Really? I hope your right cause I stand to make a killing.

I could also see 8,000-9,000 Dow.

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#3) On November 19, 2009 at 2:02 AM, AndreylikesMTL (95.81) wrote:

Lots of cheap $$ will help, this is where they will end up.

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#4) On November 19, 2009 at 2:32 AM, awallejr (36.92) wrote:

Zloj if the market hits 14,000 by the end of the year I will sing your praises  Personally I do think it eventually will.  A question of when not if.

And Andrey you must be clicking your heals with MTL.  I played it but sold half when it doubled on me and sold the rest when it doubled again and am regretting it. 

This market is going higher, with mini-corrections on the way (which is healthy).  It isn't about just the US anymore.  It is about how the globe really is becoming more and more integrated economically.  And the general cooperation amongst nations is actually pretty impressive. 

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#5) On November 19, 2009 at 7:30 AM, dbjella (< 20) wrote:

AndreylikesMTL 

I totally agree.   I don't see how lopping 20-30% off housing values, people still with debt, high unemployment and companies folding or getting taken over can create more value in the market.  So, that leads me to believe that "extra" money has been infused into the market.  The extra money comes from the Fed Reserve.  

 

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#6) On November 19, 2009 at 11:57 AM, AndreylikesMTL (95.81) wrote:

dbjella

Money, (Paper bills) did not just disappear. It is moving from vault to vault, but it is still there.

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#7) On November 19, 2009 at 1:00 PM, cubanstockpicker (20.96) wrote:

Reason #2 Bad? Debdt

Every one knows this financial crisis started from Real Estate. So called Bad Debdt made a big hole in all banks balance sheets. But I do not believe it is that bad. It is only bad today, but tomorrow, prices will go up, and the houses will worth more than this (Bad Loan)  

Housing was the major source of income of people who DO NOT REPORT UNEMPLOYMENT. Why dont you check all the housing boom cities emptying out. All the support services that were built around housing expansion cannot be sustained.

Take this into account. Housing hires all the blue collars that actually build the home. Keeps architects working. Mortgage Lenders and Title Agents in addtion to real estate. Since most of these jobs are paid by the piece, as for electricians, or by commission as the mortgage lenders and realtors, they do not report thesde ficticious 10.2% numbers.

In addition, have you calculated what percentage of the housing boom constitued towards the "growth" numbers we had IN 02-07. Another set of paper millionaries ala internet crash of 2000 that just went broke. Underwater and with no where to go, not even the banks are worrying about hurrying to foreclose and are letting it happen slowly.

WHY? Simple, if the banks foreclosed now on all the homes they can legally foreclose on, what would happen to the value? Simply put, the banks are slowly releasing the homes so they can be sold at a low price, but with the mentality that if someone wants the good deal on a house, they need to buy before homes run out. What a joke, oh and we are footing the bill since basically the banks used our money to let them survive longer and give them time to slowly offload the housing GLUT. YES IT IS A GLUT.

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#8) On November 19, 2009 at 1:40 PM, AndreylikesMTL (95.81) wrote:

Cuban

I do agree with you, this is hard for some people, just like in any crisis.

But in the end, everything will settle,

We have a saying in Russian (Кому война, а кому мать родна.)

It means: War, is War only to some people. To others it is their own Mother.

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#9) On November 19, 2009 at 2:25 PM, cubanstockpicker (20.96) wrote:

The unbolded was his Andreys' words, and what is in bold is my complete disagreement with the polyanna mentality that everything is better. Read between the lines, look at the newly incorporated municipalities of 2002- 06. See how they are faring. Try Ft. Myers, Port Charlotte, Port St. Lucie. St Petes, Naples, etc.... Thats only Florida. Oh, which by the way, Construction was 25% of the economy n Florida. Keyword, was. The manufacturing warehousing, professional services and financial activities are mostly housing related.

They are not individual, autonomous and independent. They are heavily linked industries. Especially when lending went to the open market involved a carry trade and largher institutions got on the boat. What are they doing now for growth?

http://www.floridatrend.com/article.asp?aID=49942

Gaining JobsEmploymentIncreaseEducation, Health Services1,046,200+37,400Leisure, Hospitality944,400+15,400Government1,140,500+10,700Wholesale Trade358,400 +2,000Losing JobsEmploymentDecreaseConstruction511,100-76,400Professional & Business Services1,291,100-31,200Manufacturing362,200-23,400Retail Trade991,700-14,300Information155,700-5,600Transportation, Warehousing239,700-5,300Financial Activities535,500-4,700

 

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#10) On November 19, 2009 at 3:32 PM, AndreylikesMTL (95.81) wrote:

Cuban

Yes, I cannot argue with a statistics. Things are tough.

But things will get better, I hope.

 

To be honest with you, there is one thing on the way.

What if there are not enough (new) jobs for US workers, to support their standard of leaving? And if jobs keep drain to BRIC, and other countries?

Things will still stabilize, but at some other levels. Subtracted inflation we will still be better off in stocks, than $$.

Andrey

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#11) On November 19, 2009 at 5:07 PM, cubanstockpicker (20.96) wrote:

Audrey,

Hope doesnt make the markets go up. Oh well at least for Obama it has. But hope isnt a measurable indicator. Things are tough is the understatement of the year. There are sectors that wont catch fire for years!!!!! And I doubt there will be a mass exodus, although I am now a proud dual citizen of my native Spanish Heritage and a citizen of the US. I will come back to buy cheap properties with my newly emboldened euros as soon as I graduate I am moving to Europe. 

And we cubans have another saying

"Cuando el mal es de cagar no valen guayaba verde."

The direct translation is

"When bad things want to take a crap, not even green guava fruits can plug it up"

If you have ever eaten one too many guavas, you are taking the best constipator that nature has to offer.

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#12) On November 19, 2009 at 5:38 PM, michaelaknight (< 20) wrote:

"Hope doesnt make the markets go up. Oh well at least for Obama it has."

Oh...so then it does.

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