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This Doesn't Look Good...



September 14, 2008 – Comments (6)

Since about last June I haven't followed the market as closely as I was following it.  I am not completely sure what it is I am waiting for, but definitely things that people didn't think possible.

Well, there's a little tidbit in this Naked Capitalism post...

 "Update 6:55 PM Reader Jim Bianco e-mailed this observation on the futures trading:
It’s all about Merrill. They need to announce a deal with BAC before the open. If they do not, they plunge to $10 to $12 (from $17) on tomorrow’s open and no way does BAC pay $25 to $30. Then Merrill is at risk of blowing up and a crash becomes very possible."

I guess the biggest concern I have about the whole thing is how the dominos fall...  One falls taking another and so on...  


6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 14, 2008 at 7:44 PM, dwot (28.99) wrote:

Crude is below $100, 99.68 as I write this...

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#2) On September 14, 2008 at 8:02 PM, UltraContrarian (30.87) wrote:

Seems pretty unlikely for Merrill to implode immediately, Lehman made it all the way down to 0.17x tangible book and 0.07x sales before collapsing and Merrill is still at 1.6x and 0.7x.

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#3) On September 14, 2008 at 9:03 PM, MaskedMan2007 (99.12) wrote:

Well I just posted that I think that the market is going to 10 000 (DJI) if it breaks the 11 100 level....

I think too that a crash becomes very possible before the end of the year... it looks like the worst case scenario is becoming reality now just like in the horror movies.

I am just waiting the right opportunity to open short positions.

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#4) On September 14, 2008 at 9:23 PM, LordZ wrote:

Dominos are cool, but it takes but one to set off a chain, however all you need to do is take one out of the chain or superglue it down and you are good.

Gas is at an all time high :) oil stocks are going up as oil is going down.

I love it, I got me a flip video today, gonna make movies... in europe...


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#5) On September 15, 2008 at 4:58 AM, saunafool (< 20) wrote:

Things are very scary out there. The financial pages tell us that many many more banks failed during the S&L crisis. I don't remember any of them being very big.

Washington Mutual

Bank of America

Lehman Brothers

Bear Stearns

Sure, the last 2 aren't banks per se, but they are pretty damned big financial institutions.

Oh, I forgot 2 more financial institutions:

Fred & Fan.

I guess that means we're F'd.

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#6) On September 15, 2008 at 9:44 AM, dwot (28.99) wrote:


I've been thinking Dow around 7000 before the markets settle.  Of course that is open to revision.  So far the monetary expansion as far as I can see was mostly due to credit expansion which is not printing money.  So, I guess that depends on whether money is actually printed and if so, how fast it is printed.  

I think that now that risk is being put back into the markets interest rates will be going up and this crap with accepting earnings in the 2-4% range as being fairly valued will change big time.

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